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Hi S O G great summary thanks
Hi Sado,
Many thanks for your wonderful summary. Fully agree it is matter of time before a bidding war starts.
You are welcome to my thoughts Ahfam as many others.
Far too busy at moment with work @ circa 80 hrs a week. But I feel it puts me outside the gold fish bowl as opposed to being blinkered.
Sp likely to fall graduallly on no news. New broker looking after his clients ( not us) will use trade amounts to establish MK value to sell to its clientele. They are not interested in what Sareum does as all they are is a middle man. AIM get hammered by these people.
The science to me looks stronger than ever before. The attention to detail in getting it right will prevail.
it is Sareums aim to sell at late preclinical or early stage ciinical an objective. Failing that/
However look at Sierra Oncology. To them SRA737 is proving far too good to let it go. Excellent results with likewise excellent ADMET. They cannot afford to develop as have no funds, Alternative fund raising as are Sar now doing.
Should momoletonib prove prosperous and I do believe it will be, then SRA 737 gets a kick which lines us up for milestone payments. Any announcement of such will be worth more than the milestone payment. Sareum has a likely revenue. Once achieved Sareum will have an income. Interesting point here if milestone payment made will significantly up Sareum SP. What price then does the new broker attract investors?
All comes down to money. Big phamas with loaded pockets will not pay anywhere near the value it is worth. Not interested in treatments. As long as their product rakes in millions they will deter or prevent any party that is likely to upset this.
Imagine a big pharma with SDC 1801 and 1802 in its own pipeline with unlimited funds. How much would you put a value on? The mind boggles, the world is corrupt.
Sareum has something special. As Tim said years ago we are not biologists, but what we are very good at is chemistry ( from a very modest man). A genius I would say.
It will come to fruition. Sareum will not be pushed out. Sareum have the abiliy to raise funds.
As an analogy I feel at the moment, sitting down and playing poker and there they have, a good hand as do many others,. But of course you need funds to play life's gain, There they sit Sareums in all its splendour with a Royal flush.
All joking aside. What we have is good. Very, very good. That is my understanding of the science. of course Tim and co and the HNWI are party to, streets ahead of me on their knowledge.
I wonder if they ever read these posts that are put on here,
Regards and a super future to all invested here.
Thank you Sad for taking time out to gove your thoughts. I couldn't agree more in regards meeting the tox to take it to clinic.
In my opinion it is after all essentially why we saw £4.5m flow in 2 weeks prior and a month a bit after the covid research update along with plethora of price monitoring RNS in between.
Many happy returns chaps- so much to look forward and even more excited after Sad's excellent insight.
With regards to toxicity results, In my very honest opinion, is that they will be good but how good by confirmation of results we just don't know until received. Much work has been done in in vitro ( glass petri dishes) or in vivo which is animal and in this case humanised mice.
This is where years of research and getting it pretty well spot on is all about.
I cannot see any reason as to why the toxicity results would not meet the criteria to go into human trials. Human trials are the next step up. MTD was attempted at 30 times treatment levels with no observed adverse side effects.
Since treatment levels were given at between 12.5 mg total body dose to a maximum 10 mg per kilo up to 100 kg body weight ie 1000mg or 1 gramme. I myself await eagerly of the result. Mice do not weigh much compared to a human being.
if we take treatment to establish a MTD it would appear that 30x 12.5 equalling 375mg ( that looks pretty short even at minimum doseage) that the MTD would be based on 30 x 10 mg per kilo equating to a 100kg person receiving 30g. This in preclinical did not create ant adverse effects, Outstanding and of course very difficult to test to extreme with the 'then as were manufacturing. and methods of oral administration to the body. ( Remember the difficulties from Tim expressing concerns as to how sufficient quantities of compound could be manufactured to establish an MTD. ' Perhaps', Tim did say we looking at 100 times, but no info to suggest they ever reached this target.
Bloody good job they have decided to manufacture a capsule. Treatment of targets of course would also be dose dependant.
100% purity of formulation can be guaranteed by the patented 'crystalline formulation of a compound.'
That my pennies worth on this one.
I will add
Il-6 not without its problems and complete irradication of IL-6 with downstream signalling can induce succeptability to risk of infection.
Since ratios are all important ,as is also the dose dependency on attempting to achieve a MTD I believe we will pass with flying colours not only the preclinical toxicology studies to take us into human trials but also pretty well guaranteed a more than adequate safety profile with associated side effects in first stage clinical trials.
