The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Fair but of stock changing hands but not much in the way of notifications as yet, good to see Chairman joining in with a market purchase too.
Whilst its a set back, perhaps not a disaster that the drop in share price suggests. Many of these things are outside of managements control such as registrations, even if delayed by a month or two it may mean missing the growing season for that year.
It's a vote of confidence for the Non Exec Director to purchase 500k shares. I realise it's only c. £18k worth but should allay fears of an impending raise and any other issues lurking
Had it on my watchlist for a while. Looks crazy cheap now! ATB
Make that 10% of the issued shares traded we should see more than one TR1 notification, also of interest is where the shares have ended up.
Ospraie more than likely will have some idea already of the downturn/destocking issue, rather than being company specific, could be contenders.
Should've just said reduced YOY growth from 60% or so to 40%, reads better than 28% down......bare in mind this is for FY24
Think they should just about be ok for B/E without a raise next year and with more deals etc to be signed up could still change the landscape
Absurd value here for a highly scalable market leading product where $30m have been spent on....broker ratings at still at 42p so says it all tbh
On a better day in a few years time this gets taken over for £1+
All IMO
Given the sp was already "in the gutter" before this bad news update, maybe a listing in the AIM market is the wrong place to be. This sp suggests a company with no future , nothing of value to bring "to market" and dangerous cash issues. Or is that a reasonable description of the condition of the company ?
Around 8% of the issued share cap traded, should see some movement notifications TR1's
Absurd drop here, still growth (albeit less) year on year, a lot would've been priced in already in the drop from 9p placing a few months ago.....expecting a recovery to the 5s when they're done
There's a reason the broker target only cut from 44p to 42p..... 11 bagger from here
All IMO
Greedy when others fearful.
Didn’t touch the SP though.
13.2 M share buy
Interesting
Removing listing fees at this level makes even more sense. Paying out circ *£450k per year is such a drain on resources and much better spent on the business itself imo.
I suspect the main hurdle for a merger is the share price, many large investors are in higher up 100p mark or higher, entertaining a low offer may prove unpalatable.
*see SPO RNS for approximate costings
Makes you wonder why Scobie Dickinson Ward was increasing their holding in recent months...............surely they would have knowledge of this?
The bigger concern is the impact on 2024 and whether we will need to raise additional capital.
In addition, regulatory delays in India and a number of other countries have resulted in delays to some product launches; whilst this is expected to have a limited impact on the Company in FY23, this is likely to affect performance more materially in FY24.
Revenue in FY24 is now anticipated to be approximately 28% lower than market expectations of $23m, due to lower levels of inventory being maintained by the Company's distributors and regulatory delays in some territories. The Board intends to review operating expenses accordingly.
Very disappointing to read............I know the targets were ambitious but the SP decimation is painful and a grey cloud will hang over until they clarify the impact on future cash position. Raising funds at this level would be a disaster
Headwinds in the agro sector this year are well known. Compared to many companies, PHC are fairing well, but not immune to the economic and regulatory slowdown. It’s our turn to manage expectations with a downgrade. It’s painful, but on the plus side we have a good business model, good products that sell, and an amazing management team.
It is almost certain that we will get the regulatory approvals we need to move forwards in Poland, Brazil, Mexico, US and (importantly) India - it will just take a bit longer.
Furthermore, it seems that the Fed and BoE are nearing a cut in interest rates easing pressure on farmers.
30% down is an unfair reflection of the progress made by PHC - and so I shall grab my ‘Black Friday’ stake and wait patiently.
This was my post from a week or so ago, has some useful figured for comparison, f/y 2022 revenue came in at $11,767 so if we assume modest growth round up 2023 to $12m.
Share price at 3.5p puts market cap under £12m GBP
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What are investors thoughts on H2 this year Sept IMC Q & A session was interesting, Jeff's sounded pretty confident when quizzed on figure need to for f/y.
H1 $5.6m which equated to 1% increase on 2022 H1, this leaves a whopping $10.3m for H2 to achieve f/y $15.9m guidance.
H2 - 2022 came in at $6.3m so adopting a more cautious approach I would suggest in the region of $8m is more realistic, therefore f/y 2023 would come in at $13.6m.
Even if they roll over some of the revenue into 2024 it would still equate to a very reasonable 15% growth on 2022 numbers.
I thought H2 figures were unlikely but not such a haircut, especially alter managements upbeat investor presentation in Sept.
It really needs someone with clout and reach to takeover, economies of scale are key here.
I think we were expecting this and it's more than priced in now.
