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A falling knife at the moment.
I added a few 50-51 then sold them at 48-49 after support taken out.
Next vague support looks like 36 but this is a difficult share to judge??
Everything depends on Friday but I am not hopeful anymore.
Plenty of ammo in my account to buy more, can easily buy 200k shares
On that front Sorrell's been unusually quiet lately, normally can't shut him up but no recent Times articles or corporate shindigs that I'm aware of.
This fall suggests a good old fashioned leak, but hey ho!!!
The market here is very focused on the Operational EBITDA Margin, and obvious cost control in order to protect and improve that margin ....Managing costs in relation to revenue expectations
The margins are falling behind those achieved by Peers, so more decisions need to be made to push down costs in relation to revenue pressures .
...Guidance on new business pipeline will be important, in terms of measuring against Peers , as will comments on new cost saving targets.
..SMS has guided "some margin improvements" which I suspect the markets will test him on....
The drop in Q1 USA GDP figures and associated pressure on the US consumer assumes there is still pressure on the ad market in terms of SFOR´s Content and Tech clients
I think SMS is fully aware of the global picture and I dont think he realistically thinks,at this point, that there will be that much improvement until 2025, so is battening down the hatches and looking to find some margin improvement.
..the US Election uncertainty for most of the year, the geo-politics generally affecting trade and inflation, the FED and general Central bank positions .
... in terms of H2 revenue Outlook, I suspect that is still a little cloudy in terms of getting certain commitments from clients and potential clients
Potential Bulls, will let the Bears do the work... IMO....and save them over paying, if indeed the guidance on margin isnt showing much improvement and the Outlook still remains somewhat cautious .. any sense of confidence is generally pitched at the "medium/long" term anyway
You can almost expect and use a lot of what WPP said in their Q1 :
"The first quarter of 2024 was very much in line with our expectations with performance reflecting the toughest comparator of the year."
Q1 revenue -1.4%, declines in North America and Asia Pacific, reduced spend at technology companies
"Our outlook for the full year is reiterated. We remain on track to return to growth in the balance of the year, supported by an encouraging new business pipeline and the strength of our business creatively and in media, both powered by new AI capabilities, while our simpler structure will drive organisational flexibility and stronger cash conversion."
Always Jam tomorrow with this stock!
Bought a few back....thank you sellers
@RWD - "I agree that the key here is any update on outlook although I suspect we will have to wait until later in the year to get this. They won't want to commit themselves so early, which is exactly right."
This is the one big problem with LSE listings - you can get away without disclosing quite a few details. If you were US-listed, you'd have to put out quarterly profitability figures as well as an annual revenue outlook number either with the PrevYear results update OR with Q1 results update -- with the LSE, meh... S4 is one-third of the year in, but even with a caveat of limited visibility, FY24 revenue forecasts should be given. We'll see.
Sold some and frankly not sure I will buy any back.
But that’s irrelevant here as these boards don’t move the price.
It’s just a discussion board.
Not much on 2024
.. In 2024, S4 Capital said it expects Content to show a profitability improvement and Data&Digital Media to show a similar top and bottom line performance to the prior year with some margin improvement.
The outlook for Technology Services is more ‘challenging and expected to be lower, following a reduction in activity with some key clients.’
Over the medium to longer term S4 Capital continues to expect growth to outperform markets and operational Ebitda margins to return to historic levels of around 20%.
Last week, shares in S4 Capital rose following a report in The Wall Street Journal that it had rejected a bid valuing the company at around $700 million last year from Stagwell, another agency.
It's telling us he's sold out and looking to buy back lower lol.
Rock8 - And what's this article telling us, if you can please summarise for us?
That's a 9% revenue decline forecast, not 4.5% - £1.01b to £909m. I'd think revenue will be H2 weighted and hence Q1 revenues between £210 to £220m is not far-fetched.
"Mkt seems to expect full yr 24 down 4.5%?" --- Nope, Sellside Analyst consensus from 5 analysts is for £909m revenues in 2024, that's the closest that the market can get to revenue projecions for now.
Seems to me that they signposted Q1 in the FY presentation comments. At that time they would already have visibility on the Q1 number. Market should have priced it in but then again any reason to kick this is gladly taken.
I agree that the key here is any update on outlook although I suspect we will have to wait until later in the year to get this. They won't want to commit themselves so early, which is exactly right.
Rock..... "Do you know what the market is expecting Nige?"
No I haven't seen any quarter forecasts. Just my guess @ £220M.
Mkt seems to expect full yr 24 down 4.5%?
The key to note in Nige's revenue figures is that the first 2 quarters in 2023 were the final quarters that saw Y-O-Y growth, and the growth has turned negative since. I'd expect that trend to be negative in the first 2 quarters, with hopefully a pickup towards the end of the year. Nige's £220m projection for Q1, that may not be too far off from what we get on Friday, but the key for the stock price performance is the current outlook for the year overall. There was very limited visibility when the results were announced and if the consensus now is calling for a circa 10% revenue decline in 2024, any upgrade on that number should stabilise the SP, IMO. I'm not saying S4 is a current quarter strength story, far from it. But my view is that the current revenue weakness should be mostly reflected in the 75% SP decline since this time last year.
We'll know more in a couple of days...
Assume it’s higher than 220m?
Do you know what the market is expecting Nige?
Morning Verney,
My opinion FWIW based on lower company revenue guidance for 2024, plus latest analysts forecasts who currently have FY revenue coming in at £909M down from actual £1.011.5Bln in 2023. My guess would be revenue to come in at Q1 2024 £220M.
Revenue 2023
Q1 £261.7M
Q2 £255.4M
Q3 £245.9M
Q4 £248.5M
I will ask the poster on ADVFN if he would post an update regarding S4 largest shareholders. Although, he's not commented for a while.
GoCPI
Thank you for the counter argument. I very much hope that I'm wrong and you are right.
Jcj07,
I agree with your points re bad management ( mostly fiscal ) and that some ad agencies are doing well. However surely you agree that clients have been very hesitant ( and tight fisted ) with their budgets. We are by no means in any sort of boom times for ad agencies.
I couldn't agree less, jcj07. And that's what makes the market - from my viewpoint, I need more like you to be in the market to create a bit more negativity and if there's anything I've learnt from my couple of decades of investing, it's that stocks/sectors climb a wall of worry.
Many a times I have seen this exact narrative that you espouse when stocks are bottoming during a recession, but they inevitably come roaring back. I'm not saying all's hunky dory at S4 and opertionally they could do better, but the valuation is a absolute joke accentuated by a very illiquid UK stock market. Revenue growth will come back and with it, better profitability with all the cost cuts in place.
I watch small global tech consulting shares like Thoughtworks (TWKS), and they're definitely showing green shoots in their Q1 revenues and 2024 revenue outlook. That's a good first sign for me. Q3 and Q4 revenue comparables will be very favourable for S4. Let's see what Friday brings - even small signs of stability will be welcome. I'd be concerned if this fall was on large volumes, but the volumes have been a joke.