The announcement of toxicology results should enable us to go into phase 1 human trials , I have no fear that this will not be achieved.
As for SP, a rapid trip north which may fall slightly until news of stage 1 trials completing. Of course it would be prudent not to rule out with what is happening over the other side of the pond with regards to SRA 737.
Regards
CB trust you and family well - tend to agree, there is a very cautionary stance on SAR which is not a bad thing - I would like to think that is tox results have good indications that provides for step up in sp until we enter CTA and a repeat sequence.
Who knows??
GLA
as things have gone a bit stale here, I went in to Genedrive last week, proved highly profitable should be able to top slice before end of week
Hi Potnak, you have a perfectly valid point with regard to the timescales and so it's feasible the sp could tread water until a CTA is completed. However someone would need balls of steel to think they might be able to sell a chunk of their shares now and invest in something else in the short-term with the expectation that they'll be able to buy back in for around the same sp prior to H2 next year. As you alluded, Sierra might get their finger out.
Everyone here knows SAR doesn't leak and a key RNS could land at any time. I don't know if the forthcoming tox report is priced in at the moment or not but assuming we do get positive results, this is a further derisk and investors will be happier to add more to their holdings if funds allow. How high that demand for more shares will be remains to be seen.
Hope all is well at your end,
Hotblack.
My feeling is that the tox results are NOT priced in. Too much general caution until evidence is seen.
9th August RMS
Dr Tim Mitchell, CEO of Sareum Holdings plc, said: "This new subscription is Sareum's fourth since 1 June this year, reflecting the strong and continuing interest in our proprietary TYK2/JAK1 development programmes in autoimmune diseases, including the immune overreaction to Covid-19, and cancer. With the funds raised during this period now totalling over £4.5 million, our financial position has been significantly strengthened and we are looking forward to completing the preclinical studies with SDC-1801 and advancing it into clinical development, and to progressing the preclinical development of our second TYK2/JAK1 inhibitor SDC-1802.
Just release the results! They obviously have them! Pecuniary advantage!?
1802 similar to 1801 so as proported it's progress is similar.
Not fussed if no likes here. I'm dealing with facts.
We are holding gold. Getting boring.
I'm on the fence with the tox results. I think they will come before the end of the year, mainly because it still stated that in the Edison report and that was edited recently. So unless they planned to shoot themselves in the foot again. The results will be out soon, possibly before the AGM, tomorrow even? However, I'm on the fence as to the news adding value. It's a big hurdle but is it already priced in? We know the new dates for a trial are H2 2022 and the tox results aren't going to change that. So are new investors going to buy and hold at 10p or will they take the risk and wait until the CTA is lodged. There will be a spike of sorts, so it might be a good trading opportunity for the traders amongst us? I've been reading all the posts over the last week or so and lots here seem to be disregarding what the company have told us. Why are they expecting news or a rerate? Other than the tox results, I'm not expecting any news until at least spring next year unless Sierra pull their fingers out? I'm relaxed here and looking for a late 22 or early 23 exit. Just my view, not after getting in at a lower price, just being realistic.
A perfect storm HBD. TREATMENTS AND VERY QUICK TESTS. Tyk tok!
Genedrive: "Hey, we're up over 50% today!!!!"
Sareum: "Hold my beer."
Given the cracking fundamentals here I don't want to cross ramp but dovetailing with treatments are testing requirements. If you have 2 minutes have a read of GDR RNS today.
Cheers HBD looking forward to the results hopefully in timescale they have mentioned and to see what follows after that so far been a good 21 would of been nice to of stayed higher but a good springboard for 2022
GLA
Hi Gunner, the simple answer is 'it depends'.
The longer, trickier, answer is what do the MMs understand about tox issues and how will they respond to a good/great/exceptional result? If the RNS just addresses the result of the tox study then we might see 1 or 2p added to the sp (this is just my vague guess). If the RNS details the tox results and points the way forward e.g. we're heading for AGILE then the sp could initially gain a few pennies more - after all we were above 9p not so long ago.
I think Potnak pointed out a few weeks back that the tox results are just the next step prior to a CTA and whatever trials come next so it might not be the trigger point just yet for a licensee to step into the frame.
Anything can happen so just hold tight and scream if you want to go faster.
When the tox results come back and if good results what type of re rate do you expect and do you also expect deals will be done ASAP or will we wait till after Ph 1 trials ?