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My current feeling of my holding here is very sorta hmmmmmm !
I prefer to obviously have strong positive feelings going forward on any stock, or to have a fear of a tumble (but the potential for a good spurt up to still exist).
To have this feeling of treading water with no great potential to rise or fall has me a little bored to be honest. I need to give this stock some thought and would welcome any thoughts from equally frustrated investors.
Tullow shares are up nearly 70% from the lows of May. Pharos shares fundamentally flat…..and yet they are in the same business, with a similar mix of exploration upside and current production.
There is no doubt the dollar payment issues in Egypt have been a drag on performance here - but that effect seems to be being worked through as conditions ease. A material rerating seems likely over the next six months as plans firm up for 125.
Brent price now back at nearly $88……up from a low of $74 over the summer.
No impact on the share price - though I do notice a slight uptick in the rate of share buybacks.
The game changer will be when we get the RNS of the farminee on 125/6. We will then get more detail on the drilling plans and, potentially, a further resource update.
Well I believe that the house broker has a price target of 55p. PHAR is also trades below NAV but has been for a while. A re-rate is required!
It would be interesting to know what other long term holders on the board are thinking regarding where the share price could go on this over the next couple of years. I originally bought in under the Soco name and have been well under water for a very long time now. Progress has been treacle slow but I am still here. Does anyone think we will get above 45p in the next two years?
….typo….3U not 3P…..but the point holds.
BLIMEY:
“ An independent assessment by ERCE for Block 125 confirms a range of gross unrisked prospective oil resources of between 1,178 MMstb (1U) and 29,785 MMstb (3U) with a Mean value of 13,328 MMstb for the Prospects in the North West area of Block 125 currently covered fully or partially by 3D seismic. These resources do not include Leads already identified in Blocks 125 & 126 but not yet covered by 3D seismic”
Obviously OIP numbers need a big discount and risking, but those are some pretty impressive mean/3P numbers……especially as they only cover the area over which 3D has already been shot!
Also worth noting that an updated and rather interesting Corporate Presentation was slid out on 27th June. We’ll soon see what numbers can be attached to the pretty 125/6 pictures - and perhaps learn who is the drilling partner.
Last year July’s Trading and Ops update was on 20th July…..
….and we’ve been told “ In addition, an independent assessment by ERCE for Block 125 has commenced, evaluating prospect sizes with encouraging initial results. We look forward to update the market at the July Trading & Operations Update”
And only 5 weeks ago we had news of the licence extension on 125.
Not impossible that we get news tomorrow of a substantial prospective (multi-billion gross) resources update AND a farm-in agreement for drilling next year.
At the minimum, we should get a resources update by the end of next week.
Decks now cleared....
Decent buys today ..... hummm !!!
Pharos Energy goes ex-div next week on a 4.5% dividend payment.
Actus Advisors report last week target price 55p noting flow rate at new Vietnam well above expectations.
Solid results and sp should rise imv today.
Very strange trades here .... only 14 trades all day, with what appears to be 1.2m (£271k) sell early morning and 250k (£56k) late reported mid-point transaction too, we finished flat !
I see the market continues to let Madoff accumulate. Highest volume since early January - and I guess another holdings RNS approaching with 9%.
Must say that I admire his patience, which is clearly paying off - and will give him a meaningful position before the summer game-changer news. ????
I'm struggling to model/value Pharos properly. How much capex do you think they need in each of Vietnam and Egypt to maintain current/guided levels of production ( put another way, to actually extract their reserves not to add more reserves). Company seems to have been near silent on this, there are scraps in the old Auctus note but they are dated. Anyone care to share thoughts with me?
I hear the lies continue elsewhere.
Those who are aware of them should take very careful note of those who are spreading them, as they are clearly deranged obsessives.
Meanwhile, the Saudi cut is quite interesting. I suspect that there will be further cuts this year and that oil and gas investments will once again be “acceptable” - because if they aren’t very soon then we will face a proper energy crunch by 2030.
Yes there is. Preferred partner.
Hi EE. I think you're probably way more up to speed on PHAR than I am and trying to reacquaint myself. I see pretty much the same assets as old SIA. Is there a farm-out process in place as far as you know for Blk 125 or still reinterpreting the 3D ? Just trying to get an idea of possible time lines.
Now over 8%.
Undoubtedly making his views clear to management, hence the comments about 9% yields and potentially trading assets.
He has a very nicely leveraged position for the newsflow from the next 18 months. The only surprise to me is that he seems to have had no trouble building it.
I’d say today’s presentation largely confirms this. I’d guess that 125 may soon have prospects totalling c.5bn bbl of potential prospective resources.
Note that the licence extension sounds likely to come over the summer, and a farm-in partner may well be confirmed at the same time? Should trigger something of a rerating when that happens (though probably unlikely to happen before then?)
https://www.upstreamonline.com/politics/vietnam-improves-its-petroleum-law-in-bid-to-boost-oil-and-gas-fortunes/2-1-1424695
……very helpful timing
In case anyone bothers to read bulletin boards elsewhere, I was told last week that certain unscrupulous liars are putting it about that I’ve sold out here.
I haven’t.
I still have substantially all the shares I had ten years ago. Plainly I would have done better to sell out much more than the 5% I did in 2013……or indeed even in 2015/16/17 etc. But I didn’t.
I’ll be interested to see the interpretation of 125 and look forward to that being partnered and drilled in the next year or - at which point I expect to see the share price materially higher (albeit nowhere near the all-time highs).
The Pharos Board are masters at avoiding detail in their RNS's. Why not say what the target sizes of the exploration wells are? Why not say approximately how long they will take to drill each well? Is there a strategy / program to pay off the debt if so by when. The RNS is matter of fact and quite frankly bland. There is nothing to get the market excited about and consequently there is a slow tick down of the share price. Yes, the dividend should, in theory, get people interested in the share again but alone it is unlikely to spark a prolonged upward trend in the share price. The decline in the share price here has been nothing short of catastrophic since SOCO days (LTH I'm afraid!) and nothing short of a large exploration find is going to bring back the glory days. Investors need to know at least the right targets are being aimed at.
Interesting news….
https://www.investegate.co.uk/hurricane-energy-plc--hur-/rns/recommended-acquisition-of-hurricane-energy-plc/202303160741041988T/