Against the sector a flat performance in 2023 is very good.
Next year is still forecast to grow about 40% to $16.5m.
They should still easily have enough cash to get to breakeven. I think 2024 as a whole will be close to breakeven and I think H2 2024 will be cashflow positive.
Still good value at these levels.
Profit warning, get out, trying put it nicely lol
Revenue in FY24 is now anticipated to be approximately 28% lower than market expectations of $23m, due to lower levels of inventory being maintained by the Company's distributors and regulatory delays in some territories. The Board intends to review operating expenses accordingly.... Revenue in FY24 is now anticipated to be approximately 28% lower than market expectations of $23m, due to lower levels of inventory being maintained by the Company's distributors and regulatory delays in some territories. The Board intends to review operating expenses accordingly.
Terrible news
Spent some time going through the archives looking at possible valuation models, Wilbur-Ellis agreement stands out as it includes figures for PREtec:
Nov 20
"This agreement represents an important validation of the commercial value of PREtec as we move to the first product launches. After more than six years and over $20m invested, the benefits of PREtec peptide products will soon be widely available to growers in the U.S. and elsewhere.”
May 23 annual report
"The Company has invested $30 million in its exciting new technology, the PREtec platform"
In the three years they have been working together PHC spent another $10m, yet todays market cap sits at just under £20m.
From the above link:
"Wilbur-Ellis has been working with our Employ brand (Harpin αβ) for many years and has significantly increased sales since being appointed exclusive distributor for U.S. specialty crops in 2019. They are the ideal partner for us to work with to develop a series of PREtec products in U.S. specialty crops over the coming years"
That was three years ago, since then the relationship has developed further.
Harvesting innovation: 5 companies cultivating a greener future with AgriTech
..........
Plant Health Care (PHC), makes peptides derived from natural proteins derived from plants to help farmers protect their crops - as it describes them "vaccines for plants". At present, pesticides, made up of harmful chemicals, can have a negative impact on the environment. The main environmental concerns related to pesticides are soil, water, or air pollution. In addition, the effects of exposure to pesticides on humans is a continuing concern. Exposure of the general population to pesticides occurs primarily through eating food and drinking water contaminated with pesticide residues, which has been linked to cancer, effects on reproduction, as well as adverse effects on the immune and nervous system.
Plant Health Care’s commercial business is driven by sales of Harpinαβ, a protein that acts as a powerful biostimulant, promoting the yield and quality of crops. During the first half of 2023, the Group continued to see the accelerated adoption of Harpinαß in Brazil as sales to sugar processors increased. Harpin revenue in South America and Mexico increased but fell in North America. This meant overall Harpin𝜶β revenue decreased by 15% to $2.8 million, due to severe drought in the Midwest and delayed purchases by growers.
In the first half of 2023, overall revenue edged up by 1% to $5.6 million from $5.5 million in H1 2022. Brazil saw a 48% revenue increase, however, US sales fell by 56%, leading to depleted inventories within the channel. This decline hints at promising sales anticipated for the latter half of 2023. As of June 30, 2023, the available cash stood at $5.7 million.
https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/harvesting-innovation-5-companies-cultivating-a-greener-future-with-agritech--d46884f/
IMO Wilbur-Ellis are waiting for PHC949 approvals in the US before considering a TO.
However, the cinical side of me wonders if the SP is purposefully being sold down in order for 'someone' to make a lowball offer. It gives the impression that the company is unhealthy in some way, but I think we all know that's b*****ks.
PHC have established a global distribution chain which includes selling Pretec on three continents very quickly. We're capable of profits in the next year or so and the SP will react accordingly. Think we're capable of going it alone.
Cavallo Ventures, VC arm of Wilbur Ellis
https://www.cavallovc.com/
Plant Healthcare is nearing profitability after a very long period of investment, often a time of most distress for established holders who simply run out of patience.
The prospect of PE making an approach has to be high, following thoughts below:
a) Significant amount of funds and time spent on research makes PHC attractive for competitors to get ahead
b} Economies of scale, larger group can successfully leverage PHC's proprietary technology faster
c) Long term partners such as Wilbur-Ellis have venture capital arms already in place
d) circ 40% of the shares are held by hedge fund type companies in particular Ospraie Management (17%) with well established ag connections.
e) Current UK market conditions are favourable as seen with HTC and many other takeovers this year.
f) Big part of PHC's business in in America
g) Removal of listing overheads would take PHC to breakeven
It just seems the obvious thing to do, especially given US takeover frenzy at the moment
I think it’s j******@planthealthcare.com
You know what the stars are.