Sapan Ghai, CCO at Sovereign Metals, discusses their superior graphite test results. Watch the video here.
Interesting posts guys, thanks. i would agree, i think dividends are going to be some while off yet until the 'ship' has been steadied which all going well may happen Q3 next year with a little luck. definately a recovery play here with some short term headwinds but great long term potential. good luck all
i dont think we are predicting falls, just speculating on the impact of a final no deal outcome which may not materialize although at the moment looks like a feasible outcome. i should say on the flip side, if a deal is reached (Even though its unlikely to be much different from a no deal on detail), the positive sentiment this will bring, in my opinion, would likely add 10-20% within a short period particularly as brokers are continually revising their targets upwards. must admit the GS RNS (Selling) updates are puzzling and i dont have the knowledge to form a conclusion on although it doesn't appear to be causing any panic with this share so i suspect you are right and their is some strategy being played out behind the scenes. good luck all!
Any predictions on potential price fall if no deal confirmed Sunday? Personally think some of it is priced in given we are around 5-10% down on peak prices hit over last couple of weeks. I don’t think there will be much further damage (perhaps another 5-10% hit) in event of no deal short term and then a gradual recovery over 2021 assuming pandemic recedes but interested to hear others thoughts.
must admit i don't know the ins/outs of the technical side of the construction or where any 'corners were cut' etc as amarulla suggests. although if that was the case, i would question how this 'non-compliance' was signed off by building control? if it was planned one way and built another, then there has been a failure in the regulatory process (Building control). after all, these flats cannot be sold until building control have issued practical completion certificates confirming they are satisfied with the construction and its compliance against the approved plans. unfair on unsuspecting and innocent leaseholders in these developers who should not have to foot the bill imo. the government should pick up the bill for this or bdev should have kept the furlough funds and put it to rectifying these issues! Good luck all.
i agree, i imagine there will be a rush from business to advertise their products and services as we return to normality. a lot of advertising spend was put on hold over 2020 and businesses will want to capitalise on a return to the high street, holidays etc. itv will be one of the first in line to benefit from the upturn and the recent trading statement already indicates this despite it coming out during a period of lockdown. brexit agreement will be another sentiment driver for this to head north - with more upside from an agreement than downside from no deal imo
to make the point another way. if you were a homeowner and did an extension to your property. you pay an architect to obtain planning, prepare working drawings and then have these checked and approved by building control before commencing work. lets say you do this and all approved then you give a contract to a builder to construct according to plans (That have been approved in terms of design and materials), complete it and then have it all signed off by the body that is supposed to ensure safety/compliance etc (building control). then a few years later, you realise that one of the materials used that was approved is now deemed defective. would you as the homeowner be comfortable paying for remedial work to put something right that was given a green light previously by the relevant authorities? developers are there to generate profits, thats how a business works but not imo to underwrite the failures in regulatory bodies. having said that it would be an ethical decision to contribute or cover the cost of remedying the defects if the government will not accept liability at least to safeguard the reputation of the developer.
the cladding scandal that presumably government/council building control (or their appointed contractors) signed off as satisfactory and meeting regulations. the blame is not entirely on the developers, liability lies with the manufacturers, architects, building control/regulations (government) and developers. whilst the developers may have an ethical obligation to put this right at their cost, really they should be compensated by government for a failure in the regulatory process imo.
An interesting snippet from IG News. Morgan Stanley specifically mentioning ITV as a top 5 cyclical/value stock to benefit from Brexit Deal etc:-
2021: Uk Stocks’ Time... But With A Brexit Deal (1121 Gmt)
While there is a broadening consensus on a strong economic rebound in 2021, some analysts argue that the winners of this process might be the hard-battered UK stocks; but with a deal on Brexit.
Morgan Stanley says “recent vaccine news flow cements our faith in a strong recovery next year and helps the Value rotation, while a Brexit deal, if and when approved, should also provide some support to UK assets.” The investment bank, which expects the FTSE 100 to rise 17% versus a 10% gain seen for the MSCI Europe, mentions four reasons why we will see "a rebound in value which will favour UK performance":
. UK is likely to see stronger EPS growth after a large fall in 2020
. the pound is expected to stage a modest decline, versus a decent appreciation of the euro
. a Brexit deal will provide a tactical rebound in UK risk assets
. UK stocks are very cheap compared with global peers
In the chart below the MSCI UK index
UK Cyclicals valuations Here are the five UK cyclicals which offer significant potential upside, according to Morgan Stanley: ITV , Hays , Marks & Spencer , NatWest and Taylor Wimpey .
