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Expect more of this.
Decomm liabilities are there for all oil companies (as we all know). This is paid for and, to be honest, poor journalism. It will affect the SP short term perhaps, but I'd be surprised to see any real movements within a week or two (not negating oil itself as ever).
Some will sell to buy back lower, but c'est la vie. I stay with the pure fact that ACRM did not have to disclose now after all this time unless they had a motive. PIs will not be able to fend them off (as ARCM know well), but bigger lenders and institutional investors could absolutely smash them to pieces. Is the appetite there or not? You'll all draw your own conclusions as I do.
This stinks. The article also states concerns over $1.2 bil liabilities for decommissioning.
Clearly trying to attack the share price in my opinion
True hunter, if the fundamentals are strong as most believe, financing will be sorted. May 2021 refinance is no secret, but a ARCM are clearly desperate. Why else would this article have been published, it reflects their weakness.
As per the data I posted earlier, they are in a massive loss situation at present. It is a panic situation for them, but they have deep pockets still to influence the SP via reporting. In my opinion only, there will be more than one lender willing to loan the whole lot and that will be the death of ARCM. The result will also be a true SP, making the lender(s) position loaning that much more attractive.
I am heavily invested and have been for some considerable time, yet this particular situation does not fill with fear. Unlike the debacles of the past couple of years, I see this as giving our SP real potential and finally getting rid of the leeches.
Each to their own and no advice from me .. but I'll be staying. The original disclosure did sod all over a week; this will be the same - until the next article.
IMO the only reason for this article is to undermine the sp, simple. First we had the reveal, now part 2,. Wouldn’t be surprised if their are paid shorters on these boards, if I was in arcms position I’d be doing all I could to create instability.
Looks very scare mongery if u ask me, figures wrong and 2 separate claims re lenders forcing asset sales and also looking for break up at same time. Which is it?
Think that PMO do now need to say something. As this is a uk paper making claims on behalf of lenders.
Says it all for the telegraph reporting that it’s £2bn of outstanding loans not the correct $2bn. But hey let’s not let facts get in the way. ARCM are panicking and calling in all the favours they can from their friends in the press. Love to see POO spike soon to really put the wind up them.
Beerbull, As you rightly say, they are trying to create trouble now, similar to the enemy in the last refinancing. All will start to become clearer no doubt, however, I strongly believe PMO and TD has known about their push for this, for a long time and also about their big short.
The fact there is no information apart from the media, does make me a little cautious, as in my books, there is no smoke without fire. It all creates uncertainty which is what the market does not like. Hopefully, once the refinancing is done again, shorters will be off pmo back and it can all move forward in a positive way.
Has anyone got a subscription to the telegraph that can post the full article........link below.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/12/14/lenders-plot-break-up-premier-oil-loans-loom/
That did not take long: Guess that also tells all that ARCM's exits stratagey is not at 95p or they were not expecting PoO and PMO to be doing this well.
Wonder if the financial have any clout in HK, where/who fed the telegraph such info, should email them Telegraph and Sunday Mail to look at the bigger story: Overseas shorters trying to kill a UK company?
Keep the faith.
Rgdrs Sft
Telegraph saying PMO “hurtles towards a deadline to pay back £2bn of loans” is just plain outrageous scare tactics reporting probably started / backed by our “ friends” in Hong Kong.
& so the PR storm begins, Telegraph article re lenders pushing for PMO to be broken up... it’s starting to get nasty.....
I think we will see a stream of leaks, red herring or otherwise and all to spook pi,s to sell
With Oil up and the Saudi's pushing for it to remain there, some concern over low financial returns and future lending in the USA shale, Trump/Chinese talks possibley improving, Zama sale looking to be a possible success, 88e potential, Catcher doing really well, Tolmount moving forward? Tax credits still secure (no Corbyn), possible financing for SL (that would have to cover the RKH carry). It does beg the question what is the average cost of their short, do they think PoO will remain steady at $60/65 (brent) or drop, what was/ is their actual exit strategy in the short.
It would be good if not actually required, as others have said, that PMO make some comment...but does that reveal PMOs play on getting free of the current loan terms?
I would not be suprised to see ARCM (through others) try another info leak to try and spook investors....but with all of the above positive points for PMO..It would be interesting to see in what form it comes.
GLA
Rgds Sft
In the past few years overseas money has stayed away from the UK due to Brexit uncertainty. In the same timeframe PMO nearly went bust due to Solan and the subsequent debt burden and POO has been a nightmare. Fast forward to today and the debt is lower, We have Zama, Catcher is outperforming, Tolmount looks amazing, POO looks stable etc etc. So post the election overseas cash will look at PMO and say what ? Way overvalued or way undervalued ? If I were ACRM l would not be happy right now. I can’t wait for those ********’s to get what’s coming to them.
Probably the banks are still or at least have been very conservative with lending, I know when we were buying our house, (I know it's not the same) all the major lenders wouldn't even look at us; my own bank were I have had an account for 40 years and have run my business from was nowhere near a competitive rate because of my self-employed status.
Can imagine it having been the same with major banks looking at the oil industry, and hence why PMO almost went under and ended up with this current situation.
hopefully Zama and improving oil price will open the doors to better rates and then the higher oil price pays it off quicker. Finger crossed.
