The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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I think we will have to live with it. When there is an outbreak at a school or whatever then shut down for a few weeks. Reminds me of the norovirus on the cruise ships. Ships occasionally being qurantined became no that big news. I see this bug having the same effect. We probably can't stop it (we will try of course). But it may become impossible so we will have to live with it like we do loads of other diseases. Simple as that.
All IMHO.
EC, 8 schools shut already ...no containment?!!
Agree, the need to be careful ... supermarket trolleys, public transport, shop workers ... ! We will either have to contain it or live with it and hope that we are in the 98-99%.
There won't be containment as it is not necessary IMHO. It's a case of being careful in trying to avoid it. If you fall ill I'm sure it will soon (is it already?) easy to get tested. If you have it I believe you will be going home to self quarrantine while you hopefully recover (4 out of 5 chance of only minor symptoms). Then if you get worse off to hospital. Just like any other illness you get. Regarding this quarters results I know both PMO and CNE have about 35% of their oil hedged @ over $60 a barrel.........
All IMHO.
Groover, yep may be cr*p, but it's a self-fulfilling event now. The hysteria is in the markets and in the population like it or not - Japan closing its schools for almost a month. We are talking absolutely tiny numbers in most of the World at present so, one would hope, it can be contained (not holding my breath though - umm, perhaps I should lol)
EC, I understand your general jist, but China has a population (est.) of about 1.4bn, not 2bn.
I think you have, however, spotted the elephant in the room - China can, did and is able to lock down populations not far off the entire populous of the UK; it just won't / can't happen here. Without containment of some form, we will all get it before a vaccine is out.
As ever, over time, things will recover and Thunberg will once again take her place on the front page, but this could be a very long slog. Unless it is contained and things show improvement / 'eradication' over the next few weeks, then we could be ruling out the rest of this year. ... and that will be the litmus test in my view, do things get back to normal irrespective, or is this going to be the start of the next recession? One thing is for sure now, this quarter's results aren't going to look great for many companies.
DOW down over 600 points again while people continue to completely overreact to Coronavirus. Dow futures only showed a 163 drop an hour ago. Think it's pathetic how so many are running scared.
Idiot Australian PM is only stoking the flames by more uneducated statements. DOW will be down 3000 points by tomorrow and markets could take a year or more to recover.
Utterly crap all round
If the market panics then there is nothing much we can do but wait for it to see sense.
There are only 6 countries with over 100 cases.
Even if you are unlucky enough to get it you have a 98% chance of recovery.
China's workers have been/are going back to work. I presume they will manage the bug simply by testing people that feel ill to see if they have it. If so home to bed for 2 weeks. If it gets serious go to hospital.
China was able to seal off it's cities, but I doubt that will happen in most countries.
There are 2,000,000,000 in China and about 80,000 WERE ill. 33,000 of them have recovered.80,000 - 33,000 is 47,000. That is 0.0023% of the population.
I find it frustrating the BBC says 15 cases, and then the last line in the article says 8 of them have recovered. So we have 7. RUN FOR THE HILLS!!! A vaccine CAN be done we have been told.
I suspect if you can wait 3 months any investment in oil shares now will give you a 30% or more return. In fact next week with the OPEC meeting and PMO's results maybe 30% within 2 weeks?
All IMHO.
Not to dampen your enthusiasm EC, as I often fly the bull case more than most , but the demand side looks like it has dropped off a cliff and plenty of oil traders seem to have gone into selling over drive (again not seen people with such bearish conviction since Lehman’s ). Jet Fuel demand was apparently only worse during the recession. China now full to the brim with products, as storage filling, so tea pots (not so tea pot these days) have stopped buying crude. OPEC will try their best next week but I think this will take a lot longer to ‘normalise’ than myself and many others thought...and that’s before the rest of the world stops flying , driving and manufacturing. Let’s hope the US doesn’t go into lockdown. Time to buy shares in Netflix and pasta! This is more a reality check for me and not trading advice, as the market will bounce back from this eventually. pains me to see ARCM with a get out of jail free card....all imho...sorry but head over heart for me
Correction. Consumption, not production!
heir consumption of oil will be increasing towards what it was before. The outbreaks of the virus elsewhere pale into insignifiance at the moment, not affecting oil consumption at least yet as far as I can see. Libya, Iran and venezuela still producing little oil. OPEC plus meet next Thursday. Current price of Brent $53 which seems ok for now. We could see Brent back to $60 in say 3 weeks time. Only $7 off if you think about it. This virus effect is overdone IMHO.
All IMHO.
their consumption of oil will be increasing towards what it was before. The outbreaks of the virus elsewhere pale into insignifiance at the moment, not affecting oil production at least yet as far as I can see. Libya, Iran and venezuela still producing little oil. OPEC plus meet next Thursday. Current price of Brent $53 which seems ok for now. We could see Brent back to $60 in say 3 weeks time. Only $7 off if you think about it. This virus effect is overdone IMHO.
All IMHO.