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how they exit ... i have no idea ...
Had you thought about the fact Investment funds also like "Dividends" .....
amazing what royalties can deliver
Inanaco honestly I am not questioning you or Burbles scientific contribution I am simply bowing to his greater knowledge in the very specific area of research papers in which I am sure he have been named and knows a lot more than me.
I use research papers on an ongoing basis and know many contributors but my direct involvement was too many years ago and in a completely different subject area.
What I dont know is if 10 people are listed in a research paper on oncology who does all the actual work and how are the findings accredited.
As Burble works in this field and has likely been accorded in these type if papers I would like his specific input in this area.
I welcome your input as well if you have particular knowledge but it is not about valuing contributions at different levels.
ATB
Inanaco would love to know what their exit strategy is bit sure they will have one but because of the size of their position it will be likely different to PIs.
The stock market allows any individual to sell their shares at any time at prevailing SP.
For likes of Redmile/Vulpes unless they become distressed which is unlikely we know like CF selling on the open market is not a preferred option so their exit plan will likely be a complete sale of business again unlikely imo unless they sell off non core assets first or say a Nasdaq IPO or selling their stake to another fund.
Really interesting discussing possibilities
Well i am sure Burble will correct your understanding ....
But if you feel my posts have no standing and you Feel Burbles Stamp of approval is required, that what i am posting is plausible.. than i am happy for Burble to peer review me ....
now these collaborations create spin offs .......... Its "My" considered opinion .. scancell searching for the Perfect CD4 T cell to transfect .... via the BioNtech Collaboration had to develop a means of identifying and expanding them .. MAB2811 is probably a spin off ... otherwise i don't see why they would have developed it .... ? So this tells you Scancell is Knee Deep in the technology of TCR ... indeed bringing in more specialist because of it ....
I hope those questioning "No News" don't mistake that for "failure"
They have done it before ............ the ""designer"" Mouse developed to specifically to test Moditope
Morning Inanaco,
Burble is probably best placed to comment about the input of research papers in this field but ime it is often the PhD scientists who do all the work and the more eminent scientists review and add their name for credibility.
You often have loads of names listed and they all make a contribution but that is not proportionate to their input.
I just meant SCLP innovation is heavily dependent on LD.
Yes Redmile/Vulpes do not run SCLP but they do largely control what happens strategically.Plus other aligned holders like Calculus etc.
I just do not see any huge wish by the BoD to stay “ independent” for decades to come and given age of BoD my personal view is if if someone made a £1-2 bid for the Company then I can’t see many holding out.
Plus if it was genuinely likely that it was going to become a multi billion dollar outfit then I think way before then someone would make a move.
Once over £100m market cap other funds can well start to build a position which would help drive the SP up but of course dilute control to a very small degree.
The future here could be very exciting based in continued positive data.
GLA
Morning Ivy,All,
Ivy, you make some valid points.
The thought of hundreds of millions of pounds pouring in from license fees and royalties and investors being showered with dividends is a nice dream. One of the risks I’ve always highlighted, and you have pointed out, is an outright sale of the company. I would hope this would not be for much less than £1, so perhaps not such a bad risk!
I used to worry about the dependence on one person and still do to an extent but less so these days. LD has worked in this field a long time and there are a number of people who have worked with her for a large portion of that time. I can’t imagine LD surrounding herself with anyone not on her intellectual level or who doesn’t have the same passion. I think she will have passed on her approach, methods, processes (physical and thought) and work ethic. Don’t forget , as Edison said “genius is one percent inspiration and ninety nine percent perspiration”. The IP LD has already produced will account for a lot of the value of Scancell. So I believe the company would still achieve success even if it had to be without LD.
AIMO.
Scancell i believe has characterised approx 7 moditope epitope .................. another 30 to go
Scancell discovered Homocitrulline characterising a few epitopes for Modi2 ........ how many more will be discovered ?
all under patent ...
if Scancell want to expand fast ............ it does deals based around research of epitopes for specific targets within the moditope Patents .... search Immunocore pipeline and you can see this model ...
