The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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And RR that was stated in the original RNS as a maximum - I very much doubt they'll get the full amount albeit not impossible it's unlikely particularly when only £5.3m has been received to date.
TF,
You say
"'I agree very much with your 01.42 re. the motivation behind all his posts."
Just out of interest, could I ask what your motivation in posting is?
Would appreciate other posters view on the phrase "Clinical Update" don't see how unless the market receives an update via an RNS
would welcome views ?
The current percentages are eye-catching ?
https://www.immuno-oncologyeurope.com/cancer-vaccines
Clinical Update on the DC Targeting Melanoma Vaccine, SCIB1 and The Modi-1 Vaccine Targeting Citrullination
Lindy Durrant, BSc, PhD, Professor, CEO, Scancell Ltd.
SCIB1 a DC targeting DNA vaccine gives at impressive 85% response rate in combination with ipilimumab and nivolumab in advanced melanoma. Citrullination occurs in stressed tumor cells and makes an excellent target for a universal cancer vaccine. Modi-1 targeting citrullination is currently in phase II clinical trial
The break out discussion coming directly after Lindy Durrants talk with be interesting
Cambridge Healthtech Institute's Inaugural
Therapeutic Cancer Vaccines
Immunological Advances for Cancer Treatment
23 - 24 APRIL 2024 ALL TIMES BST
The development of cancer vaccines intended to treat existing forms of cancer have been showing real promise with recent advances in the development of various platforms and progress in clinical development. The goal of these products is to provide a patient’s immune system with the capability to mount a sustained response against a tumor, either to eliminate tumor cells or, at the least, keep those cells under constant surveillance in order to prevent expansion and metastasis. Strategies for both personalized and off-the-shelf products are being developed, typically based on neoantigens, mRNA, or peptides specific to cancer cells. Successful advances will require better understanding of numerous topics, including immunological mechanisms of action, immune monitoring to direct development, dosing and delivery strategies, and how such products can be combined, particularly with checkpoint inhibitors. Emphasis will be placed on programs that have already reached the clinic.
Interactive Breakout Discussions
Interactive Breakout Discussions are informal, moderated discussions, allowing participants to exchange ideas and experiences and develop future collaborations around a focused topic. Each discussion will be led by a facilitator who keeps the discussion on track and the group engaged. To get the most out of this format, please come prepared to share examples from your work, be a part of a collective, problem-solving session, and participate in active idea sharing.
TUESDAY, 23 APRIL 2024, 15:15-16:00
Breakout Discussions with Afternoon Refreshments
THERAPEUTIC CANCER VACCINES
TOPIC: The Pros and Cons of Personalized vs Off-the-Shelf Cancer Vaccines
Jonathan Kwok, CEO, Infinitopes
I'm afraid Paul is quite right. If you pump $600m dollars into a company it is only worth that amount on the company valuation so long as you don't spend any of it. This can't be the case with Scancell who have far greater cash needs than they have. $600m is a drop in the ocean.
The only time revenue has a multiplier as far as valuation goes, is where that revenue stream is forecast to be maintained year on year. This Genmab is a one off apart from a single digit royalty. Maybe this will be worth $600 per year eventually.
Hang on - I suggested it could be worth 5x the current price! Some posters here need a reality check.
Dragon - whilst Paul 23.01 is quite right about 'IMO', I agree very much with your 01.42 re. the motivation behind all his posts. As I've no time to waste on this I'll filter him.
I remain optimistic and am looking forward to news !
If you don’t believe in the stock, why invest, why post. Very bizarre. What’s your motivation?
Everything anyone writes on boards such as these is "IMO" - so never a need to put it in any post.
PaulBrains, you forgot to put IMO at the end, as that's all your post is.
IMO, there is every chance of a multi-pound share price - I'm not going to repeat the reasons, we all know them.
Yes there will be dilution / partnering, but hopefully at increasing levels as data comes in and the sp rises.
You have a basic misunderstanding of the biotech model if you think stella returns are not possible - most biotechs fail, but those that succeed generate fantastic returns for investors.
The Genmab deal is worth nowhere near £600m to the valuation of the business.
That is absolute nonsense of the highest order.
To date £5.3m has been generated in terms of revenue.
The most it could possibly generate in terms of revenue is $624m under a lot of work and cost.
Incrementally you might argue there's somewhere between £50m and £200m if you're very lucky.
I can see a path to a £500m business but even that won't be easy.
Any ideas of £1+ are fantasy in my view and whilst there is the opportunity for great returns from these levels there is likely to be further dilution and challenges at all stages.
Good luck to one and all , clearly Scancell have something worth listening to ?
I think the data arriving in 2024 will win that argument out right.
If Redmile are convinced by the results then Low Ball is off the table.
Scancell have so many ‘shots on goal’ to turn this derisory share price around.
The scepticism by the market is partly because the enthusiasm shown at the 2022 AGM that deals could be done on AvidiMab and GlyMab just haven’t landed in the anticipated way. The shared glimpses of future happiness to rally the troops have until now only produce one deal with a very close ally, GenMab.
