Sapan Gai, CCO at Sovereign Metals, discusses their superior graphite test results. Watch the video here.
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Trek, totally agree with your assessment on you Sat 21:51, I was saying the same thing on this board a few weeks ago when the news of Home Trials came out but I got shot down for it, seems people have become a bit more amenable to that perspective
Thank You everyone for sharing your thoughts in response to my post. I appreciate it.
Evgen Pharma held a double blind trial at Southampton and the bod didn't have a bloody clue of results before end of trial.
SNG 001 needs to be administered earlier in the cycle, due to the max viral load happening a lot sooner, when symptoms start. Ideally a positive test result with no symptoms would be the Goldilocks time.
Ghia (20:26)
“Trek - Think we are on the same page here.
I can see the drug being used Pre-emptively as a stand-alone.......”
Absolutely we are. You clearly are mindful of the upregulation issues and the need to ‘move’ treatment earlier in cycle. Now Therein lies one of my major concerns. Given the change in trajectory and timing of the RNS’s did they realise that they needed to be earlier on in the Covid cycle to gather data. Yes it’s double blind, but that’s to users not gatherers.... re read this RNS without the rose tinted on...
“
Southampton, UK – 30 April 2020: Synairgen plc (LSE: SNG), the respiratory drug discovery and development company, announces that it has received approvals to extend the SG016 trial to patients with SARS-CoV-2 in the home environment. The objective is to initiate dosing with SNG001 (or placebo) earlier in the infection cycle, and before severe lower respiratory tract symptoms have developed.In due course, details of the design, implementation and timing of this novel study will be disclosed more fully.
The treatment of patients in the hospital setting in the SG016 study is progressing well, with more than 75 patients out of the target 100 now dosed with Synairgen’s wholly- owned drug SNG001 or placebo. Results from this part of the study are still expected in June 2020.”
You see it explains the sp action. It’s waiting for news. WTF is the next steps, have you changed course, is sng001 so limited that it’s almost useless. You get the gist. Now the BoD made a change, albeit within the descriptor but mid stream. Question is why. My thought is it wasn’t looking so good, never ever underestimate a placebo, others say it’s looking really good so expand the scope.
We don’t know, but my ‘bad news’ is potentially good news coz they are ‘controlling’ I mean steering the data and have thought on their feet and may actually arrive by default at the best use for SNG001. Well that’s why in spite of my concerns I am still invested, but tbh I did reduce, then added and reduced again before adding at 52p. Why. Because this is an amazing trading channel.
It is not often that you can trade a Co that you don’t mind holding. So as I posted before, I have been buying at 53 selling at 60 on an auto trade with the same pot. My main investment though is tucked away at 30p. I guess that explains some of the sp action. Fking traders eh! GL!
Trek
Thanks Trek. Wisdom in those paragraphs.
G
Goose,
“My only concern with the price being subdued is it makes it easier for a big player to scoop us up at bargain basement prices.
The plus side is the integrity of the company is second to none so rather than a massive PR storm pushing prices on maybes, our company is doing things by the numbers,which I'd imagine brings the utmost respect from the science .........”
Rhetorically speaking I have a list of concerns, many I have posted previously and for me the BoD are just ok. I actually think had they been a little more streetwise they could have hooked AZN in earlier. It’s often the case with small caps that they think they can solve world hunger and the big boys will come running. A poor analogy and language but you get the gist. And as posted earlier a quick addendum to the AoA could introduce a poison pill to protect them from a low ball, like e.g doubling share holdings on a bid, there are others.....streetwise.
However, I do agree with you re data. Data rules ok! And it’s the data that will be the deciding factor and what they lack in business acumen they certainly make up for in knowing the importance of water tight data and how not to fk it up by setting unrealistic end points or objectives. You’d be amazed at how many folk under pressure set themselves up for a fall before they start. The respect for data and attention to its detail is smart enough to forgive my other concerns. Usual caveats...
Trek
Using the golden standard verses placebo, any result which could be considered as statistically significant would be a positive result, equals scientifically proven. from my understanding if the patients taking sng016 are benefited by 5% or more against the placebo given the set population then that would be statistically significant. then game on
Trek - Think we are on the same page here.
I can see the drug being used Pre-emptively as a stand-alone.
Early in the infection cycle either alone or as a combination of treatments.
Post infection to manage whatever long lasting damage may be left behind.
If we can get there early enough we might be able to avoid the up-regulation issues all together.
The real money is in the pre and post hospitalisation treatment use case.
robortsmith (1900),
It’s not about being good it’s about reaching the primary end points. This is why imo the trial patients have been carefully ‘screened’ to catch covid19early in cycle to avoid Known ACE2 upregulation issues with IFNb. It’s also why home trials are now an obvious and potentially very lucrative extension to the trial...
These are the objectives at a very high level. You can look up the trial references for more info... “worsening, safety, effectiveness....”
“Summary:
SNG001 is an inhaled form (one that is breathed in through the nose) of interferon beta-1a (a drug used to treat multiple sclerosis). It contains a protein (interferon beta) which is made in the lungs during viral lung infections and which stops the growth of viruses. It has already been tested by a company called Synairgen in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (a type of lung disease causing long-term breathing problems). The purpose of this study is to confirm that SNG001 can prevent or reduce the worsening of lower respiratory tract illness (infection of the lungs) in patients with the SARS-CoV-2 virus (the virus that causes COVID-19). The drug's safety and effectiveness will both be assessed. The study will include patients with COVID-19 infection who are at high risk (e.g. elderly or diabetics) whether in hospital or not. They will receive either SNG001 or placebo (treatment with no active ingredient) inhaled once daily for 14 days. Their general medical condition, levels of breathlessness, cough and sputum (mucus from the lungs) will be recorded every day, along with any safety information.
Description:
The purpose of this study is to confirm that SNG001 can prevent/limit the worsening of LRT illness in the context of SARS-CoV-2. Safety and efficacy will be assessed.”
https://www.nihr.ac.uk/covid-studies/study-detail.htm?entryId=281317
Trek
wonder how good the results have to be for it to do well - worried it may just have a "good" affect but not amazing if so will it proceed - whats the criteria etc?
JSP123......like you im in at that level ! And while nothing is certain I've based my investment on the available information and the potential of SNG. Like you im prepared for a drop if that's it's fate ! After all if there was such a thing as a sure bet we'd be borrowing on our houses lol. As far as price goes ! Things are only worth what people are prepared to pay ! And that pretty much goes for anything in life ! Houses, cars, wine etc.
If the results of the tests are positive and seen as a game changer then the big boys would sure pay for a proven product than gamble millions on maybes.
My only concern with the price being subdued is it makes it easier for a big player to scoop us up at bargain basement prices.
The plus side is the integrity of the company is second to none so rather than a massive PR storm pushing prices on maybes, our company is doing things by the numbers,which I'd imagine brings the utmost respect from the science community !
Better to be in at .50p-.60p should the news be disappointing than in at an inflated £1.50p which would be more painful !
profit*
Its impossble to evan start the valuation if you cant work out the prifit margin per dose, thats the main issue when it comes to valuating it.
There has been a lot of chat on here about the SP going down to 20p if the trials are not successful. I am "heavily" in here to the tune of about 30k at an average of about 61p. Not a kings ransom but a significant sum. I am prepared for the drop and would average down hoping that it would recover over time with the asthma and COPD treatments. No one has really said what they think the SP might be with success. If it will drop by 2 thirds will it go up by the same? Possibly more or less?. I know the answers are just opinions but I feel many of the posters on here are more experienced than I and in a better position to guesstimate the positive outcome. Your thoughts would be appreciated.