Projects fully funded non dilutionary
by the way Redmile and Vulpes have an exit Ivy .,............ its the stockmarket if they so wish
example if you trust your science ....
look lets not talk money ... lets collaborate .. get your scientist to understand what they are dealing with build that experience with us so your fully up to speed of the potential of the product giving you the confidence to take it commercial
4 commercial collaborations
Tick Tock
mmm if you look at the research papers they contain more than one name .. ATB Ivy
Scancell is not Run by Redmile or Vulpes
the whole point about operating the Model is that you don't get involved beyond phase 2 ....the scientist stay in Inventive mode not bogged down with collating and statistics of these very big trials
Morning,
No one is doubting the immense potential of the platforms here but just think you need to rein in some of the anticipated expectations.
1.First you have to generate deals/ data to get anything like true value.
2.SCLP will not do that on its own so for eg pay for phase 3 trials so yes SCLP will potentially receive huge milestone payments but the heavy lifting will be done by others.
3.Likes of Redmile/Vulpes/BoD are in complete control of future here and imo are likely to sell out either in total or more likely to monetise assets once proven up.
This will likely be at a much lower but nevertheless very healthy SP to some of the anticipated valuations on here giving SH an e trendily healthy return for both institutions and PIs.
4.How “ innovative “ is SCLP or is it essentially down to LD.Yes the IP has tremendous value but being so dependent on one person is much cheaper to buy and is a risk in itself.
As I say I do think the potential is really good here but talk of multiple and open ended licensing deals can only be fully achieved if it was the wish and within the gift of the BoD.
It is not and I don’t believe it is in any way part of an exit plan.
Only my thoughts as usual.
yes ...
obviously its easy to upgrade a chip design each year .. it does not need approval
but the principle is the same ....
dedicated team of "inventors"
Not bogged down with sales, manufacture etc
Constant revenue stream from Royalties especially if the scientist "Trust" the invention it means you can back end load the deals so actually efficacy is fully priced in ie so your taking on more of the risk because its your invention and experience which the counter party does not have ... so prices in accordingly and a lot lower that if it had the clinical data
i have no issues at all with this model .... its why i am here backing my own risk assessment .. which currently stands at zero because of the Known SCIB1 data relative to SP .... effectively nothing else is priced in ...
We are looking ahead but doesn't IB have the potential for many deals. I am talking about the flexibility to go after different targets for different cancer indications and now we are seeing possible widespread use outside cancer.
You could think of IB as the chip and the targets as the software.
Inanco, you're losing me now - what is license, profit share?
a missing coma
Remember the company has to give 21 days notice for the AGM to take place. Last year September, the year before end October, so if given Monday 21st the earliest date will be 12th October
As Bermuda just said one deal will be great (for now) I am hopeful we will announce one before the AGM takes place.
So really notice will be given in the next two weeks, alomg with the prospect of further news too.
Yes perhaps better not get ahead of ourselves - just one deal would be great and put Scancell in a completely different place.
Inanco, you're losing me now - what is license profit share?
time to close ... have a good weekend ...
look how many deals are done on license profit share and joint ventures etc ... then the Big player takes them over
how many pharma Bio has the potential to offer so many agreements ? Scancell is a bit special in that respect
Sorry am not with you - most of what get taken over?
Whether or not Scancell go for a non-exclusive Arms Holdings type licensing model or a traditional pharma type licensing model has no bearing on how innovative Scancell are - that's a given.
yes avidmab has that potential as well ...
disagree most get taken over ... or go on to manufacture and develop there own sales once they have core income
i just think the scancell team thrive on invention ...
Yes but the point is that they license the same chips over and over again - so the licensing deals are non-exclusive. Whereas Scancell presumably would only license Modi1 the vaccine once on an exclusive basis and then go on to generate further vaccines from the same platform and license again on an exclusive basis. So that's not an Arms Holdings scenario, it's a standard bio/pharma licensing model.
Don't you think that Avidimab is the most likely candidate for a possible Arms Holdings model?
yes ... but its the license of the chips the target is the software written by the user so its infinite
Scancell develop the platform and license the targets same principle it does not sell or manufacture
both would have royalty streams
but always retain the core .. the platforms or the chip design