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Your not alone ningaloo, I’m not into conspiracy theories, but like you thought sp would & should be much higher than now., but I do wonder what the hell is going on . Unfortunately oil is a dirty, unloved sector like big tobacco, even though we need more crude than ever before. Just be thankful we are not invested with Woodford.
The big one IMHO will be any news on Zama sale timescale and sales figure agreed if they have one.
Hopefully everything else will be to within previous guidance that won't spook the market and I don't see why there should be much in changes in the negative.
Anyway got to remain positive for tomorrow, alot riding on this.
Good luck all.
Think it’s pretty obvious which way this will go tomorrow based on previous updates, unless TD can give us a surprise.
Guidance of 75-80k should be easily reached and reaffirmed tomorrow. Can’t see a TLW like situation - they’re pretty reckless with production forecasts. OGA website does show a fairly considerable drop in Catcher production in August (down to slightly less than 60k from July’s 70k odd) but we know from MOL results that must have been temporary as they announced good performance from the asset in Q3.
So when Zama sale goes through we could be looking at a debt of 1.5billion.
I know a few on TLW board earlier today speculated that PMO results may have a similar impact tomorrow, but I don't think any of us envisage that.
I've no idea at what stage Trump/China stand off is at...I doubt Trump does either for that matter. Hopefully Oil will stay comfortably above $60.
I messed up on this one last year, I predicted 1.50 sp...but also that we'd reach £2 by the start of 2019. I certainly think we should be about £1 mark at the moment. But can't help but feel we're all just pawns in the game & we get swept along at the behest of shorters, MM's etc
Thanks folks for your knowledge. Good luck all tomorrow.
ninga
PMO debt should be $2.0 bn at FY - they are at $2.15bn 30th June having paid off $153m in H1. They are saying they will pay off $300m in the FY. I am a bit confused by this because I thought CAPEX was higher in H1, but I guess oil is lower in H2.
You’re right Ningaloo, 43% oil production for 2H 2019 hedged at 69 bucks, gas at 61p therm, basis last update. 2020 low 60s but hopefully they got some more away during the Saudi spike at a higher number.
With IMO 2020 round the corner high sulphur, viscose crudes (kraken is luckily lower sulphur) are struggling to find homes with hsfo demand through the floor as not enough ships have scrubbers fitted (although the low price of fuel may encourage more ships to install them) . Coking capacity also full. World doesn’t need any more of these types of crude although tlw are targeting a different reservoir on next drill. Poor trading from me today took me 6 tranches (knives) to break even over the session so far. The day traders all dropped out at 150 so worst should be over....
Production upgrade for PMO tomorrow with current Catcher performance (or at least top end of their conservative range) or was maintenance enough to keep the forecasts in line? The hedging program has certainly worked so hopefully still aiming for the upper band of debt reduction as well.
Good Luck all tomorrow
Chart bounced off the 200 day MA with decent candle so far today
As you say Ningaloo, good hedging for 2nd Half, although it is for only 40% of production, remainder at prevailing rates each month. Still, better than present prices so all good. Lets hope they hedged some for 2020 when the spike happened up to $70 on the Saudi Attack. Wish the time machine could take me to end of 2020, see where we would be at. LOL
From PMO = "Over 40% of 2019 2H oil production hedged at US$69/bbl"
p.s. good to see PMO SP recover, ........wish the shorters would just move to Tullow now
I think we hedged production at $70 over 2019. I'm not sure what TLW have hedged at. So as you say Dodger sp shouldn't be affected by this.
TLW debt 2.8 billion, compared to PMO 2.3 (est)
Yes - the fourth negative from their RNS:
1. Quality - Catcher oil sells at a premium to Brent.
2. Production
3. they mentioned oil prices impact - I think this hasn't affect the SP - market builds that in every day!
4. Debt - near 3 bn.
I think TLW has problems which hopefully we won't have with Sea Lion.
The TLW problem is QUALITY not QUANTITY.
"In Guyana, samples from well testing indicate that the oils recovered from both Jethro-1 and Joe-1 were heavy crudes, with high sulphur content."
"This is a salutary reminder that not all oil is made equal. Heavy and sulphurous crudes are expensive to refine and as a result attract bargain basement prices, that significantly undermines the commercial value of Tullow's Guyana assets - although the company hasn't given up hope of finding more profitable oil elsewhere in the basin," he said.
TR61 - I just don't need TLW situations. People that go after it will win some and lose so badly on others.
Look at the board - Mrd, dbno - tells you everything you need to know.
Dodger, agree, these large drops i.e. Tullow , can quickly recover the same day or next, but also they can continue for weeks, so I try and take the risk out by losing the opportunity of any gains but at same time don't get drawn into following a drop down and being locked in with losses for a long time. I am sure it will bounce, (153.70 - 25.45% as i write but then again, no guarantee !
PMO have got this Zama sale, which is sure to add good value to SP and de-risk PMO, which will be only way of getting shorters off the back. As long as TD does not go spending again, should see good increases over 6 months and to end of 2020.
TR - PMO debt is $800m less than TLW now - and as you say PMO has chance to get a decent drop with Zama.
Its a complete guess what it does to the SP. We lose an asset - so you have to hope the market never priced in any future returns. The most important thing to me is the health check - investors don't like too high a multiple on EBITDA to debt. PMO was over 3. We could be heading to less than 2.
If Tullow producing 87k barrels a day and PMO forecast 75k to 80k both similar debt (slightly different assets, personally prefer N.Sea) , PMO looks very undervalued at 84p versus 157p still. (or Tullow still overvalued)
Zama should produce $200m to $500m (analysts say around $400m) on the sale to come off the debt, so should mean a good few pence (min 20p- 30p would have thought) added on SP, as market cap now only 698 million.
Is there anyone else here can work out more accurately what say $400m debt off would add onto SP ?
I won't buy TLW, you go chasing s h i t and you will find yourself covered in it at some point.
I can recommend a good home for the GS and MS shorting society that will be far more lucrative than PMO.
Good buy - i was hoping to poke my nose back in if it dipped below 80 - may have missed it but lets see when US opens
Yes D16 a few on TLW would like a lower entry point back into here after that hit so are spouting excrement.
heardy - just had a quick read on tlw - I see there are posters on their board saying pmo may do same tomorrow.
They must think pmo has production issues and operates in high risk areas of the globe also.
I do wonder what oil would be now if Donald sorted his trade war. Happy to hold here though, unlike tlw there is the chance of one-off good news landing any day. Would rather risk a 10% drop on a trading update than be out now. I went in big this morning.
TLW dividend was very premature, just a bit of fuel for the gravy train which is now looking like its approaching the terminus. Irish and Africa a barge pole ain't long enough.
Speaking to people pretty familiar with the subject this morning, I don’t think Tullow are heading in the right direction to turn the ship around. Investors should have taken more heed of partners who advised considerably lower production from Ghana this year who are much better respected in the industry. Hope for you guys buying in this morning that it bounces, but I personally still think it’s several hundred million overvalued.
Let’s hope PMO’s update tomorrow is the opposite of Tullow’s today!
Cash, i bought here. At 82.5
Good sell Dodger - time to buy back maybe ?
TLW looking cheap? wait until one African op goes tits up and you'll be able to get them for less than ENQ.