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Q1 was very positive & CMCX have recently announced strong trading so I have increased mu holding today in anticipation of a decent H1 update in the near future & the likelihood of a further buy back scheme to be announced with Interims
Current low is lower than the previous one. Probably due to my recent purchase. Not a good sign as usual.
?? cheers, I didn’t notice that
Hoping the next buyback strategy is more aggressive at the mid year results. At these prices and with cash on hand I believe it makes sense to buyback shares rather than increase dividend.
...which is 11% down on the 2018 share count
Bruce55 - yes- clearly stated in 2 June RNS that this $25m buyback has been effected. 101.335m shares now.
Any idea why the share buyback has been paused? No mention of it having ended.
Yes, profit_thirst, I follow your thinking. One of the issues is that it's not simple for outsiders to know what a "normal" quarter looks like in terms of ARPU or revenue. My expectations are based on c. $1000 quarterly ARPU pre the ASIC impact, and on 35k new customers a quarter, with a slightly higher rate of lost/ retiring customers per quarter, such that the quarterly active users declines gently through 2022. Even on that set of cautious assumptions I'd be at 220p of 2022 EPS.
Agree completely and I would also add that the narrative you describe fails to recognise the writing on the wall when it comes to how long this period of volatility is going to last.
IC supply crisis, container freight rates through the roof, asset prices of all kinds all over the place, inflation and sovereign debt worries ... I expect a prolonged period volatility moving well into next year and beyond. The shockwaves of this pandemic are going to be ripping through different sectors in turn for several years. My view is that plus500 will capitalise on this, providing their customers with no shortage of trading opportunities. The result being a prolonged period of good results.
Yes, thanks, that is the consensus I was referring to; that of 21 May. Canaccord has since published numbers, which will be part of the share price coming back a bit.
Note that the Liberum 2022 EPS is 201c/143p.
The narrative at this sort of a point with Plus500 is always the same "they have lots of low end customers who churn quickly and the business will go back to making a pound a share". This fails to understand the business from a return on marketing investment perspective, because those saying such drivel haven't done the work.
Hi simple, not sure if you’ve seen the latest updates consensus forecasts on the Plus500 website. Think 2022 has now come up slightly
https://www.plus500.com/Investors/ConsensusForecasts
Will, you do, of course, ask the right question. The company has never set future growth targets, and has always flattened the out year expectations. You might think this makes sense because volatility comes and goes, but that's not how the business works, since the high newsflow and volatility allowed the investment of a much higher marketing sum, more than twice that of 2019, and that continues to drive this year and 2022.
The market expects this to make $250m EBITDA this year. After Q2 it should be obvious that will be more like my $480m number. The company is likely however to come out with a lowball FY number in the Liberum note, thinking that any single quarter can be weak because of CTP.
Numbers will not, therefore, go from the current 159p of consensus earnings to the 228p which I have, but they could easily go to 180-190p, and I'd expect the stock to trade to 10x that number
The anchor on the stock will remain the 135p expectation for 2022 earnings. There are analyst notes out there on IG which point to possible blue sky upsides for IG if volatility persists. Some people get it, and understand that they are quite possibly fading earnings too quickly. In my case I have gently declining quarterly customer numbers through 2022, and still get to $620m revenues, $350m ebitda and 220p earnings. I have a 12% tax rate.
If this stock had better coverage, and proper communication of longer-term goals, then it would be > 2000p.
I second that- its nice to have insightful conversation/discussion. I don't want to read a play by play of someones trades, i doubt anyone else here does either.
We don’t need these kind of updates on how many shares you currently hold and at what costs. Terrible habit please stop!!
Thanks, ST. I had recently sold down to 14,000 (yesterday sold at £15.80 and 15.85). I have just bought back 2,650 in the £15.20's.
If half year EBITDA meets full year consensus estimates what do you think the share price action could be and what do you believe is a fair value for the company.
Thanks Simplethesis
Hello all. The company will make its own calculations about how it communicates. One would hope that before too long they will do quarterly conference calls. The call a couple of days ago was in addition to the normal quarterly communications.
The call covered a lot of aspects. It didn't change my opinion on the company or the equity. The broking business will launch soon, gradually. Note that it will be advertised to the installed base, not just to active users. It will be both incremental revenues and an important extra funnel. Broking can be marketed in places CFDs cannot. It matters for brand. It will be called Plus500 Invest.
Development cost for the new US platform is included in the announced $50m R&D spend. We need to think of marketing spend there, and capital requirements, both ramping up alongside the revenues. The company sees US futures trading platforms as complicated and user-unfriendly, hence ripe for the Plus500 treatment, as it did to CFD trading a decade ago.
Clear intention to communicate the company to non-UK investors. New Non-Execs helping with this.
All the above is great, but the share price driver will be that it won't get to the end of June without hitting full year profits, in my opinion. Note that company-collected consensus is now $250m EBITDA for this year, or only $128m more than they earned in Q1.
It's liberium lead not plus lead. I don't see the problem?
You and I could host our own conference call it doesn't mean we have to invite simpleThesis (but I probably would invite simpleT to share his thoughts)
Valuation - what "day and age" are you referring to ... the current one of rampant crony capitalism, with more opportunities than ever before for criminals to commit scams and for insiders to lobby for favours with little consequence
In this day and age, to exclude private investors from listening to a discussion about the quarters results, is unacceptable.
Info/responses to questions should be available to all at the same time.
SimpleT, did you listen in? Any highlights?
Thank you.
It's a Liberum-hosted call for institutional investors, explained as being part of the service that Liberum offers its clients. It is nonetheless notable to me that they haven't done such a call before.
I do expect the company to be very close to the full year ebitda number.
I’ve not seen the announcement of conference call on 25th May anywhere, if anyone could share it would be great.
If there is a meeting I see the most likely topic as updating their guidance for the current financial year to trading ahead.
Timing would make sense because if, as expected, they are having a strong quarter, together with potential strong trading performance following recent corrections, then they are presumably nearing their forecasted totals for the year (which would force an update to shareholders).