George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Stage 3 trials need to happen yet and we are awaiting home trials of Sgn016. Sp will be volotile.
thanks CT!
Hi Bosi, the range since 20th July top line readout (with the exception of a huge tree shake on the 23rd) has been roughly 250-350m. That's probably fair enough value when the full dataset has still to be analysed and the next steps in the approval process understood. Unless an unlikely leak happens then it'll probably remain here until we get an RNS.
fair enough - thanks - appreciate the knowledge here!
Bosi.....We are just speculating... There are 2 possible outcomes .
1. A Buyout
2. A Deal/ JV to work with another pharma. This would most likely be
an upfront payment, and then further milestone payments as sales targets are reached etc.
Until we get a RNS there is no way of knowing.....!
It proably hinges on getting approval for Covid 19.......If we
get that before a Takeover deal that would make a cash offer
feasible.. IMHO!
quick question - would the market not be starting to price this into the current sp (i.e be rising) if a buy out rumour had substance to it? Forgive my ignorance - not been part of a buy out possibility before..... not meant to be perceived as or sound negative, just wanting to understand how these things tend to flow......
Absolutely, all (constructive) views welcome and i'm always happy to stand corrected btw! :)
you may be right ... but i just think it is extremely difficult to forecast how many people will have covid 1 year, 2 years or 3 years from now, if not impossible. IMHO, just a lot easier to do this on COPD. Just a view. Its OK to have a different one):
Sparkle, SNG and any licencees will have a pretty good idea of what SNG001 could generate in revenue over the coming months and years for both COVID & COPD. We can do some simple math ourselves and even with the lowest assumptions (cost/orders etc) the numbers are huge! And its not just the current situation but governments will look to stockpile anything that helps in case of further waves or mutations.
Any doubts like approval timelines, COPD progression or proving the drugs use with other viruses would likely be contracted into any deal through milestones.
Also HMG will probably be involved in discussions wanting to pre-order so many treatments which may cover some of AZN's costs.
Sparkle.....IMO Finance Directors are only concerned with the profit....
They are NOT Philanthropists....The costs of a buyout here could be recouped
within a financial year if we have approval for COVID 19......They would not be diluting their
earnings.......on the contrary...
That aside even if we get shares to the same value..there would be no stamp duty or buying costs
so I am sure we would all still be happy as we could sell if we wanted to liquidate the asset! GL!
Its actually quite hard for a pharma to value this company as it has no revenue; thus they need to accurately financially model the likely profit during the course of the pandemic if they want to buy synairgen for virus reasons. The only way to do that probably is to a) work out how much can physically be made in the next 12 months and b) to compare that to what eg the EU paid to secure Rendesivir as a benchmark. That will probably give them an idea of how much they can turnover & their profit. A big pharma would want to return its money on the virus pretty quickly as virus might not be around in 3 years. Thus, its much more likely to be bought due to COPD, which is way more known; will be here for a long time, can return investment over a longer time period etc.
I had a bright idea which i've banged to the zoology dept in Cambridge this morning!! They genetically engineer mossies so that they dont pass on malaria. I'm wondering if they can mutate the virus in such a way that it is relatively harmless...
manifesto.... i dont think any company would want to say 'we did a great thing to save the world - we bought synairgen knowing it would dilute our earnings.' Corporate finance doesnt really work like that...
You have to factor in that we are in the middle of a pandemic....
If SNG001 is one of the few treatment options..just imagine how much a major Pharma
could make .....This changes the outlook from most takeovers...you cannot apply
the same theory...There will be competition....IMHO!
not at the expense of british patients missing out
No-one will offer any price that will dilute their own earnings. That is cloud cuckoo land.
On the AZN board they recognise the importance of a COPD treatment and no one can argue against it, really. If the results are positive of our phase II the impact on the sp will be substantial. AZN knows it.
If there were a bid for SNG from AZN, it doesn't stop a counter being placed on the table by another big pharma from the USA, for instance (to please some here).
I expect the decision has been made.....!
COPD results are known...just being finalised before release.....
Both to be revealed shortly........
GLA!
The US is probably an even bigger market due to their relative bad health, obesity and diabetes. If sng001 was to be incorporated somewhat into a test & treat programme, for those testing positive and fitting the high risk criteria, then the US makes sense.
(America being the biggest western market for this drug and therefore richest/most valuable).
Hate to agree with Nolupus again ;) but I agree an American giant, or a company with a dominant presence there, would be the best outcome.
They'll be the best connected (including political interests - which will be a factor) and best placed to push it as the solution to all America's problems.
Not that any other big pharma deal would be bad...just that might be the way best value is had.
prefer a US partner? Now Ive heard everything
If they did offer £20 per share I doubt anyone would complain..
If the deal is great that is all that matters....It's the detail
that we should be concerned about..Uk or US co. irrelevant IMHO!
Can see viable arguments for and against AZN, as well as several others. I imagine they'll all bring slightly different things to the table with regards payment structure/support for development etc. Nice position for Synairgen to be in.
In my mind It's like when an entrepreneur nails a pitch on dragons den and they get to sit back and watch the dragons squabbling to get a piece of it. We could end up with 1 or 2 licencees, someone could come in for the lot, or we get nout.