The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Not idiots by any stretch, they are very adept at relieving us of our money
Looking at his CV, there is some very credible track record and I believe that he comes across an intelligent individual. I don't think this current point in time is the end all be all for the company but rather the beginning of a strategy they have implemented over time.
I think we need to look at the next 6 month and those will be very revealing. 2more reports. From here on out I think they will be in a much better place.
Unless you are right and I was blind to the fact that there is a bunch of highly qualified idiots, that don't know the first thing about business. I somehow doubt that.
"Not so sure about CEO. This man has incredible experience and credentials."
Really? What experience?
As far as I can see this is his first stab at being a CEO and share price has reliably tanked throughout his tenure, but credit where credit's due, he's good at selling jam tomorrow
You are right, I don't have transparency and it is unfair to call out who I think should stay or go. Its also unfounded. Its hard to say whose fault it was back when 1mio was left on the table due to an IFRS reporting issue. Its hardtop say whether debt was accumulated to this degree because selling assets was part of the strategy or just because the macro environment is challenging and revenues were not realised in the way it was expected. But to the outside it seems like sloppy handling of the Financials. So if this is something they want to address, then I am sure the investor community, certainly me, would perhaps gain more trust.
I am sell8ng another to put down here today as well. I think that we won't see the shares this cheap again.
I was wrong in the past so what do I know.....
Interesting how there is hardly any trade volume today. Maybe the big rotation of panickers and those who wanted out for whatever reasons (including a big seller) with those who seek trading opportunity or just believe in the business.
Done a small top-up myself yesterday. Right or wrong? Time will tell!
Rooster, I am on the same page as you overall - worth hanging in here!
I don't have enough info to assess if they should have sold ImmunoInsights instead, but the CEO is no fool, neither is the broader board or the big investors. Just check out who they are and their track record.
There is a problem with comms of numbers in particular + now I feel we need clear info on the forward strategy. Is there a CFO problem? Has the new chair not brought anything to the table? Lots of questions and I am sure we will get clarity going forward. All investors - small or large - should starting pushing for this. If some management changes are needed, so be it, but it's incredibly difficult for outsiders/small shareholders to really understand who the weakest links are, if any.
The reality is that most people can relate to a test business, whereas very few will understand what an IP / service business can do.
In my view this was the right move in terms of selling assets , albeit disappointing. The geopolitical circumstances starting with Covid made it very difficult to penetrate some of the markets they were eyeing up like China, Russia, Spain, South America etc. Especially when the business doesn't have boots on the ground, I can imagine complying with the regulatory environment either direct or through partners would have been difficult and coupled with lots of overheads. Tough grind that was for a business of ONC size. It makes sense to hand that to a company with global presence and focus on the services side which is highly lucrative especially at scale.
I am sticking with this one here becauae I think that we are not far off from seeing a decent/healthy balance sheet soon which will guaranteed turn the tide on this stock. Frustrating is that its taking longer. But I really believe we are at the cusp of a turning point. With the PI that ONC has today and the amount of top quality customers and Contracts that are being signed the foundations are there. Now it's just time to execute and be prepared for higher volumes coming through. The markets is huge and growing and ONC is a leader in the space. The asset sale seems to have been part of a strategy since July last year so its not something that was done on the whim. CFO in my view needs to go. Not so sure about CEO. This man has incredible experience and credentials that are solid and has always made a great impression when speaking in interviews. The company needs to communicate clearly to the investor community what can be expected here. And then deliver on it. At the moment it's all a bit fluffy and I cannot measure success against fluff.
WB, good luck with the other opportunities then!
The management needs to improve comms and clarify the strategy no doubt.
It may be as simple as "volume=vanity, profit=sanity".
ImmunoInsights clearly has high margin and with many opps for IP generation, licence deals etc. Most testing businesses end up having wafer thin margins over time. Becomes volume businesses.
The management team could probably have sold either of the two, so need to explain better.
Been watching this co from a distance for a while, looking to get into cancer and diagnostics still one of the biggest health tech areas. Couldn’t believe selling off the core assets of the business to focus on being a service business, really? Even if it works how valuable can it really become? Weak management team, calls for them to stand down/sacked are understandable and perhaps justified. Appear to be many better opportunities in the market currently.
Thanks Stargate,
I personally don't put much emphasis on chart reading for this type of company. It's early stage, IP driven, working towards profitability and market development. Fundamentals - successful growth or not - will drive this => RNS/news. Right now it could go up or down, semi randomly.
Either you believe they can make it or you don't.
The technical chart , shows a confirmed downtrend for 2 years , with lower peaks and troughs. More recent price break downwards, was occasioned by break of the historic sp, low of 35.5. A sp, making a new all time high is positive, but a sp, making a new all time low is not positive, for this equity. The current rise in the sp, would probably be described as a dead cat bounce .
Rooster, clearly some serious panic selling and investors taking losses!!
In really, lots of smaller transactions adding up to around 1.45 million shares if this site has accurate data. It's only around 2% of all shares as far as I can work out, but let's see today if this continues. I feel the big holders, indeed will hold, as the company moves forward with hope (but no guarantees obviously)
Let's hope indeed they have not lost faith. I noticed a change in the investor list recently. I wonder who has sold all their shares to dump the price by 50% today.....probably a large holder with small faith...