LTT
I’m totally with you that they’re are in a much better position than 2017 to refinance at better rates, just depends on the technicalities the likes of ARCM use to try force a way out for themselves. Pyrrho had a sour taste last time out,
I suspect PMO really need to clarify what the best and worst case scenarios are. Will try IR if they back in the office next week
If its a short related to refi than why would they be confident that no mainstreet bank/s wouldnt take on that debt at for example 5%? In 2021.
PMO moved from over barrel to sitting on a stool since 2017. Anyway, what will be will be.
Basis risk is too high to be covered just by buying oil futures, and they leave themselves too wide open to an equity squeeze, and suspect they are a bit more careful and savvy than that. Call protection ? Or confident or were confident on forcing an equity raise? AHL and Whitebox don’t share their confidence as they reduce. Pure coincidence probably but our original good friend appears when Whitebox look to get out again? But being FCA regulated I doubt it could be true...,?
Also see our 2 debt wire posters only made brief appearances...,nice to see that they take time to read this board and all of our exceptional investment knowledge....good luck to all our Hong Kong readers.
Anybody found any connections between ARCM and Pyrrho?
Oil behaving well so far, only a US truce with Iran stops the Saudis getting back to the 65-70 target range. Temporarily gives the US drilling economy a reprieve, until no doubt election date gets nearer.
The interesting part that you'll notice from the data, apart from the correlation, is just how much of their position is currently in a 'loss' position (as at yesterday). It makes me wonder, bearing in mind how long they have been building this without declaring, if their major or sole intent was designed to scare the market and hence lower the price allowing them to close out most at a profit.
Whlist we all know things in this market and PMO can change rapidly, they may well find themselves somewhat out of pocket. Personally, if I were TD (and genuinely knew sod all about this until declared), I would hold off my Zama and any other SP enhancing news as late as possible - I'd then fire the full salvo !!!
Probably buying oil oil futures also
May be interesting for some of you to create your own Excel graphs from. Taken the daily price of each notification. If you produce a couple of graphs, you'll notice the exact correlation between the price falling and their increased shorting activity. Where the price rose for a period, their shorts stayed much the same!!
Date Short % Price Paid (theory)
05-Jul-19 16.85 73.7
04-Jul-19 16.76 73.8
03-Jul-19 16.64 74.9
01-Jul-19 16.42 82.0
28-Jun-19 16.53 76.9
27-Jun-19 16.41 79.0
26-Jun-19 16.29 78.2
25-Jun-19 16.16 74.6
24-Jun-19 16.03 74.5
21-Jun-19 15.90 76.5
20-Jun-19 15.78 77.3
19-Jun-19 15.65 73.1
18-Jun-19 15.52 73.5
17-Jun-19 15.17 69.6
14-Jun-19 14.83 70.4
13-Jun-19 14.49 72.5
12-Jun-19 14.29 70.0
11-Jun-19 14.08 75.0
10-Jun-19 13.82 74.5
07-Jun-19 13.68 75.5
06-Jun-19 13.50 73.5
05-Jun-19 13.32 73.4
04-Jun-19 12.97 78.0
03-Jun-19 12.75 77.8
31-May-19 12.49 78.1
30-May-19 12.23 84.6
29-May-19 12.18 83.1
28-May-19 11.98 86.6
23-May-19 11.82 82.0
21-May-19 11.70 98.0
20-May-19 11.65 97.0
17-May-19 11.58 99.4
16-May-19 11.48 98.3
15-May-19 11.30 90.4
13-May-19 11.20 86.4
09-May-19 11.10 85.7
08-May-19 11.02 91.0
07-May-19 10.95 88.7
02-May-19 10.82 91.4
30-Apr-19 10.70 99.8
29-Apr-19 10.62 98.2
26-Apr-19 10.48 98.2
13-Mar-19 10.34 82.9
24-Dec-18 10.40 58.0
21-Dec-18 10.37 57.1
20-Dec-18 10.20 56.8
19-Dec-18 10.06 62.4
18-Dec-18 9.88 61.3
17-Dec-18 9.76 65.0
14-Dec-18 9.52 67.6
13-Dec-18 9.34 70.7
11-Dec-18 9.21 72.8
07-Dec-18 9.04 75.9
06-Dec-18 8.75 66.1
05-Dec-18 8.50 74.6
29-Nov-18 8.48 70.1
28-Nov-18 8.54 68.5
27-Nov-18 8.29 70.3
26-Nov-18 7.96 72.1
23-Nov-18 7.70 64.8
22-Nov-18 7.40 72.8
21-Nov-18 7.26 77.8
20-Nov-18 6.99 76.6
19-Nov-18 6.68 80.8
16-Nov-18 6.38 81.8
15-Nov-18 6.06 85.3
14-Nov-18 5.76 93.7
13-Nov-18 5.46 95.2
12-Nov-18 5.27 100.0
08-Nov-18 4.67 105.7
05-Nov-18 4.57 107.0
02-Nov-18 4.42 107.2
01-Nov-18 4.23 103.9
31-Oct-18 4.19 107.8
30-Oct-18 4.07 102.3
26-Oct-18 3.90 103.0
25-Oct-18 3.72 106.2
24-Oct-18 3.58 105.5
23-Oct-18 3.45 107.5
22-Oct-18 3.29 114.0
19-Oct-18 3.16 121.0
07-Sep-18 3.06 114.3
06-Sep-18 2.98 117.7
05-Sep-18 3.10 119.7
29-Aug-18 3.00 116.8
16-Aug-18 2.90 113.7