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Definitely. If I remember correctly the 100 was based on the top academic facilities in the country, because that's where their reach will be. Whereas bracco will have commercial channels into a significant proportion of all pulmonary imaging departments, across various geographies. The opportunity or speed of take up will be exponentially greater.
Balanced, thanks for clarification that they are add-ons.
My 5-6 per month is based on their 18month business plan from launch target of 100 in the Feb presentation. However subsequently as you know, Bracco have backed us and have their man on the board. So it may well be that they will be looking for a more aggressive take up now.
Sorry Acuere misread your per month for per year
They mention 35000 plus machines so they wouldn't just be making a handful of 5-6 a year as they would never be able to tackle the market opportunity!
Acuere
This is from the Polx presentation and the product is compatible with existing MRI systems.
" Polarean’s products are “add-ons” compatible with existing MRI systems from GE, Siemens,
Philips etc
• There is a global installed base of >35,000 clinical MRI systems (and 3,500 preclinical ones)
• Polarean’s Xenon imaging procedure increases hospital MRI systems “asset utilisation” and
profitability (“new products for radiology”)
My take from the February presentation is that they would hope to shift 5 or 6 a month on average. I guess a lot will depend when clients are looking to replace existing MRI units.
This from GE Healthcare in 2017:-
“On average, 50% of the installed MRI base will be replaced within 11 years of their installation with an average replacement cycle of 11.5 years, and ranging from 3 to 22+ years. The general feeling is that 1 out of every 5 MRI systems is older than 10 years.”
Another chunky buy - 50k at 80p, following on from the 46k at 76p earlier, free float rapidly diminishing, no surprise given the reasons outlined below!
Might be a useful stat to keep in mind:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/282401/density-of-magnetic-resonance-imaging-units-by-country/
In the United States, there are approximately 11,900 MRI systems. Between 60% and 75% operate at 1.5; less than 25% below 1.5 Tesla, around 10% at 3.0 Tesla (2012; rounding error). One quarter of all systems in the United States are open, the rest conventional closed systems. In general, markets differ in their local demands.
thanks again Balanced 66 it does look a good bet .
Hi PrivateRyan
Rarely will any company give such a detailed breakdown especially when it is an emerging leader in its area of expertise. I'm invested in Novacyt and even now we do not get such detailed figures about production capacity etc. even though the company is making huge sales.
What is clear here is that the focus so far has been research and development. It is now due to move onto its commercial phase. It will be making a heck of a lot more machines than the handful to date that's a given. The machines to date are for research purposes so it is not able to charge full commercial rates according to my understanding.
It will not be making 5-6 machines after drug approval as that is not a viable business model and it will not achieve its initial declared aim from this statement taken from the Final results rns:
"The Opportunity
The US Healthcare system's annual burden of pulmonary disease continues unabated costing approximately US$150 billion and your Directors still see a tremendous opportunity to bring our technology's quantitative, reproducible, non-invasive method for diagnostic and therapeutic guidance to medicine. If anything, the events of the global COVID-19 pandemic seem likely to create additional demand for managing post infection patients through extended recovery and therapeutic regimes. We have refined and extended our development of the healthcare economic analyses to support the adoption by providers of our technology, working with experts in the field. Over the planning horizon of the first 48 months post commercial launch, the Group maintains its intent to address the high end of the US academic and teaching hospital market segment, which comprises approximately the top 1,000 institutions nationally having multiple Centers of Excellence in Pulmonary Medicine and Radiology. The combined addressable market there for our products approaches US$500m in equipment sales alone."
Now how much profit would the company need to make to justify its current valuation?
From the figures provided by Genericname it's quite easy to see that the company will almost certainly be making similar profit or more from the after service of the machines than it does from the sale of them.
On that basis the installed machines to date may give a recurring profit of around 3-4 million alone (Justin Waite has explained this in his video).
So the current valuation is arguably supported by the machine sales to date.
1000 machine sales on a pe of 30 which is conservative for a fast growing high tech company would make around a £3 billion market cap. This is without the rest of the world.
Bracco are very likely to have a big input in all of this before any likely takeover - the mention of mutually beneficial and will assist with ramping up production:
"We also welcome our new strategic investor, Bracco Imaging S.p.A and look forward to growing this mutually beneficial relationship. We are confident and excited for the
much obliged squad...... !
Sorry sent twice !
Private - Any extra manufacturing need will be filled up by Bracco their partner. For addition infos:
https://www.polarean-ir.com/docs/librariesprovider37/archive/presentations/polarean-roadshow-march-2018.pdf?sfvrsn=fe2303f8_2
thanks very much
will investigate further.
Private - Any extra manufacturing need will be filled up by Bracco their partner.
From the investor presentation, this would suggest looking to sell 100 at launch.
“EXECUTE the Launch
Optimize a Controlled Launch With Ventilation Claim in Limited Institutional Targets (n~100) with a Lean Sales, Marketing, Customer Service, and Reimbursement Team”
thanks balanced66 How can the manufacturing be ramped up ie what is the manufacturing capacity . are these big specialist machines or conveyor belt type machines? genuine question as I havent been following this. Cant believe it hasnt been raised before.? anyone know ?
Polx has a suite of patents for its technology around 30ish last time I looked and it was looking to lodge new patents as well.
There is also another barrier to entry and that is this is a drug/device combination so any proposed competitor would have to go through the long and arduous task of funding, pre clinical, phase 1 and 2 and then phase 3 trials followed by phase NDA. It's not an easy task to get through to phase 3 successfully and most companies fail. Getting to phase 3 can take up to 10 years or more!
Any competition could not rely on our successful phase 3 to say their product works as our FDA approval when it comes will be for our specific drug/device combo; I've learnt this from one of my other investments where my other company has licensed its technology for use by those biotechs and those biotechs if they wanted to use another company's products would have to start all the clinical trials again from the beginning!
Could have been a fund buying in now we are over £100 mill mc
The 277k buy yesterday afternoon certainly changed the direction again, it makes you wonder if the market makers brought it back down purposefully to fill that buy order...
What would this be valued at on the NASDAQ? A heck of a lot more than $160m that's for sure!
POLX new technique is protected by its IP. So unless it's a new diagnostic tool using another procedure, I cannot see any competition at all. The conclusion is that anyone wanting to replicate must pay for the royalties according to POLC terms and conditions. So the barriers of entry are very high.
Squadraazzura
Thanks for confirming. I agree very likely to be taken over but they will have to pay a very good price before shareholders agree to any sale.
Balance: Yes they are working to expand it to cardiovascular diseases. Also, as the screening is safe, it can be extensively used to follow up Covid patients with lung damage evolution during treatment. One can see this is a revolutionary diagnostic tool.
POLX have not competition as its hyperpolaised 129Xenon gas and device are fully patented.
I'm fairly sure I read a while ago that their technology could also possibly be used for other areas of the body as well so other future possibilities as well but the current proposed use is massive in itself.