Grumpyfarmer, good post!
Wrt "why didn’t Freenome buy the whole business?".
In my view because it was not for sale and Freenome would not have offered what it would take (big gap). Why? The big holders have paid a lot more in than the recent share price, and will surely - assuming they are still confident about the future direction - be looking for a multiple, so I can assume it would only be for sale at very minimum 200 p. Even that would not impress the big holders. Most likely buyer going forward will be one of the top 10 pharma outfits. If the big holders lost faith, that's a very different situation.
Lampedusa, I do get your point but depends on how you read it. Can be read (inferred) as comparing H1 with previous H1 of the 15 months year ending Aug 2022 or as - which I think is your interpretation - the full 15 months year. The latter is clearly not the case, the gap is huge then. If they meant that, then it is a big issue, I agree. If the former, it can be explained by delayed invoicing (only just).
In any case, it's either sloppy comms or a straight lie. If a lie, it must surely have consequences ie removal of CEO and/or CFO. To be continued!!
I may actually write to the company, as I am not selling.
If you are selling tomorrow: good luck, I do understand your frustration.
This is the only reason I haven’t sold today. The new Freenome relationship is the most significant thing this company has achieved in the last 4 years since I have been invested here. The price for diagnostics was disappointing, but the ongoing relationship with services is highly significant. Freenome is a world leading player. They generate many thousands of samples in their diagnostic processes and have the potential to significantly scale beyond their minimum contract size with Oncimmune. At this price the antigen library alone is worth many times the current share price and I expect someone to notice that if the price stays around here for long. The big question, is why didn’t Freenome buy the whole business? Big holders have been patient, but will want to realise value and currently, the market cap (£13m) is the same as what they achieved for Diagnostics, which generated £1m of revenue. I expect to see management change and cost cutting and a clear path to value realisation in the near future. GLA
ONC continue to underwhelm. It is excuse after excuse here for abject performance.
That revenue number is shockingly bad imho.
I think Adam Hill needs to step down.
Sorry Dr
looks you don't get it . H1 ends in end of Feb , and they said on the 27th "first half FY2023 revenue ALREADY exceeding level for the 15 months to 31 August 2022"
this is not a forecast they stated a fact which turns out to be lie
Ps, Flova:
In fairness, the £13 million figure was a forward pipeline figure (expected), whereas the €3.5 million is actually contracted (firm). If you were confused, I am sure many others were and may well in part explain the massive panic sell off today.
From Feb update: "the pipeline for the ImmunoINSIGHTS service business stood at approximately £13M and was growing steadily at approximately £0.75M a month"
They could do with being a bit more crisp wrt how they talk numbers, the use of currency etc. Sloppy CFO? You may have a point, but for the board to consider. Also, don't forget the company has some serious anchor investors all hanging in there, presumably waiting for a trade/corporate sale, as there is no way they can sell on the normal open market.
I also agree wrt chairman, as hopes/expectations had been raised, so...would be good to see some tangible benefits and broad director buys; should by now be a no-brainer if they believe in the business!
Flova, I think you have some genuine and reasonable questions. Should probably be addressed to the company/board, as I doubt they are following these discussions on lse.
I can only assume any revenue from the sold business has been stripped out.
Lampedusa,
General slowdown/delays in the wider bioscience sector meaning contracted revenues are slipping into next 6 month period.
Costs will come out also, so hopefully it will comfortably be making a profit later this year or early 2024.
I feel they have a solid platform for growth now with the house in order, so I prefer to hang on to what I have and see how they get on. Once you sell, the upside will be gone unless one feels the company will crash and burn. Never say never, but I would be very surprised.
4 words:
Fibs, lies, porkie pies
Having looked further tonight, I have some thoughts. We were told earlier this year revenue for first 6 months was expected to exceed revenue generated in the 15 month period to Aug 31 and that we had an order book of £13m.
Now we see revenues of £1.12m in a lab that supposedly can do 40,000 tests (AFTER being expanded at significant cost) with a high margin. Looks like only a few thousand tests are happening based on the revenues if that (the RNS talks about delayed samples but really that many to make a difference?) so either there is no demand or the new business team is not performing.
This all happened under the financial director and CEO, and no update to the market of considerably less revenues forecast compared to earlier this year. Also Alastair who came from an impressive background and built a lot up prior but we haven’t heard from.
We have what 6-7m in the bank, but it basically just covers the outstanding debt.
The finance director needs to be sacked after this and I think a change of CEO needs to be considered, the foundations are built and we now need to hand over to the right person. There needs to be a clear outlook for the next 12 and 18 months… or we just find a buyer and sell the business to claw something back.
At year end results 27 Feb 2023 the company said "Stronger growth in current financial year, with first half FY2023 revenue already exceeding level for the 15 months to 31 August 2022"
and today they are saying revenue for H1 end Feb. 23 only £1.12m , last year it was £3.79m
how is this possible ? i have got a large holding hear i think i will sell the lot first thing tomorrow morning
No doubt. 75% down in last 12 months. Even more if you go last 15 months. We are almost 90%down from all time high. Just remember that nothing is lost unless you sold.