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yellowf1 - Thank you for your 19.06 post of yesterday I note that you have moved from saying it is not financially viable to questioning the amount of electricity that it can produce. I observe that while you are willing to accept PHE's CAPEX figure you are not willing to accept the power outtage figure from them. With all due respect to you I am willing to accept the figures from the company on power generation.
You clearly have previous experience in this type of "concept to completion" type of project.
I suspect the majority of happy clappers on this BB just want to talk up the price and exit long before the pains of having to do all the work you detailed.
I am concerned about the arrangement with w2t and how much will have to be given away in that agreement.
From their website I cannot see any track record of projects completed to date, that is worrying.
To me w2t are merely acting as a broker and add very little, in hindsight PHE should have sourced there own investors.
The real danger I see is the money running out before the process can be commercialised.
I know the CEO says he is selling power from the Chester Uni demo plant, but in 2018 admin costs alone were £2.5M.
They introduced costs reduction of 25% for 2019, but thats still £1.87M to find, in MHO not possible.
Future raises at <0.4p and further dilutions will leave the float at >2BN shares.
This is a high risk investment, investors should be aware of that.
I think inthe longer term, it is aim to sell hydrogen and generate higher profit.
For now i see w2t is try to build a snow case site., to prove dmg works via electricity generation. In the site layout, there is a little area at north east corner demarked with fence and noted future hydrogen development (something like that, cant remember the exact content).
To me the key is to the 12 months (8000hours ) operation to prove 25tpd dmg that scale up from 5tpd is working with no bugs. However, not everyone on this bb willing to accept or face any reality.
Lots to do, on the surface:
-Find investors to invest w2t to build FOK waste to hydrogen plant, is this 7million?
-Find a right epc contractor to build the 1st site,
-PHE to manufacture or build 25tpd unit,
-only after 8000 problem free operationhours will attract many customers, as i said in my previous posts, 2 years from now. 2021 summer.
Great job, stokey12.
However not wanting to be pedantic, but these type of plants do have large parasitic power loadings.
From conveyors and tyre recycling equipment that separate the wire content in tyres, and tyre shredding for processing.
You either use your output power for that load or buy from the grid, in either case its an OPEX cost.
Its simply impossible to generate 56MW of power from 25TPD of fuel.
I would suggest the projected(as at this time its all theory, based on a small R&D plant)output is 28MW/day or 1.16MW nameplate capacity.
That would generate 9505MWhrs/year, based on 93% availability(industry norm for this type of generation)
@£60MW.=£570.3k-parasitic load-running costs.
The other inputs and outputs are just as speculative.
2 years from now, when the equipment has been installed and running for 12 months, and all the initial bugs ironed out.
Only then will you know the actual quarterly/yearly longer term operational performance.
GLTA who invest before then, the road will be long with numerous setbacks.
PHE is not on the short list, it hasnot been shorted,, so that assumption is incorrect.
Hi curiouser, your post did make me smile. I just filtered straight away as I don't have the time or the inclination to read the tosh that bashers write on here. I do hope that no holders sell up based on reading the cryptic negativity. glah
yellowf1 - My calculation gives a gross return of 18.76% on a CAPEX of £10m. On a CAPEX of £7m then the gross return is 26.80. You will of course that these figures are all based on a power only unit.
yelowf1 - Thank you for your 14.06 post. If the return was 3% gross would agree with you. The figure I quoted was only the license fee to PHE not the gross revenue received by the site owner which is £1,876,000. This is based on a gate fee of £80 and a payment for the power generated at £60/MWh. As this is a power only it would generate around 56MW/h.
Shorting, CFDs, or just trying to get the share price down to buy cheap.. whatever
Short dismissal or the north west economy as but one example of the hydrogen economy which is currently growing exponentially in Japan, Germany and Australia . No response to the safety reply.....
Your posts and history are all in public domain, it took me 2 clicks to find your posts.
Please ask your broker if you can lend out your shares from a 0.4p stock.
That is the principal of shorting.
Be so kind as to post on this BB their response.
Thanks for your articulate response.
My point being nobody will finance a project that only returns 3% gross.
It doesn't matter that PHE isn't actually providing finance.
Therefore there won't be any 20% licensing fees paid.
