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I'm not sure thats the case at the mo re: cavendish... I don't think Cav are selling much more than housekeeping now so are no longer 'particularly' contributing to holding the SP back ... seems to me Cav is holding as much as realistically possible in both funds... something that fits in with AA's comments recently and bodes well imo.
I think current selling pressure holding the SP in range is what Mac have left (assuming L&G have gone by now.... along with other sub 3% large holders de-risking, rebalancing or just getting bored. (it was boring around 6p eh)
Of course... Institutional buying can also lead to the SP being managed in range just as much as selling.
I figure it looks like we have had around 10% of the company churned between Cav rebalancing / Mac and L&G selling and PIs. That's in just less than 3 months or so since re-list ... how much left ? I'd guess at 2-3% ?
It will all come out in the wash but a few more weeks to clear sellers followed by a steady move up and a £500m deal will do me for a happy xmas :)
It may be that II and particularly Cavendish selling is holding back the SP. RRE has made a significant contribution to their funds' performance and the Opportunities fund would be quite poor without RRE. They may not be in a desperate hurry given the potential for a further SP rise with the next news. It is a pity more IIs are not taking an interest but there seems to be a lot of risk aversion to this sector. Cavendish AIM fund is an exception with Serica and others held.
It's not just Cav selling ... Mac were selling aggressively before suspension from around 6p levels and have continued to sell since relist, last seen at just under 4% and probably no requirement to notify and further crosses. (sub5%). L&G went sub 3% just after relist.
Cav have 2 funds that RRE is held in... I see it that fund guidlelines are that they should not be holding more than 10% of the fund's mcap in any one stock. RRE was already pretty maxed out for them and after relist and a 150% or so rise, RRE went well over that so they had to rebalance by selling some.
Obviously fund mcaps move up and down as do the value of the stocks they hold.
So.... some fag packet calcs at the mo tells me that at just under 11% Cavendish have around £24m worth.
According to HL at the mo (which may not be up to speed of course) ...
The Cavendish Opportunities fund has a £126m mcap and 11.77% is RRE so around £14.83m
The Cavendish AIM fund (even though RRE is not on AIM) has a £95m mcap (which has dropped recently) and 11.96% is around £11.6m
So total holding in RRE according to HL stats is worth around £26m
According to the last TR1 Cav just trimmed a bit down to around £24m worth ... which would fit nicely, give or take movements, around trimming to stay around 10% or each fund ?
In addition ... AA did mention in an interview a few weeks back that cavendish were sorted regards selling ... this would also fit and explain why they have just trimmed a relatively small amount since.
So could be that Cavendish are about done rebalancing ? ... tbh, originally I was expecting them to drop to around 8% in total but if current mcaps (funds and RRE) suggest 10% in each fund fits them being at around 10% in total of RRE then that could be revised and would suggest they are happy to hold as much as possible within fund guidelines... which is good.
If that be the case then selling pressure is likely largely from Mac, who we know ere keen to sell down in the 6p range ... so will be ecstatic to be selling more in the 18p range... also other sub 3% holders who may be taking profits.
Happy to have holes poked in my $hit maths :)
not specifically 10% but Cavendish fund literature refers to a " diversified portfolio" hence their trimming of their RRE holding which was the main reason for their fund's recent outperformance
actually published anywhere is it an opinion of a BB warrior?