The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Off topic a little bit. Is anyone going to Fundsmith AGM on 25th Feb in London?
Please don't buy anymore then! ;)
I’m the complete opposite.
Every time I buy the SP goes down :(
Hello everyone,
I have been monitoring SAVP and this messageboard for a long time now and today have taken the plunge and bought in. Admittedly it is a modest investment of 40k shares however i cant for the life of me understand how 17.00 is available! Hope to be proven right.
Hi Interzone - I have had a look at the one year and one week charts. Both indicating downtrends of course and there is no evidence in either chart patterns or trends that the downtrend has been broken.
The one year chart is, however, showing the share as a little oversold (MacD) and more oversold (RSI) and Stochastic measure is showing that the share is at rock bottom right now. So that may indicate a small rally back up but no sign that the downtrend will be broken.
The one week chart shows similar, again with Stochastic measure being at 0 or rock bottom which means a lift back up could be on the cards.
Will keep an eye on them all and post when I am more confident that a turn around is underway - at the moment the indicators are that it may be turning in the next day or two but the evidence of it having started to turn isn't there as yet.
That bulk of trades at 17.50 were all algo trades, given the volume and the SP not moving you would argue they are ii to ii, given we know this has been happening with legacy seven note holders exiting. Before this kept the SP circa 20p to 21.5p, something has changed in last week, two possible reasons are
1. the addition of PI sells as they get impatient for news and low SP.
2. the bulk sell that has been worked thru since November is nearly over, so if they wanted an average of 20p and they got alot higher, they can sell the remainder at below as they maintain the av.
ive discounted the $5m loan effect given the conversation the shareholder had with IR, but obviously would be a driver if theres a convert to equity.
But in that case someone is still buying, there needs to be a counter party to the trade.
Even if the specifics are slightly off (and looking at the list of trades I don’t think they are) my main point still stands - it’s a comparatively small amount of selling - in the tens of thousands of pounds or absolute worst case very low hundred thousand or so - to knock tens of millions off the market cap.
The change in the SP is an over reaction to the volume and the price therefore should be either ignored or looked at as a golden buying opportunity. I’ve topped up twice over the last two days and feel very comfortable with my decision
Is there really that many people who have margin with Savp? Given how the bid/ask have been manipulated its impossible to know whats been the buy/sell ratio. Also if ii is a market maker they are the opposite to us, they sell on the ask and buy on the bid.
Good point PSB123 - looking forward to next week when the share price moves the market cap up by millions on the very light trade turning positive.
If you look through the list of trades you can see the bid and ask prices and how they move through the day.
When the bid hit 18.5 you can see a bunch of automatic (A) trades and within a few seconds of each other. When the bid hit 18p you see the same thing again.
Most people set stops at round number (whole pence or half a pence) and stop loss sales are reported as A trades.
These will have helped inflate the net sales over the last few days but my main point still stands, a tiny amount of sales in absolute £’s has knocked a massive amount of the market cap.
It would be nice to see the directors make some corresponding buys as the price is clearly really volatile on very low volumes.
Oh, also meant to say that of the net sales over the last two days nearly half were clearly stops being hit at 18.5p and 18p - you can see it obviously in the trades.
That makes it more like £50k ish in net sales to drive the market cap down by £20m.
Don’t fall for it
i don't care what is driving it down - the bottom line is the share is now going to be sub 17p! time for the bod to get back to work! $2.1m pa are you having a laugh AK!
It’s disconcerting seeing the SP where it is but don’t lose sight of the fact that about £80k net sales has knocked some £20m off the market cap.
This is not normal but the decline is clearly not being driven in massive selling.
Top up opportunity and one to ride out and not get panicked by.