The CAPEX figure came from CEO's own interview, even at a lower figure of £7M mentioned it still doesn't work.
Well yelloff1 you clearly don't think hydrogen is safe - even though it is evidenced as safer than petrol stored at petrol stations see e.g. the link below. Nor do you think that the hydrogen economy, or more specifically PHE, is viable. Logically it does beg the question why on earth are you wasting your time on here and even worse, going through my old posts to make a point then? Why would anyone waste their valuable life/time posting/researching about something they clearly believed was not viable. Unless … ah of course! you're shorting!
yellowf1- Thank you for your post of 13.35 I always like an inteligent response from somebody who has fully mastered their brief. But I will take your reply instead. You seem to be making a fundamental error in assuming that PHE will be paying for the DMG unit. If you listen very carefully to the last interview that David Ryan gave to Proactive the link is on a earlier tweet it is clear that the customer or the development partner will be raising the finance, with possible assistance from PHE. So the costs that you mention are not being borne by PHE the figure I quoted is the 20% license fee that PHE will be receiving. It follows that there is no CAPEX payable by PHE. On the plant point I know this has exercised 98889 as well I do not believe that there will be any plant owned by PHE as I suspect that the DMG unit will be constructed in situ at the customers site. The reasons for believing this are:
1. From the statements made it would seem that the units will not be mass produced as the units have to be calibrated for the feedstock being used. See in this respect Piltick's post of 22.50 of Monday.
2. The parts are all, or mainly, off the shelf items so can just as easily be sent to the customer as to PHE.
Please note it is a DMg unit and not a DME unit that you have been refering to in your recent posts.
So annual revenue of £300,000 from CAPEX of £10M makes commercial sense?.
3% gross return.
Factor in plant running costs, costs of finance.
That is not a viable business.
You can get 6%PA from BP dividends.
Yellowf1 - The answer to your question is yes. It would be viable on the sale of power only this would provide a revenue in the region of £300,000 pa for each UK based DMG unit. You wil recall that initially DMG units wil be power only units.
From your own post on Jun 13th 2019 on another BB.
"Saturday 1st June an explosion at the Air Products hydrogen processing facility in Santa Clara causing refuelling problems
Monday June 10, an explosion takes place at the hydrogen refuelling station near Oslo, Norway causing refuelling problems.
Both explosions under investigation. Causes currently unknown. Could this be sabotage?!?!".
These cases highlight what i mentioned about the dangers of Hydrogen Storage&Transportation.
A few example cases from the NW of England does not constitute an International market for hydrogen.
Without the sale of hydrogen from DME process, (in areas where hydrogen isn't required), is it still commercially viable?.
Hydrogen - is becoming the fuel choice of the future for home heating, HGVs and trains. Cars are interesting but not the main focus right now.
… but who need hydrogen? Well these North West locals for starters!
That sticky goo you refer to(carbon black) sells for 1,200Euros/MT in its refined state.
Given that Carbon Black is 36% of the output process, it is significant revenue.
DME is being portrayed as a solution to plastics disposal, but there are many other already successful and operating installations of alternative and cheaper technology out there.
Albeit without hydrogen output, but who needs hydrogen?.
How many hydrogen cars do you actually see on the roads here?.
Hydrogen is a difficult and dangerous chemical to store and transport, that is why most countries don't believe it is a viable alternative for cars.
I think the point is that the DMG process doesn't produce oil or tar or sticky goo, but a syngas with a high percentage of hydrogen.
Simples - just use the filter button.
This type of pyrolysis equipment is already installed in many locations.
Incinerating rubber and plastics and creating oil and carbon black, and in some cases generating electricity also.
Maybe someone can explain why DME has a benefit other than producing hydrogen?.
Not all countries believe that hydrogen transportation is any improvement on EV's.
so there is no IP at this moment, with logical reason or not. why this need to be a conspiracy theorist? are you not willing to discuss or let anyone know the fact that there is currently no IP
Yes but do you really think there isn't a logical reason? Are you a conspiracy theorist? If you are genuinely concerned contract David Ryan. This really is not an issue as far as I'm concerned.
Last minute or not, is another story. at the moment, PHE has not got an IP, so “The research and technology development IP is protected within the chemical engineering models and control systems of the process ….” is kind of misleading.