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the virus is serious, but i think there is more fear than reality, Chinese cases and deaths are falling, theres been further outbreaks notably Iran, S Korea and Italy, but warmer weather is coming and the public are aware, that was not the case from the start.
'game'
yes stocks markets been strong for years while the oil and gas sector has remained on it's arse, of course the moment the equity mkts start declining the sector follows it to inflict more declines in o and g. Can't win.
Prices are not $20 but you would think it given the total deadbeat activity. Not helped by ceos' that talk a good gain but fail time and time again to deliver. Come om savp buck the trend and get Niger moving!
Yes I read that earlier Porschefund. I did say it is mild compared to the Spanish Flu.
This is 2020 and we are at the end of one of the longest bull runs ever - it needs a catalyst to cause the fall - here it is. IMO.
In 2003 markets had been depressed and were ripe for a rise and the contained virus wasn't going to stop it.
My logic says don't panic - it will soon pass and fundamentals will re-assert. My experience is not to hold whilst the others panic. SAVP has some of the best defence characteristics around and will get up to 35p then 70p in time so a lot depends on your time frame. Good luck - SAVP will come good.
Kalan- Any reference to the Spanish Flu of 100 years ago is IMO rather alarmist, yes it was the first of the H1N1 virus outbreak but the second H1N1 outbreak named Swine Flu is more representative of its effect in the 21st Century.
There was an article in the FT in on 27th January that looked at the markets reaction to recent epidemics and pandemics, as its subscription access I have copied it below.
Investors are looking back at previous epidemics in an effort to anticipate how badly the coronavirus outbreak could affect already shaky global markets. “It’s important that we don’t panic but really look to history as a guide,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco. “At the moment, so little is known that it’s difficult to even pull in experts.” JPMorgan has assessed the market impact of past outbreaks, notably Sars (November 2002 to July 2003), swine flu (March 2009 to August 2010), Ebola (December 2013 to June 2016) and the Zika virus (March 2015 to November 2016). In each of those cases, a sharp initial stock market decline quickly gave way to a recovery. The MSCI China index fell 8.6 per cent on the Sars outbreak but rebounded by more than 30 per cent in the three months after April 2003. Stocks in Hong Kong fell by a fifth, but also sprang back and made significant gains. Similarly, swine flu triggered a 4 per cent drop in the MSCI Mexico index, which then gained more than 25 per cent. “The more equities fell initially, the more they subsequently rebounded,” wrote Mislav Matejka, head of global and European equity strategy at JPMorgan in London. “These episodes did not lead to a prolonged period of selling and were a buying opportunity within weeks.”
Hi Michu - I think this is a black swan event - everyone keeps being amazed by the USA bull run - nothing seemed to stop it - climbing a wall of worry etc - all the old clichés. No-one predicted a virus outbreak of this nature though and even tough it is mild compared to say the Spanish Flu which killed far more than the world war it followed, it will have a massive effect on human behaviour and sentiment. In the next month or so we will see people in the UK walking around in masks, keeping kids off school, not turning in for work etc. Demand is being crushed and will be crushed more. Luckily SAVP is one of the least exposed to all this - a niche position in a fairly isolated part of the world but those who invest in it live in areas that are going to see a reasonable amount of panic. Cashed out with a 40% loss - living to fight another day (hopefully) I am retired and don't want to risk the lifestyle I have to chase profits to give to the next generation - 3 to 4 months from now the investment place will be different with cash rich folks looking for bargains - watching from the side lines having taken the punch to the stomach of realising my losses. 3 years profits down the pan - looking forward to starting again with a fresh slate. SAVP will be back on plate at a later date.
unless/until stand out good news is announced we're in the same boat as all other AIM oilers and indeed AIM stocks generally: in a liquidity sense AIM is clearly a dying market.. and, when all is said and done, liquidity is the essence of share investing/trading. (imho)
When main markets sell off, AIM stocks, once again and as seemingly ever in recent years, go down considerably more quickly than those main markets; for that crucial lack of liquidity reason ( no buyers and forced sellers one way or other.. margin call stop outs, run for safety of cash by choice or necessity etc. ) And whenever in the future there is a major stock market correction - eg 20% + down in US markets.. I guess/hope that's not this corona virus time btw - AIM shares, on average, will get obliterated whatever lowly level they may or may not already be at immediately ahead of such a correction (imho)
Having not bothered at 14.5p ..I've started SMALL topping up again here just now at 13.5p ish .. and will likely continue from here every 1.5p down from 13.5p..if it continues on down and I hope it doesn't, obviously.
Generally, as I expect meaningful resistance to kick in at least around 11 /12p area, I'd be surprised if this s/p goes into single figures.. very surprised even... but not shocked... and if it does go into 9's p I'll add one chunky buy of 20/25% of my position towards panic meaningful averaging down.
I think the discount comes from lack of buyers because you don’t know when the seller drops. AIIM bought 20% of the seven deal as a basic fixed income with large upside with little investment. SAVP bought the seven assets to create a fixed income (dividend) whilst investing the surplus into the monster Niger basin. The hold up is in the partnering. Are SAVP going to get a cash injection into Niger with a partner (Commence a dividend payment) or will they need that cash to go it alone ??? The corona virus and oil price weakness couldn’t have come at a worse time for us as I believe we’re in the finalisation of the deal. Weather or not we get a partner the FCF from Nigeria is substantial and puts us on a very strong footing no matter what the oil price does in the short/medium term.
Coronavirus doesn’t help matters but I think the market is perhaps waiting for SAVP to publish some figures re earnings on the recent acquisitions.
It’s time to put the tin hat on and get back in the bunker until the storm settles.
Can we now assume that this is trading with a large Coronavirus discount?
Don't just look at the impact on the FTSE, look at the oil price decline which could be reasonably linked in part to Chinese aviation industry demand and more generally a global economic slow down.
https://mobile.twitter.com/guillaumebess13/status/1232548810620055552?s=12