Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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The question isn't about replacement technology but about the commercial viability of competing or replacement technology. Any technological development to be adopted must be cost effective otherwise the market will simply reject it. And regarding timescales. Well, we don't even know what will happen in 10 months never mind in 10 years. Most of us will be long gone, hopefully
Final thoughts – With the concept of camera based driver monitoring already adopted by Bosch, Continental, Veoneer, etc. is there much chance of this technology being superseded in the next 10 years? Is there indeed another technology already trialed and primed for production in the marketplace which fulfils the same essential functions of a camera based DMS? Finally, has any other company successfully marketed a DMS that seamlessly manages the handover between driver/car during semi-autonomous driving?
A few of my own thoughts from the Proactive interview on 12th February 2020:
Trading Update – H1 mainly derived from Fleet revenues. Paul and Naomi seemed confident that SEE will double revenue in H2 compared to H1 – I really hope that SEE meets its FY expectations but, arguably, the SP is probably languishing because doubt exists around SEE’s ability to achieve its targets and, by de-facto, this has increased uncertainty surrounding whether an extra equity raise will be required. However, if RNS’s in line with Paul’s statements start to materialise, then upfront payments will take dilution off the table forever and RFQ wins will all but guarantee substantial revenue increases for the next 5 years – Thanks to Paul’s confident statements and the corroborating evidence posted daily on this BB, I believe game changing news will arrive in 2020.
Fleet – Paul stated that the 21% cost down Guardian production run was starting now which will help expand Guardian hardware gross margins in H2. Fleet installations on track to meet full year guidance – With the cost reduction now in play, hopefully this will help push H2 revenues towards their target.
Aviation – “Really pleased with how things are progressing” PM, “Crew Training Systems for civil aircraft, military aircraft and helicopters” PM, “Systems flying in aircraft” PM, licensing opportunities “very much live” PM, “early stages of development for aircraft so that is super encouraging for us” PM – Paul seemed to be genuinely excited by the prospects here so I choose to believe that we are close to getting some good aviation news (despite the wait…).
Auto – “Momentum that we built out of CES is really paying dividends for us and we have been investing our time in Japan and Korea over the course of the last year, and we’re feeling really really good about our position there with the tier ones and the key OEMs, so I think for us, Japan and Korea are going to become major markets over the course of the year” PM – I hadn’t picked up on the word ‘key’ before, so that would suggest that Toyota et al and Hyundai are indeed up for grabs. With SEE having already won BMW and General Motors amongst others, the odds are good that SEE will take OEM’s in Japan and Korea… is there anyone else in a better position (genuine question)?
CES – “Very very clear that camera based monitoring systems will be in all cars, and that’s not just driven by regulations… but all of the other technology that’s going on inside and outside of the car relies on accurate eye-tracking… necessary to enable all of the new tech that’s in cars today and will be in cars in the future” PM – The patents discovered by Johnchucka reinforce this statement.
So are we all confident that as per Seeing2020's update that this year will establish our position in auto whether that be 50% or more? I think yes as all we need to get their ducks in a line to tie in with legislation dates.
Thanks for the feedback all.
I have been following the SEE story for over a year and deem it highly likely that 2020 is going to be the year its ‘stars align’.
If SEE takes elements/all of VAG, Japan and Korea, then it could feasibly command well over 50% of the light vehicle market by 2024/25. Combined with fleet and aviation (and the potential hand held device, VR/AR, cranes, ferries, etc. markets), the potential year-on-year revenue growth rate for this company could be incredible.
If I find any other useful information I’ll let you all know. Please keep up the good work.
Jimbo84 whilst appreciating that smarteye are still lurking , now that we have the cheap as chips option as well as the best option for DMS coupled with Dr Mike's appearance on the Bmw stand at Ces and the rapidly approaching compulsory integration of DMS I would argue that there is every chance of Seeing being in every Bmw vehicle.
