Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Woody .. have you considered that things might not be going to plan?
Every time the SP drops like a stone, someone somewhere identifies some 'secret large buys' going on ...
The general law of the markets is that if the price is dropping .. people are selling.
All of us PIs need to recognise that the shares are being sold. Ergo - if there are 4 large buys, there are at least 4 larger sells.
I dont think they need to panic the market to makes sells!
why only 200 days in a year?
Philpot .. "you think maybe a big hidden buy lurking? If not, maybe the MM's are expecting further buys coming in"
.. apparently not.
Are you then expecting the 12% fall to be reversed today then LuckCounts?
FWIW - as a holder - I will go against the grain and say that I am ****ed off.
AK to my mind is making some big mistakes - either in his handling of the RTO, which has taken over 2 years now .. or his communications on the matter. for the last 18 months I can read posts where he is confident that it will be shortly concluded.
I also think he has taken his eye off the ball regarding the Niger assets, which have stalled for the last year - and were only progressing at snails pace before that ... 5 well drills in the last xx years is pretty pathetic - and no farm-ins either - which leads me to believe they are not able get oil out of the ground. They are playing a waiting game for the pipelines - but that may be too long, and our shareholdings may be watered down to nothing,
Where is the EPS, where are the trucks what are supposed to be transporting oil?
I recognise there are people here who are deeply optimistic - and that is good. but 15 years working in and around investment banks taught me that these guys are not idiots and, contrary to popular belief, there are not that many companies which are deeply undervalued. Ergo, if the SP is low, it is because of risk.
One final point, every RNS released can be spun - and generally is spun - in an optimistic manner. And everyone (including myself) will say they are in for the long haul ... But can anyone genuinely say that they expected to be where we are now? I didn't.
(Still holding, but ****ed off with management, and trusting that the 7E transaction will make up for the disappointment in Niger, and that it will provide enough working capital to at least move forward in Niger in some manner)
"Management notes that the initial phase of R1/R2 expires in July 2019. In recognition of this deadline, management is in advanced discussions with the relevant authorities to amalgamate the R1/R2 and R3/R4 production sharing contracts. These discussions provide further support in favour of no impairment indicator demonstrated on the R1/R2 licence area."
Ok, and have they made any progress on these advanced discussions? ... because July 2019 came and went, and the least we deserve is an update on whether they have agreed to amalgamate the licences. Further - the fact that no RNS has been released to this effect suggests to me that they have NOT amalgamated the licences,
"of the R1/R2 EEA on 05/08/2019 and is it (now) a concern?"
I have been bringing this up for months .. other people - (I wont mention names, but very pro-SAVP posters) were shooting down my comments, and absolutely insisting that there is nothing to worry about ...
What's is interesting about that telegraph piece, is that it is completely wrong (Gas in Nigeria, Oil in Niger, not buying up assets but a distressed takeover)
OAW .. given my other investments, this pretty much is my .. SIPP!
Are you Agadem?
Has anything they have done in the past 3 years demonstrated that?
I am heavily invested here (though not so much as you!) and hoping for success. But to my mind, there is an issue getting oil out of the ground, and getting in JV partners.
Some may disagree (and I hope I am wrong) - but people have been disagreeing for the last 3+ years - when we had 5 year licences, and we are not significantly closer than we were then. .. and still no pipelines, refinery deals, or partners - with only 2 more years of licences (maybe 3 if we get an extension)
To me, the value is now heavily linked to Seven - which is ok, but not what I expected when I invested. I think AK knows the same, which is why he pressed for this.
"I wonder how much we’d get for 50%. I remember AK alluding to $250m for 50% but that was when oil was circa $50 and we’d made no discoveries"
it will also depend on the length of the licence.
My big concern (consistently raised over the last 3 years) is that we are not exploring fast enough to make full use of these discoveries. I recognise that people don't want to hear that, but the reality is we may end up handing back the majority of the licences because we have run out of time.
I know there is a year extension btw, but even with that we are running out of time. We need multiple drills going in parallel to truly take advantage - and so far I cant see that. Even if we get a farm-in partner, how long will it take to sign contracts and to then mobilise the drills?
I don't like the term 'cash strapped' .. it means everyone will be playing hardball with us.
I am getting concerned about the time we have to explore our licences - which seems to be rapidly running out. We will soon need to relinquish these licences, and I think AK knows that. His 'bet' on SAV seems to be on the 7E assets, and Niger seems to be of less importance now.
NiceToMichu .. the 'diehards' .. and I guess I am one of those .. are still significantly in the red.
Having held for a few years (pre-Seven tie-up) my average here is 40p, so a long way to go before even breaking even.
.. that said, there now seems a bit of light at the end of a long, dreary tunnel.
Do your research .. Suddenly, there is a lot of names I haven't seen posting on SAVP, pumping lots of other shares.
There's a bit htat they could do, in terms of reassurance that things are still on track .. If that is the case.
Recently there's been a marked increase in volume together with a drop in SP. Does not bode well.
I think a delay of the 7E deal is being priced in .. or worse.
Thanks Philpot and Rugs
I agree FallingKnife .. the ramp up in production has been woefully short of the predictions of 5 years ago, and that is the problem. the depressed prices are a concern, but would not affect us so negatively, if we were producing 60kt.
I would like to know how the nurseries are doing, in terms of maturity and the volume of FFB they are currently producing / are predicted to produce.
Does anyone have this information please?
"Surely they must have been aware of the pending election and the potential delays it could cause. Clarity would have been appreciated from the start of the year, rather than a number of very misleading RNSs."
When the deal was announced 2 years ago, the election wasn't even pending! It's either Ametuerish .. or a blatent disregard for PIs (or both).
Good post Telegraphist.
There are a few new names, suddenly posting optimistic messages about confidence in the spiel SAVP are putting out and the timelines. I would ask those people to carefully read back through the other optimistic messages and missed deadlines.
A wider question .. why is there no progress in Niger? When is first oil? Why is this taking years? It seems to me that despite SAVP’s statements, it cannot be commercially viable at this point (no trucks, no roads, no refinery capacity .. whatever reason) .. otherwise I do not understand why we are not pumping oil yet.
All the new folks preaching patience, but I bought on a 10 year plan. But 3 years into it there has been no significant progress and halving of the SP.
I’m Holding .. but not happy!