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Longshort - In my mind I had set the 15th March as my expectation, one would expect if we don't get anything by than than the last 2 weeks of March are more about planning for further extensions that's how I tend to view each extension to be fair is if we don't have anything 2 weeks prior to deadline than we are pretty much in the same position in terms of progress.
Genuinely hoping for update within next 2 weeks as if it is after this i feel it is more likely to be extended again. If it goes on any longer Petronas will be paying us to take it off their hands ☺
Interesting to see the below, we know the export issues and as the eye radio article suggest they are progressing with repairs.
Something that caught my eye is the mention of Vitol, seems to me like Vitol are the principal trading house that market south sudanese crude, and I wonder if they played a key role in us striking an SPA with Petronas, they could be our financial backers and with a company like savannah operating south sudanese assets and increasing production they would be the principal benefactors in marketing addtional volumes if south sudan can increase it's export capacity to levels it was capable of doing previously
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/022924-force-majeure-declared-on-south-sudans-dar-blend-crude-loadings-sources
Morning All - A new month and all is quiet in the Savannah front.
https://www.eyeradio.org/crude-oil-set-for-smooth-flow-as-pipelines-under-repair-amour/
Https://apnews.com/article/south-sudan-crisis-oil-red-sea-f8954810435083ade292f79ac08a7638
Sail - this article says it’s $23 dollars per barrel
Https://sudantribune.com/article41044/
Makes one wonder - would it be cheaper to truck the oil east to the coast then send it the long way around Africa to avoid the Red sea troubles??
I personally feel that both waring Sudanese parties need the pipeline revenues so they have already started to fix the oil pipeline infrastructure
https://twitter.com/RSFSudan/status/1761375911830503789
... an alternative oil evacuation route.
https://sudantribune.com/article282734/
Tier - SS Government is in a dire financial situation so unless so dodgy transaction occurs there is slim chance of them purchasing the acquisition themselves.
A few articles below to stew on until savannah is able to pull the finger out and provide updates
https://sudantribune.com/article282734/
https://apnews.com/article/south-sudan-crisis-oil-red-sea-f8954810435083ade292f79ac08a7638
Morning Savers. I certainly hope so. It’s unthinkable if SS at this stage still doesn’t want to sale to go though. Do they still want to buy the assets themselves?
StreetsofGold - I am guessing the recent red sea troubles as a matter of fact would re-instate Petronas stance further for leaving. Obviously for someone like size of our company can extract significant value and is probably still a good asset to go for even with export interruptions especially if the balance of payment on closing is low with the significant amount of time passed since deal inception.
It clearly hinges on approvals being the main thing that slows progress or stops the deal from occruing.
Thanks CYB. Hopefully this is the final bilateral meeting between Petronas & SS Government before confirming sale with ministerial sign off and a Presidential signing ceremony. One would have thought that SS desperately/ urgently needs a new operator committed to growing bbl/day to grow revenues for the Government.
Apologies - I meant compressed gas
Https://cityreviewss.com/looming-controversy-over-shake-up-at-ministry-of-petroleum/
Is the CCgas not expected to command an ivreased price?
Zengas - if there is a signing bonus attached to approval and deal it could expedite approval especially when the government is in need of cash
F/book 1 hour ago reporting on an interview with the minister of information saying the 23-24 budget will not be met as oil production reduced, gelling in 2 pipeline stations and difficulty getting oil out from port sudan due to the attacks on shipping in the red sea.
They intend to strengthten the non oil sector for the economy. Saying that we don't know what the actual oil production numbers are, they could be down as little as 10-20k but which still makes a huge difference to meeting their budget. One would think the government wouldn't be in the position for buying up oil assets.
Also this article on the challenges for S.Sudan via the red sea/houthi attcks on shipping.
https://bnnbreaking.com/world/yemen/south-sudan-oil-exports-hit-by-yemeni-houthi-attacks-amid-sudan-conflict
Buffett is bullish on energy “ When the dust settles, America’s power needs and the consequent capital expenditure will be staggering”
https://www.forexlive.com/news/warren-buffett-capital-spending-on-americas-power-needs-will-be-staggering-20240226/amp/
Zengas
Thanks for the reply and the clarification.
Thanks Zengas - as ever appreciate your thoughts but at the same time the company could do a lot better with comms on such questions in my opinion, answers even as small as the one you provide for example go along way. I am hoping sooner or later Savannah are able to fully articulate the full value of the accugas asset
For 2022. The average gas price was $3.69 mcf spread across 8 contracts for 2022.
Revenue was $212.5m ($181.1m for gas, $29.8m for oil and condensate and another $1.6m for handling 3rd party oil).
If we were doing 200-220 mmcf/d consistently it would be $270m - $300m plus another $30m+ oil from S.Creek.
So to run consistently at 200 - 220 mmcf/d at present capacity or when the compression project completes it could generate an additional $90m - $110m revenue with most of the fixed costs already taken for. That size revenue would be a game changer as would the debottling of S.Creek oil that practically double capacity/sales.
Trust as i see it we're buying 3rd party gas so we should be doubling on the purchase price i would think given what Save sells the Uquo gas to Accugas for. I don't think there'll be any valueing 3rd party gas reserves as we don't own them but yep there should be a value given to the sales portion and certainly a good growth market for 3rd party suppliers such as Amocon.
We have 200 mmcf/d processing and rising to 220 mmcf/d with the compression project - maybe a bit more but surely the emphasis is on safety.
The pipeline capacity is up to 600 mmcf/d so around 400 mmcf/d spare depending where the gas goes in.
Zengas - One thing that will be interesting is how the company and market values third party gas reserves for example the gas that goes through our network from Amocon, the company did mention they see a lot of stranded gas assets that can be converted or utilised through our pipeline.
It will be interesting to see the book value of 2p reserves from third party licences or acreage and how they can value this or provide numbers to for example the gas that we get from AMOCON is licence OML 156, I couldn't find 2p reserve number for this licence online, but it would be interesting data point purely because if Amocon have significant reserves and the only way to cash in is through our pipeline than that gas effectively strengthens our 2p numbers albeit not our gas if that makes sense.
Any thoughts on this ?