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WHL
Tbh, I wouldn't know. I suppose the only way to find out is s ask SEE and hope SEE answers!
Red...I am a little confused with your post.
I tried to check the terms for sales to distributors but as usual with SEE it's a little opaque.
Do we know the terms of delivery to distributors i.e. you mention a X time to be installed. What happens if a sale or installation doesn't happen? Kit returned to SEE or held by distributor pending a sale?
Cheers
JB
That's a good point. SEE now get a larger amount upfront, also the agreement between SEE and distributors (70% of sales now by this route) contains a clause (unspecified) that once delivered the unit has to be installed in X time. So, dependent, on the time clause (and how fast SEE itself installs) any extrapolation from number of KMs could be 1,2.....months behind units sold, which SEE get paid for around the time of sale.
So, yes, Fleet could surprise to the upside.
Since the change to more of a distribution model in Fleet, I'm no longer convinced KM driven is an accurate proxy to back out installation numbers.
I'd be surprised if SEE didn't use # of units sold to distributors as it's metric as opposed to # of installs. Likely to see a time lag from actual sale by SEE to a distribution to Installation in a wagon by said distributor and thus a positive uptick in KM driven.
I'm cautiously optimistic that Fleet #'s surprise on the upside.
Brockwl -
I think the increase you are seeing last week is the return to work after Christmas & New Year. We reached 41.59m km( highest ever) in the second week of December and 38.6m km last week and 39.6m this week. The lowest was 29m km in Christmas week. I think we need a couple more weeks to see the latest trend.
The 90 day moving average may be a good indicator going forward to show if we are making progress. The problem comes when looking for the financial impact.
Regards the days of the week , totally agree Monday and Fridays show the weekend effect
I promised a Fleet update based on KM travelled, and my limited data collection from early Jan.
I've been somewhat worried about the up coming trading update meeting revenue expectations, and having expressed my worries, was dissed by those board members who don't like posters who highlight any potential negatives.
I decided that rather than expend energy arguing with those set in their views and blinkered to any negatives, I'd do something more positive.
So thinking about the upcoming trading update it seemed to me that even if revenue numbers were missed (something I can't measure), as long as Fleet numbers were within or better than estimate, then the market would be much more forgiving, and possibly positive. Hence for now it seems to me Fleet numbers are very key.
So I started to collect the daily KM travelled data, and look at potential Fleet numbers and number growth.
So far I only have very limited data info to use, I believe others may have a lot more. So beware that conclusions from limited data could be flawed.
I've also decided to ignore the days in the week, where KM travelled is far less than the best days. So far it seems that Tuesdays, Wednesdays , and Thursday data is better to determine the total Fleet users, as other days have some weekend elements included which is less representative. (my guess). Again this may be flawed and flatter results.
I have no idea what an average KM per vehicle is, however I remember reading here that Seeing have suggested 250km a day is their estimate. I've produced results below of Fleet Vehicle numbers for 200, 250, and 300KM a day, and leave you to make up your mind.
Last week - If 200 = 31550 250 = 25235 300 = 21033
This week - if 200 = 32725 250 = 26180 300 = 21800
Based on the above I'm encouraged. If the figures can be believed it suggests to me currently we are somewhere between 22,000 and 26,000. It also shows an increase of approx. 800 last week, even using the 300KM figure (worse case) .
I'm not convinced the above can be relied on based on the limited data I have to date, the growth rate last week seems particularly high.
However it has done enough to convince me for now at least that Fleet is highly likely to meet current company estimates, and may well exceed those.
Given the above, I will wait for the update before making any further decisions on my holding. If the above is a likely indicator, then risk/reward is favouring reward.
Interested in others views, as to whether my data assumptions, in particular average KM travelled is in the right ball park, and whether only using the main driving days is indicative.
L
Thank you brockwl. Hoping for a bumper trading update next week. Coupled with an aviation deal, an OEM win and break even to be brought a year earlier.
Definition of imminent on google:
Means “about to happen” unless your PM
“About to happen when they tell us what we can and can’t release whilst the shareholders get screwed and the researchers here work out that we are working with Toyota and Volvo.”
Google needs to update what they think imminent means tut tut tut.
Bauch,
I'm travelling currently, so will try to provide a more detailed response tomorrow. However I've been watching the fleet km very closely since early Jan. Numbers are moving ahead quite encouragingly in the time I've monitored. I'll provide some proper figures tomorrow.
L
Is anyone still keeping track of the km of fleet travelled since the Xmas break? Has it picked up or remaining stagnant?