#imho
Agreed SEE2020 & IF we can deliver & achieve 50% market share at an average margin of A$9 we could generate a contribution to margin of A$450mill + Fleet & Aviation (& anything new & unexpected )we could be generating profits of £300 mill pa .Sounds crazy & the completion will hot up & prices driven down,butvshoukd still remind us of the vast potential here for our company tosucceedc& our SP to be substantially higher .Lets hope PM & colleagues don't decide to sell out too cheaply & too soon.KK was at a low ebb (following TFD) when he may have accepted a12p exit.
Jumbo / BB, the latest Cenkos forecast assumes A$10 revenue, this would be an average with Chip bring higher, but as we move to mass market feels about right to me. So call it A$0.5bn per annum at the 50% of the market.
The cost side is more interesting, what is our cost for Auto ?
1) R&D- this has led to huge losses in Auto as R&D is much higher than current revenue, if they dont win the contracts it's a sunk cost, however I believe Auto is a cash cow as volumes increase
2) SW , in my simple mind we provide a algorithm and the Tier One add it to their overall package, so if the OEM uses it in 10 cars or 10m cars our cost is the same, but our revenue via a license fee per car is many multiples of today
3) Chip, Xilinx do everything and we get a license fee
So my guess would be revenue A$0.5bn with a cost of perhaps A$50m for ongoing R&D
It's a Dog of a business at low volume and paid for by placings, at high volume it's a cash cow
#Team300
We need to be around the $3-4 mark as we now have the best and cheapest solution out there. Volume is the key. Just guessing.
I was also wondering whether anyone/Cenkos knew the answer to MrBB’s question?
“By 2023, the BMW Group will have 25 models with electrified drive.”
Could it be argued that a proportion/most of these models will have a SEE DMS? Seems a lot of effort to go to to then not bother incorporating your new technology.
With GM pushing Super Cruise into a similar number of models in a similar time frame, are we in the process of witnessing the start of a tech arms race (thanks to a lot of the researchers on here, we know a lot of this tech needs/is likely to utilise eye-tracking)? If so, I would expect announcements from all the other OEMs very soon, otherwise, in 2022/2023, their market shares could start suffering.
https://discover.bmw.co.uk/article/the-new-all-electric-bmw-i4
How much per unit do we expect to sell for & how much would the cost be per unit?
S2020
And as Phil stated, the clock keeps on ticking and those decisions have to be made otherwise it will be delays that will hurt the OEM come 2022 and later.
Although we're all disappointed of the lack of news these last five months, it won't and can't go on. It also has to be remembered from a European perspective, that the new RNS will cover all the models from 2022 and onwards. And this will be reflected in the contract size, and mass market penetrative. I think the original Ford contract size, at least A$50 million, will by the end of the year, seem on the small side.
Phil, I have been looking at car production figures, its interesting that PmcG now says "DMS will be in all cars " he has also said "the market size is around 100m cars per annum"
So how many "new" OEM wins do we need to get say 50% of the annual production or 50m units.
So I assume all our current OEMs will expand to all cars, source our CEO said "DMS will be in all cars"
So using the data from the Cenkos report that gives us
GM 7.8m
Ford 6.4m
FCA 4.7m
Daimler 2.5m
BMW 2.3m
Total = 23.7m
So to get to 50m ish we need 3 wins
- VAG (we are either best in Europe or we aren't)
- Toyota
- Hyundai or Honda
So that's all we need 3 new OEM wins, the big two remain up for grabs, we get them and 50%+ will be easily achieved imo.
#Team300
Sounds like we are just what they are looking for, I wonder if the second round of visits is to show we can walk the walk because they dont seem to be buying just yet. I like the facts we are getting from these interviews. I know that he is selling the company and ramping, but thats what we want and I believe he can deliver, let’s face it, its all facts, just a shame the timelines the oem work to arent what we would like. Time is running out for them though, decisions must be made.