The SCOPE trial is on track to move to a Registration Trial, iSCIB+ is now in patients and Scancell are out singing its praises.
The progress of the ModiFY trial is currently veiled from our view but what little we know is all positive.
Patience is required just a few months longer, then we can have a proper debate on the direction of travel.
Ruck, you make valid points....certainly no secret that I would jump at 50p !!
"Fair enough RR. I just don't see Redmile/Vulpes accepting an offer that low IMO."
Why not? They would have exactly the same decision- certain 50p now or a possible £2 in x years.
Redmile don't have a controlling interest and Vulpes average is around 7.5p so 50p might be tempting.
"We all have different personal circumstances and investment goals. If I had the choice of a guaranteed 50p next week versus a chance of £2.40 in 5 years, I'd go for the 50p. That's not because I don't think £2.40 is achievable but simply because my personal circumstances mean the money would be more use earlier rather than later. Plus the fact I've already held for 12 years!"
Fair enough RR. I just don't see Redmile/Vulpes accepting an offer that low IMO.
Morning Chester,
"This is an eternal debate between those who are optimistic and confident that Scancell’s science is going to be a new breakthrough in the treatment of cancers and those that see the very real possibility that the road ahead is populated with ‘what if’s’ and ‘maybe’s’. "
It's interesting that you don't say "optimistic" vs "pessimistic". It's an important point because I believe anyone who has put their hard earned cash into this Must have a degree of optimism that it will ultimately be successful.
The difference is unbridled optimism based on blind faith versus tempered optimism based on facts.
Morning,
This is an eternal debate between those who are optimistic and confident that Scancell’s science is going to be a new breakthrough in the treatment of cancers and those that see the very real possibility that the road ahead is populated with ‘what if’s’ and ‘maybe’s’.
Thankfully the next 6 / 9 months will make the road ahead so much clearer.
I’m definitely a signed up ‘happy clapper’ but I also acknowledge that the data when it arrives has to be commercially relevant.
Tuesday may produce some insights on the ModiFY trial, fingers crossed.
Excelling point TF
Why do they think Genmab only paid about 1% of that figure direct to SCLP and the rest milestones as if it was such a dead cert why would SCLP not held out for a much bigger slice of the pie.
It was the first deal . very important because ultimately it was another way of getting one of getting the Glymab platforms into the clinic . no point sitting on it get it into the arena
LD said fine line between what you keep and give away ?
good move I think
Morning agree Ruck,
The Genmab deal is a case in point and illustrates the thinking of several posters. They make the instant leap from where we are now to a £600m+ incremental valuation to SCLP conveniently missing out the considerable risk,7-10 year timeline and future dilution.
Why do they think Genmab only paid about 1% of that figure direct to SCLP and the rest milestones as if it was such a dead cert why would SCLP not held out for a much bigger slice of the pie.
As you said we may get there but please let us have a balanced debate about probabilities of success and appropriate valuations not pie in the sky speculation based on what May happen not by those dreamers who reside on fantasy island.
WTP,
"Isnt the genmab deal worth £600m+ alone assuming all goes well? "
True, but that potential revenue will be over the next five years or so. So whilst an mcap of £4B is possible, it's not guaranteed, it won't be next week and the amount of dilution required is unknown.
We all have different personal circumstances and investment goals. If I had the choice of a guaranteed 50p next week versus a chance of £2.40 in 5 years, I'd go for the 50p. That's not because I don't think £2.40 is achievable but simply because my personal circumstances mean the money would be more use earlier rather than later. Plus the fact I've already held for 12 years!
Unfortunately the important investment considerations of risk, time and funding seem to be glossed over on these boards.
Oh, my apologies, I missed 'Glee Club' as well. Comedy gold blasts from the past.
'Astute.'
Wonderful.
Dragon,
Where do I say anywhere about the SP bit not doubling or tripling.RR talks about 50p which is a five fold increase and if it all comes good it could easily get beyond that even to £1.
What I am countenancing against are the valuations in the multi billions which some on here have been espousing for over 10 years.
You can see the likes of RW response to anyone that does not agree with at least a 10,20 or 50 fold increase from current levels he simply resorts to type of anyone who does not share his vision by one line caustic utterances.
What is amusing is he actually believes there is some sort of “ boiler room” conspiracy to deliberately keep the SP here low.
He could not be further from the truth as there is no need do anything so count up how many posts the likes of me have made on here the last 6 months hardly any and like any SH I want the SP to rise the only difference being I along with others take a much more balanced view and are not in such a desperate situation as likes of Ratty and the other over exposed glee club who ignored the astute advice they have been constantly given
Yes...the double/triple WWE tag team as ever.
Predictably tiresome to see who pops up with what and when. Also faintly amusing, to be honest, but definitely predictable and tiresome. AB124 will probably be along in a bit too.