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Consensus forecasts updated today:
2021 outlook raised
2022/2023 all metrics trimmed from where they were (rev, ebitda, ebitda %, eps)
Concern from analysts over the recent press seems like the only possible reason for such a downgrade?
I saw that on 9 Sept, the forecasts were updated on the plus500 Investor Relations pages as follows:
2021: 556M Revenue, 278M Ebitda
2022: 574M Revenue, 291M Ebitda
2023: 596M Revenue, 301M Ebitda
Interested to hear what people think about these updated forecasts? And of the 7.xx PE ratio shares are currently trading at?
I agree that it is probably the share buyback ending, losing the support level it had. The timing would make sense.
I personally think that trading performance for the quarter will be good (if anything). Lots of very popular instruments have been crushed during Q2 2021.
Also not worried about VIX. Volatility is clearly still well above that of ‘normal times’ (by VIX or any other measure), and expect it to remain so, as the shockwaves from COVID are still rattling through the global economy.
I expect PLUS to beat consensus this year, 2022, and 2023. How the share price adjusts through this period is another question.
Agree completely and I would also add that the narrative you describe fails to recognise the writing on the wall when it comes to how long this period of volatility is going to last.
IC supply crisis, container freight rates through the roof, asset prices of all kinds all over the place, inflation and sovereign debt worries ... I expect a prolonged period volatility moving well into next year and beyond. The shockwaves of this pandemic are going to be ripping through different sectors in turn for several years. My view is that plus500 will capitalise on this, providing their customers with no shortage of trading opportunities. The result being a prolonged period of good results.
We don’t need these kind of updates on how many shares you currently hold and at what costs. Terrible habit please stop!!
I’ve not seen the announcement of conference call on 25th May anywhere, if anyone could share it would be great.
If there is a meeting I see the most likely topic as updating their guidance for the current financial year to trading ahead.
Timing would make sense because if, as expected, they are having a strong quarter, together with potential strong trading performance following recent corrections, then they are presumably nearing their forecasted totals for the year (which would force an update to shareholders).
We are not reliant on that at all.
Trading performance fluctuates up and down and is immaterial over time. Plus make their money from spreads and overnight charges just like CMC and IGG.
Trading performance fluctuates up and down distorting the figures which is why it is *harder to understand*, and this is also why management use customer income rather than the reported revenue, as their main KPI.
Apologies but you didn’t seem to grasp this in either your first, or your latest message. You just seem to want to express your confirmation bias about your feelings towards IG.
Impressed with todays update. I don’t see how there can be any kind of sell off on this.
I got the below update from research tree, although the 7% seems light to me.
Liberum:
Following a positive EGM statement on 16 March, today’s 1Q21 trading update highlights a record quarter for the number of active customers with a further 89k new customers at attractive ARPU and AUAC. This has resulted in revenues more than doubling QoQ to $203m, helped by lower customer trading losses, with EBITDA up six-fold to $121.7m. The performance is a testament to the strength of Plus500’s technology and has been achieved as the group continues to manage high platform volumes and further drives towards its goal to be a multi-asset fintech group from solely being focused on CFDs. We increase our FY21 and FY22 EPS by 7% to reflect the strong performance resulting in the shares trading on just 9.8x CY21 PE. We believe that the benefits of the group’s scalable proprietary technology and marketing algorithms are not reflected in the share price. Hence, we reiterate our BUY rating and increase our TP to 2090p from 1945p.
The shape of the graph has no bearing on the company and what shares in it are worth. Plus is a great company whether the graph is shaped like a cup, a horseshoe, or a ****.
Nice to see some momentum though as we head into next weeks trading update. I think and hope that the trading is good enough to persuade analysts to increase their forecasts, and also hoping to get more updates on product diversification plans.
I think your 0.5B-1B is a bit optimistic, but yes in that scenario I could easily picture us gaining 0.1B to 0.5B in trading over the course of a year. With some quarters substantial and others less so. Big wins have happened in individual quarters several times before e.g. in 2018 and 2020. The chances of multiple, massive, consecutive trading gains each quarter (which would be needed to get to your figure) would be very low IMO. Particularly because book wins will shrink the size of the book for the next quarter as customers lose and/or withdraw funds.
Would be interested to know where the book sits this quarter. Yesterday was an absolute bloodbath.
Nothing new here, just more confirmation of the massive influx of retail investors. According to the article +30% on the numbers seen during March/April 2020. Roll on Wednesday and the other trading updates/results we will have for H1 2021. Our company is surely making a killing, irrespective of trading performance, and it’s seemingly flying totally under the radar. Happy to be heavily invested, at some point the earnings and dividends will become too good to ignore, and in the meantime we get to enjoy them for cheap.https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/02/13/why-retail-investors-are-here-to-stay.html
Feb 17th
Can’t help but think plus 500 must be doing really well right now. They are surely onboarding loads of customers, and maybe more importantly I feel there will be significant numbers of last years new customers sticking around due to wins they have made and the ongoing volatility. The general population and news have been thoroughly penetrated now by stock market and cryptocurrency news and stories of people making money from home.
Add to that the prospect of continued volatility deep into this year, 2021 starts to sound like quite a solid year for PLUS ... maybe even close to 2020 levels?
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=plus500
Can someone enlighten me on where, how to access, and what time the FY 2020 update will take place?
Thanks