(Stefano Rebaudo)
Been watching this share from the sidelines for some time now having dipped in and out over last year or so. as others have rightly pointed out, many advertisers will not spend now as they cannot service the business but it is a question of when (not if) the lockdown/restrictions will be lifted. at that point, all of the companies that have lost revenues and then have the opportunity to start selling again will all want to advertise to regain lost sales etc. there could be huge demand for advertising space allowing ITV to mark up some of its slots. next year will bode well with the Euros and other sporting tournaments too so medium term, i think this will prove to be a good investment. short term likely to be further volatility in line with the wider markets. good luck all
the real risk here imo is the cruise business and lockdown situation. the company have sensibly demonstrated that their client base are willing to back the cruise business by rebooking cancelled cruises (50%) and with good sales rate from september 2020 onwards. BUT the big issue is whether the lockdown will be lifted in a way that allows cruise liners to return to seas. personally i cant see this happening for many more months to come given we are not only at mercy of the uk position but so many other european countries allowing access into ports to make a cruise itenirary work. a resurgence in cases will only make matters worse so there is further downside risk imo which is why the share price is so suppressed but at current levels offers a wide margin of safety. i would hate to think what they would do without insurance which thankfully is holding up well. if restrictions are lifted and this allows for cruises to commence in say June/July, the share price will rise sharply imo. as long as restrictions dont go beyond the end of this year for cruises, then i think the company will make it through and will re-rate accordingly. the delay of the 2nd ship is a blessing in disguise although the updates from what i have read have not said what the financial implications are and any benefits/drawbacks this may bring. i would have thought it would mean they could delay further loan drawdowns (saving interest) and who knows maybe a discount (penalty) from the supplier for late delivery depending on the contractual terms. good luck all
over 70's advised to not go on cruises if they have any medical issues. i can see more and more countries refusing ships to dock so a lot of pressure at the moment. has to be damage limitation on the cruise/tour operations. fuel is already hedged until end of 2020 and 50% to 2021 i understand so not sure if they would even benefit from the lower prices we see today. if only they can produce some strong results/growth on the insurance side which is possible to fund the cruise/holiday losses in the short term, they will make it through.
imo i dont think saga will go under. they have good cashflow from the insurance side, they can scrap the dividend to reduce debt and the sale of the care business/benetts will ease their cash flow troubles at least for a year or so whilst the CV issue is consolidated. this will of course lead to a reduction in profits for 20/21 and hence a re-rating on the share price we see today. i think the cruise sector is resilient and growing although it will take time (and perhaps a little longer for saga due to their market demoraphic) for confidence to return to the sector so that people return to book holidays/cruises. if they can make it through the rest of this year and CV issues subside, this could be a good buy for the medium term but with significant risk.
pianista...i dont think the existence of the virus is fortunate for anyone including saga. whilst they havent cancelled any cruises yet, i dont think they the sales momentum for cruise will continue at the same positive pace it has been over the past year or so and so there is a short/medium term downside risk. they are also very likely to have many cancellations from passengers and amedments to existing bookings. if they can make it through this unprecedented situation and manage their debts, i am sure they will come through the other side fine. my gut feeling is there will be a profit warning and based on the lower earnings, the re-rating in terms of share price we see now will be appropriate. having said that, if they can get through this rocky period unscathed, it will offer good long term value to holders. to be transparent, i also recently and reluctantly sold my entire (large) holding at a huge loss to preserve some of the capital i had put in whilst we see how this event unfolds. i will continue to watch with interest from the sidelines....good luck all
exactly whats needed, a cooling off period to take a step back and look at the facts and situation with a level head. this has ticked between 31 and 32p all day and i wonder if the institutions are buying in at this rock bottom price or perhaps existing holders topping up.
Saw this on IG and realised how ridiculous the reaction is:-
Dow's previous worst weeks:
2008: Lehman Brothers -18.55%
1933: Great Depression -15.55%
2001: .com crash -14.26%
1940: UK faces threat of invasion -14.21%
1929: Wall Street crash - 13.52%
1987: Black Monday - 13.17%
2020: Coronavirus
good luck SJ. this situation is a real test of nerve and from what we know at this stage, 32p will prove to be an excellent purchase imo but there are of course further short term risks.
on a side note, i spoke to saga this morning and they confirmed that all cruises currently scheduled will be taking place. the only cancellations are the china holiday tours. looking at the booking rates, it appears that most of the cruises are booked 70-80% at least for the remainder of the year. good luck everyone