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rs28: when I say "fortunate", I mean the virus didn't take off last summer/autumn, when bookings were in full flow.
I don't see why people should now be cancelling bookings months in advance. (I'm not sure what the refund policy is).
There may be last minute cancellations from people who are unable to travel, but that will be covered by travel insurance.
If the epidemic subsides by this summer, bookings for later cruises should not be significantly affected.
pianista...i dont think the existence of the virus is fortunate for anyone including saga. whilst they havent cancelled any cruises yet, i dont think they the sales momentum for cruise will continue at the same positive pace it has been over the past year or so and so there is a short/medium term downside risk. they are also very likely to have many cancellations from passengers and amedments to existing bookings. if they can make it through this unprecedented situation and manage their debts, i am sure they will come through the other side fine. my gut feeling is there will be a profit warning and based on the lower earnings, the re-rating in terms of share price we see now will be appropriate. having said that, if they can get through this rocky period unscathed, it will offer good long term value to holders. to be transparent, i also recently and reluctantly sold my entire (large) holding at a huge loss to preserve some of the capital i had put in whilst we see how this event unfolds. i will continue to watch with interest from the sidelines....good luck all
rs28: "i spoke to saga this morning and they confirmed that all cruises currently scheduled will be taking place. the only cancellations are the china holiday tours. looking at the booking rates, it appears that most of the cruises are booked 70-80% at least for the remainder of the year"
..in which case, the timing of the virus was fortunate for Saga, and the big drop today bizarre.
exactly whats needed, a cooling off period to take a step back and look at the facts and situation with a level head. this has ticked between 31 and 32p all day and i wonder if the institutions are buying in at this rock bottom price or perhaps existing holders topping up.
Ooo loooks like 20 not going to be reached :)...Over weekend people will cool down and realize flu seasons pass. Now its bargain time.
Saw this on IG and realised how ridiculous the reaction is:-
Dow's previous worst weeks:
2008: Lehman Brothers -18.55%
1933: Great Depression -15.55%
2001: .com crash -14.26%
1940: UK faces threat of invasion -14.21%
1929: Wall Street crash - 13.52%
1987: Black Monday - 13.17%
2020: Coronavirus
20 's here we come :(
good luck SJ. this situation is a real test of nerve and from what we know at this stage, 32p will prove to be an excellent purchase imo but there are of course further short term risks.
on a side note, i spoke to saga this morning and they confirmed that all cruises currently scheduled will be taking place. the only cancellations are the china holiday tours. looking at the booking rates, it appears that most of the cruises are booked 70-80% at least for the remainder of the year. good luck everyone
whole thing is a complete over reaction, media field day. The death toll rate of SARs was significantly higher than the coronavirus rates (sars 10% mortality rate) and yet there was none of this hysteria. Once the flu season is over in a few weeks I will be enjoying the gains from 32p!
maestro - you make a good point about the numbers in china. in such a congested and populated country, i am surprised that they have contained the virus in the way they are portraying. of course the validity of the numbers is questionable but if the trend is true in that they are now recording a steady decline of new infections/deaths then that surely is a positive. the majority of cases outside of china are linked to china in some way. the number of those infected in reality is probably far higher with those showing no symptoms or common cold sympton likely to take no action. if that is the case, then the mortality rate is likely to be much lower in line with common influenza. i still think its a big over-reaction on the basis there is no definitive study on how contagious the virus is, mortality rates etc. etc. we do know that even if you contract the virus, providing you are reasonably healthy it is unlikely to be any worse than flu and people will recover fully. but as maestro points out, the measures being taken are drastic in order to stem the flow and put the public on high awareness which is the right thing to do in the circumstances but clearly markets are spooked at the potential damage it could cause to the global economy. it doesnt help that the media are creating worst case scenario headlines to sell papers. the main major risk to saga is a potential quaratining of a ship, being turned away from cruise ports or indeed a travel ban. the travel division will no doubt take a hit too on sales/bookings short to medium term until the public remove the unknowns surrounding the virus. on a positive note, the company should report earnings as per guidance in april and the insurance side which makes up the majority of the company has stabilised. good luck all
Maestro,
yes...but the issue here in Europe is to remind people just what an effort China made to contain the virus...in order to keep that number of cases down ...especially outside Wuhan and Hubei...transport dropped over 80% ..trains,planes,cars...80% less
That I think is the worry of the situation...in the sense that the Governments are sending out a message to say...look...get yon top of hygiene, get the extra cleaners in NOW ...get heads totally focused on this and quite possbly nothing else
...so...that..we hopefully dont have to go to such drastic and extreme measures....
personal hygiene in ANY public place is now No1 issue , as well as personal responsibility ...I think that is the kind of message that the authoritites are trying to pass through in public areas and work places
Considering that there a over a billion people in China and yet there are only 80,000 Coronavirus cases, it would appear that there has been a complete overreaction by the markets as a result of all the media hype..all this from some dodgy bloke in downtown Wuhan who's been busy collecting diseased and virus infested wildlife ready to fry in a Wok and serve on a bed of noodles...time then to sit back and wait for confidence to return which will only happen when the number of new virus transmissions shows a continued decline..could be a fair few months though.
"As of 27 February, a total of 7,690 people have been tested in the UK, of which 7,675 were confirmed negative and 15 positive."
When you consider how many people have arrived say at Heathrow and passed into London , during the phase of time when people may have returned from Thailand, South Korea, China etc etc ..then the figures are extremely low
and.. "so far" the US has only 2 people who have tested positive that havent arrived into the US from abroad already carrying the virus.....and the focus on getting people aware and on top of hygiene will be no bad thing, despite the panic it is causing the stock market. Even workplaces now will be having meetings and preparing everyone for hygiene awareness and even recruiting extra cleaning at their premises to try and keep on top of potential issues...again, no bad thing
I think this panic is certainly made to prepare Europe/US, but the awareness/knowledge after the Chinese situation should help
..and if that short/sharp/shock for a few weeks to get on top of the situation helps ....in the mid term it will be not bad thing
2 more reasons..
3) preservation of capital
4) as you are sure there are ETFs elsewhere that can recoup your money (once market cull ends)
Well Blondie.. "Events, dear boy, events"... US off 4%, biggest fall in it's history. FTSE Futures off 3.5%. Not so "clownish" after all, my comment, was it?
Whilst the outlook isn't exactly rosy for now, there are surely only 2 reasons you'd sell right now:
1) You really need your money for something, non investment related.
2) You're sure that there's a company elsewhere who can recoup your money.
I'm not sure given how the markets are right now, that there is such a guarantee for Number 2.
Let's not lose our heads people. Sit tight and be patient xx