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Thanks Krusty, I am aware of what 4d pharma is working on, I was perhaps misled by (or misreading) JBond’s post as it mentioned the value of the Parkinson’s market in the context of SAR, but I can’t find any evidence that they are targeting that market.
(apols for off topic).
AgentB, have a look at 4D pharma (DDDD), they have a collaboration with Parkinson's UK looking to establish a Patient Advisory Board comprising of people living with Parkinson's:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DDDD/collaboration-with-parkinson8217s-uk-ijfto9m77q4pae6.html
Krusty
Please can you point me in the direction of more information about what SAR is doing with Parkinsons (as per JBond post)? I have been through their website and can only find mention of autoimmune treatments (including for Covid) and cancer. Nothing explicit on Parkinsons. I would like to know more on behalf of a recently diagnosed friend. (I have also been noting the strongly rising SP - hence the visit.)
For the newbies here is a copy of what RMM3383 estimated for Sareums value. Add a dose of Covid treatment and you get to serious numbers.
"Building on what Thoth found at the weekend….There are conflicting sizes for the Parkinsons therapeutics global market size (somewhere between £2.8bn and £4.6bn). I’ve gone with the lower estimate just to be prudent. Roche have achieved annual sales of around £278m with Madopar which equates to a 10% share. If one of our molecules was to perform similarly then the lifetime value would be over £2bn. Given the stage we are at a heavily discounted (90%) value would put 7p on the current SP. Get it into P1, with good data and this could easily rise to 21p. At the higher end of the global market estimate we’d be looking at 11.5 and 34p respectively. However, this tends to pale into insignificance when you look at the Covid therapeutics market (excluding vaccines) which was estimated at £13.2bn in 2020. Given the rate of mutation this could easily double in 2021. If TYK2 was to prove effective and gain a 5% share we’d be looking at sales in the region of £1.3bn pa. However, I think a lower P/E is required as vaccines improve and the industry gets on top of the virus. On this basis discounted value today would be 6p on the SP. Get it to P1 and we’re looking at 19p on the SP beyond that it gets serious. Combined value of TYK2 - my previous estimate was around 20p for where we are currently, add on Parkinsons and Covid and we have a SP in the region of 33p today rising to 60p. Then add in FLT3 and that probably adds another 12p minimum. 737 could add another 15p once it gets kick started in anogenital. Then there’s the SKIL platform which I understand to be worth 6p. Total value today in the region of 93p. On the basis that all the above figures are risk discounted should an offer be made for the company it’s possible that bidding would start at around 40p. IMHO our SP should at this point in time be in the 4-6p bracket but we’ve been suppressed. A 10 bagger should easily get us to 50p. More a question of time and options as to when real value will be achieved. A buyout would certainly get us there but if the pharmas hold out on paying sensible money then we head to P1 and poundland beckons. All the above assumes that 1801, 1802, FLT3 and 737 get to their respective next stages. Also none of the above takes into account AIM ‘frenzy’. Whichever way I look at it, a SP of 2.3p is a huge undervaluation. GLA"
go go go!
Mcap at least £500m before news IMO
shake over
5.70/80
If we take the high valuations of other TYK2 deals that were around 800 million and time that by 3. Add a bit for SRA 737 then we have a rough back of fag packet calculation. Do the same for the lower value TYK2 deals and we have a bottom. I reckon anything between 800 million and 2.5 billion could be achieved on some good data.
Rentless buying, trend is our friend.
Potnak- I think Dr Michael Owen is going to his utmost to beat the Kymab $1.8bn deal and make Tyk2 the deal which sees him walk away into retirement.
Great potential as we stand "SDC-1802, is focused on cancer and holds first-in-class promise with value to be unlocked with clinical validation. The out-licensed assets, SRA737 and FLT3+Aurora kinase, are currently de-prioritised but offer upside potential on revived activity.".
Honestly, I do think £1 is achievable but not without some positive clinical feedback. I also think that we won't be allowed to get there. I think we will get an offer while it is still a bargain for big pharma. At the moment, its all a bit messy to do deals so a pipeline buyout seems logical. The potential buyer could then develop or on licence if they wish.
Oh yes, and beyond!
Don't think anyone seriously thinks this will fly to £1 in short time but as above states RMM and Thoths predictions are based on other company's and other products that have reached such potential and price, personally I think we'll get taken out long before then but certainly see double figures in the short term and I remember thoth getting ridiculed saying 28p, not such a fantasy now
Maybe find RMM’s old detailed post breaking down value and potential of the company. Then question it.
At 5p this is already valuing the co at £180M.