London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
busy on other things so just filling in any gaps .... after a quick read
Yep I understand the structure of licensing deals and the inflection points.
Inflection points as trials progress can generate Dividends
Covidity may hold the key to how fast a Scancell transformation takes place.
I still consider it to be a longshot but who knows with a scientist as brilliant as Lindy leading the project.
If highly potent T Cells plus a range of targets turns out to be the key to defeating Covid19 then IB could overnight become the must have platform for many infections as well as cancer :-)
Inanaco - correct (your 10.42) but even with licensing deals, Scancell are years away from regular dividend generating revenue streams. I'm simply trying to make the point that the investment case here doesn't lie with the possibility that perhaps, maybe, if everything goes well then one day Scancell may be able to scale up and secure enough licensing revenue to pay regular dividends. For anyone looking in who is considering taking a position here, the investment case is the potential for near to mediium term news from 2 or 3 possible sources.
shareguard - thanks for the info. and theory re. Vulpes sale.
One thing that Redmile / Vulpes can do is block any attempt of a cheap takeover.
In two years time with positive results from both SCIB1 and MODI1 we may find that there is an aggressive move by a large pharma, by having these two on board they can ensure and such deal would be at the right price. An 80% uplift from the then SP would probably be acceptable.
I'm thinking about the size of deals we've seen in the last 2/3 years within the Oncology industry, there many such deals that could be quoted.
As we have repetitively said on this board, 'it is the data that gets the deals'.
haha indeed there are certainly far worse risks but if that is the worst I can live with it... too early to be attaching figures to it too... but glad to see after this little rapid jump up to 18p seems to have stop talk of scancell having to accept 23p in a buyout :))
if our only Risk is to be bought out ... ...........
Yes nana.... that was my thinking on saying if moditope and I know scancell is more than moditope but... anyways if it is then Redmile well want to take their reward and be out but bigger players would then move in... infact for Redmile it would be an interesting situation that they maybe have never been in .... invested at 5.5p in what may be showing to be the biggest class of onco immunotherapy ... let us hope it gets to that situation lol
Boom yes it is good enough for me too and you're right it is now up to scancell to deliver but they must have seen enough in the first place to willing to take on the risk.....I get what you are saying- they have no intention of sticking around forever and may well not even 2 years...
you missed the point of the dividend stream ......
Other Funds who look for solid dividend streams would happily take the stock in one deal ....... from Redmile etc
Got you. It is easier to muster support of 3 large holders than 3000 individual ones.
Sorry just to be clear, I'm not suggesting for one second that their exit strategy here is the sale of Scancell. In fact I think it's highly unlikely but equally, I don't think they're going to stick around waiting for dividends to roll in - that's not what they're about. As you say, we have no idea what it is - all we know is that they know what they're doing, their strategy is to get in ahead of the market and they've decided to invest. That's good enough for me.
Now it's up to Scancell to deliver.
The truth is ... we do not know what is the preferred exit for Remile and Vulpes or even if they are on the same page there (you would think they are) all we know is they want a return they are happy with... Of course, I know that scenario of the company being bought out at a price Redmile/Vulpes like and we have no control over is a real possibility but I would think we have a ways to be getting there like I say I think we are at least going to be getting modi1 results in a lot will depend on does moditope translate into trial success ... Some far bigger players could be getting involved then on success or on less clear results we accept what comes....I doubt they are all in for one MaB deal anyways lol
RR They will all have different expectations and not about what they want it us about what they accept.
So a PI can make an individual decision based purely on their own thoughts whereas a fund or institution will likely have to take on a wider number of influences such as need to lay a dividend,to satisfy SH/ backers of the fund or maybe just a big cash call on another part of fund/ new fund manager/ different strategic direction of fund etc.
Bit like when a writer gives up screenplay rights to a book yes you get lots of money but there is a price to pay.
Likes if Redmile/Vulpes have their own agenda and should in theory be in total alignment with SCLP but it is naive to think they are going to agree on everything moving forward.
I was talking about an investor taking a new position of say 20% by buying shares in open market the shares would go up but if that happened the degree of control of any concert party would be diluted.
So for eg if that controlling 51% was made up of Redmile/Vulpes/Calculus/BoD then that concert party would retain any controlling interest say if someone with support of the new investor made an offer of 50p and that was rejected by the controlling interest.
However if that offer was increase to say £1 and one of the concert party say Calculus or Vulpes joined forces with the new investor then the controlling interest could be lessened or diluted.
I know we have struggled with the D word in the past lol and I am talking about control or % age in winning any vote.
It does not necessarily mean that the controlling interest is given up but might be a threat if one party owns 20% and can determine outcomes more than if 20 individuals own 1%each
“ Happened to me in RRE earlier in the year”
It has happened to me on more than one occasion!
Can’t work out why owners and II’s have a much lower price expectation than PI’s :)
Redmile's decision to invest would have been based on identifying an exit strategy, worth remembering what they're looking for:-
' to recognize product cycles and investment themes before they become the focus of mainstream investors.'
It may not be absolutely cast in stone and clearly needs to be flexible to adapt to unforeseen events but the average length of their investments is 12 to 24 months. Obviously some will be much longer and some much shorter.
As for exactly what their exit strategy is here depends on what their research and due diligence revealed. Could well be Modi1 trial or perhaps there's some other event they can foresee that hasn't yet been spotted by the market!
By the way, you're right, they do review all the time, in fact Redmile has a pre-defined and escalating review process triggered by certain percentages (loss).
Crumbs.They don't have to have one but as experienced investors and with a track record of investing and exiting positions I presume they have a defined strategy.
To exit these large positions to maximise the value you need a clear strategy which does not ideally involve drip feeding shares into the market.
They only have limited options like a outright sale,a listing or selling their position to another investor.
They would normally discuss that with the BoD formally or informally and I am sure that the BoD are probably aligned.
The idea of the BoD having big skin in the game is not only a financial commitment it is about keeping control of SCLP.
This is usually of minor concern to PIs as they are never going to be in a position to have any control over the Company so why worry about it.
The simple fact is if someone offered say £1 a share and the threshold for Approval was passed then no matter how much individual PIs might say I want more they would have to sell their shares for the highest price available during previous 12 months.
I do believe it is a moot point a feel as most PIs would be happy to accept it.
Happened to me in RRE earlier in the years and in others sold at 85% premium and it was like it or lump it
“ I'm sure they review all the time and plan with what is happening in their investments and what may happen and their own needs.”
Exactly right, just what all of us do!
If you own 51% of a company when the SP is 12p, you would still have 51% if it rose to 24p.
Am I missing the point?
The rising SP has no effect on “Dilute control” whatsoever.
It is a simple cause and consequence ifsomeone buys 10 or 20% of SCLP the SP will go up as there will have been a big increase in demand for shares.
However someone will then own 10-20% which means they will have a proportionate influence on any major decisions moving forward and hence a “ dilution of control” so if conflicting parties need their support to approve/ reject any resolution then that puts them in a good position to determine the outcome.
Really seems pretty obvious to me
Do Redmile and Vulpes have to have a defined exit strategy? Obviously like us all they are in for a return but I doubt they have a solid set in stone strategy I'm sure they review all the time and plan with what is happening in their investments and what may happen and their own needs....I would think at the very least they will want to see moditope (modi1) go through trial as that is what the bulk f their investment will be spent on?
last post .....
what does this mean
Once over £100m market cap other funds can well start to build a position which would help drive the SP up but of course dilute control to a very small degree.
how does the SP rising ..... "dilute control"
anyway i will leave this topic for now..... not spending all day on here again ...