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Yes, that's my take on it too Tier so am reading that as a message that all will be completed, but then even SAVE can't guarantee what other parties ultimately do so there is still always a question over it until confirmed. Hopefully sooner rather than later though.
Analysts (finncap etc) only write up after talking to Save, and they’re happy with the legitimacy of the info given? Surely they won’t be writing if they feel they’ve been fed some bs? Stupid as it is I’d like to ask. It’s actually not that stupid.
I'm going with the 30th for an update. I don't think the transaction is in SAVE's hands anymore, all their components are finalised, but it's simply with Chad govt/Exxon to resolve their differences. Cameroon/Petronas (which is a separate, distinct transaction) has been fairly quiet, though I suspect they will be announced together if both conclude. Either way I think we'll get an update 30th with Half-year results, along with an update on Niger and refinance (though FinnCap note yesterday suggested that has now been pushed out to end of year)
So, update at end of September but not necessarily deal conclusion is my guess. Hopefully I'm totally wide of the mark!!
With only 9 trading days left in August and an expectation the deal concludes in September what are peoples thoughts on when in 1 st September a clean start to the month, 30th, clean start to final qtr or somewhere inbetween, i guess we all hope for 1 st. I also don't recall any direct negative calls re Savannahs participation in the deal from the president unless someone can show me different ?
I thought to give you guys the 'heads up' to look at youtuber 'Dutch Sinse' who is a really on-the-ball guy re earth quakes. He reckons there is potential for a @'3' to '4' earth quake to hit London and east coast uk. Keep safe, be prepared and 'keep some powder dry' expecting some market wobbles....
Like all of us, I sometimes despair (contemplate cashing out for a reasonable % return but an insignificant profit). However the fundamentals remain really solid. Terry Smith famously observed that sometimes the fundamentals and the share price are at odds - but it's not the fundamentals that change in order to correlate to the share price.
I think the delays in the Chad/Cameroun closure, combined with West African uncertainty, poor IR comms and and an impatient PI base, are holding down the shares. I don't see any great sign of the IIs bailing out and limited liquidity makes us vulnerable to the impact of relatively small transactions.
I am in now way 'talking my own book' here - but I am buying (OK - Full Disclosure; not in exactly monumental volumes) every time the SP drops below 30p.
Like many much wiser observers, Zengas, Trek, Shore Capital et al included, I am entirely confident of the SP reaching 80p+ (and maybe £1.00+) within a year.
If I'm right (and of course DYOR) on an FD valuation basis, even for those with an average of anywhere sub 25p, that is something well worth holding on for.
“ This is yet another sign-up from SAVE who have continued to deliver new customers for Accugas, as CEO Andrew Knott says above, is the tenth new client in two years. A key area in Southern Nigeria, Accugas will supply Notore with up to 10 MMscfpd of gas to augment its current supplies on a one year contract with extensions possible so should be a significant positive to revenue in coming years.
In addition it is an economic no-brainer as Notore’s fertiliser production plant is connected to the Accugas network via the Nigerian Gas Company pipeline from Ikot Abasi and no further tie-in or capital expenditure is required by Accugas to deliver gas to Notore.
Savannah is building a substantial business which I think will become the model for providing gas throughout Nigeria and probably beyond, in the meantime expect more contracts, a stronger and bigger revenue stream and it should feed through to the share price which at 30p is way too low.”
'The expected close of Savannah’s Chad/Cameroon acquisitions is fast approaching ' ... good that FinnCap are reiterating this message suggesting it is just a matter of time before it happens.
'...the expected refinancing of Accugas debt before year end.'.... this was originally a KPI for completion in 2021 so disappointing that it is now pushed out to end of year, but I guess it is what it is.
New Accugas gas sales agreement It is good to see Savannah continuing to perform with its core Nigeria gas business while pursuing the closure of the two Chad/Cameroon oil acquisitions. Savannah’s Nigerian midstream gas subsidiary, Accugas, has signed its fourth new gas sales agreement this year, adding high margin volumes that will further optimise underutilised infrastructure. The expected close of Savannah’s Chad/Cameroon acquisitions is fast approaching and will more than double FCF, providing the flexibility to rapidly deleverage while investing for growth and delivering shareholder distributions. Completion of the acquisitions is expected in Q3 and should prove a strong catalyst for the shares, which will be further fuelled by the expected refinancing of Accugas debt before year end. Savannah’s expanding, highly cash-generative portfolio provides a solid platform for the continued pursuit of additional ‘Projects that Matter’ across Africa in its quest to become a significant regional energy player.
- Another new gas sales agreement signed. Savannah’s 80%-owned Nigerian midstream gas subsidiary, Accugas, has signed another new gas sales agreement (GSA) – its fourth of the year – with Notore Chemical Industries PLC (Ticker: NOTORE, Mkt cap US$235m). The contract is for supply of up to 10 mmcfd of gas to Notore’s Rivers State fertiliser plant on an interruptible and reasonable endeavours basis for an initial 1-year term, extendable by mutual agreement. No further tie-in or capex is required to deliver the gas as Notore’s fertiliser plant is already connected to the Accugas network.
- Notore is a Nigeria-based integrated agro-allied, chemicals and infrastructure company located in the Onne Oil and Gas Free Zone area of Rivers state in southern Nigeria. Notore’s fertiliser facility has a production capacity of 1,500 metric tons per day of urea and 1,000 metric tonnes per day of ammonia.
- Accugas performing well. Accugas total revenues from gas sales have grown at a 15% CAGR over the past five years. Since Savannah acquired the company in 2019, it has now increased the number of gas customer sites from 3 to 10 and raised Accugas’s maximum contractual gas sales volumes by over 50% to 292 mmcfd. These additional volumes will be high margin as they require minimal additional capex and improve the unit costs of Accugas’s underutilised midstream infrastructure. While only expected to have a small impact on estimates initially, it is still encouraging to see Savannah continuing to add new customers within its core Nigerian gas business while also pursuing regional expansion through strategic acquisitions and diversifying into renewables.
Yes, certainly looks that way Hazdogg. Virtually all the daily trades are algo trades so no interest from PI's at the moment. Niger update has been pushed back to end of September with Half-year results according to a poster who spoke with Investor Relations. Only reason I can think is that it's all tied in with CC sign-off, and there's no sign of that at the moment. Lot's of political activity going on in Chad at the moment which probably explains why we have not heard anything. Thankfully there's a few Test matches to keep me occupied till September!!
I feel perhaps SAVE is now in a situation that it’s been in before, where good news has little impact on SP due to it not being the news the mkt wants (Chad deal completion). Similar to the 5 successful well drill program during the Seven Energy RTO, where each RNS stating a success was actually met with a downturn in the sp, as it wasn’t the news of RTO completion the mkt needed to hear. Tick tock
The Union of Trade Unions of Chad (UST) calls on all workers in the public and private sector to observe a three-day strike from August 17, 2022 throughout the national territory. This is following a general meeting held last Saturday.
Contacted, the president of the UST, Barka Michel confirms the information and indicates that a minimum service will be provided in hospitals and emergency services.
Following the case of embezzlement at the Société des hidrocarbures du Tchad (SHT), the Union of Trade Unions of Chad, furious, had demanded, among other things, the resignation of the Prime Minister, the increase of wages by 50%
Thanks, Mr Streets; exactly so! There's just over seven and a half months between those two releases on the Perenco deal, which is what I was trying to show.
It'll also be interesting to see if we do get the Doba premium over Brent which you've flagged, sog.
I think Knotty has been advised not to release any further RNSs which might be in any way related to Chad. Quite why this means we've heard nothing on the Niger plans, I don't know. I suspect it will become clear in the autumn. Releasing the interims can't be avoided of course. I wouldn't expect them too early.