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Thanks Halma. I do alright but I'm always learning, I always held on to my shares for at least a year but since finding out about the 200 day rule I will happily ditch a stock as soon as it breaches it. It would have cost me some profits in the past but it would have saved me much more in terms of avoiding losses.
Seems OWLS knows his stuff and all very interesting
We've all been guilty of holding on too long at some stage, we've also been guilty of not holding on long enough, we can all relate to previous errors of judgment that's for sure.
Some very useful debate going on and long may it continue.
NOVICEHUNTER,
It's not me that invented the 200 day rule. I've only just started using it, I have made very good profits on OCDO in the past but I have been guilty of holding on when I should have sold.
Not quite sure what your problem is, I've just stated the facts, perhaps you could make a contribution rather than just having a go at me.
I agree that 833% is fantastic, although you would have lost over 70% in the 1st couple of years so it wouldn't have been an easy ride.
Well done VP, we've both made excellent profits on here albeit with different strategies.
OWLS, all very easy predicting what has already happened !! Plus 833% return for having your capital tied up 11 years WOW what's not to like where else would you have wanted to keep it and made that sort of money !! Beggars belief what people post. I take it you made all the stated moves at exactly the right times Lolzz
OWLS, Bottom line is there are many successful trading systems out there. You just play the numbers and do limited research on stocks. I go a whole lot deeper and research heavily to fully understand stocks and then stick with them through momentum changes.
Seems we both have a successful trading strategy which is great. There is no guaranteed system out there and we each expose ourself to the level of risk we are comfortable with.
The past is one thing, the future is a whole different beast. Personally I see Ocado rising from here and look forward to further gains. You would rather sit on the sidelines until it rises further. Let's see how it pans out..
As a result of today's financing RNS Ocado look to be on a surer financing foundation for the coming years..
In that instance you would have been better selling and then buying back when the share price changed momentum. If it lost 50% then you would need a 100% gain to get back to breakeven.
If you had followed the 200 day rule you would have bought at 82p in Jan 13 and sold at £4.22 in Apr 14 (411% gain), bought at £3.09 in Nov 17 and sold at £7.73 in Oct 18 (150% gain) and bought at £11 in Mar 20 and sold at £23 in Feb 21 (109% gain).
Total gain would be 2,200% and you would have only tied your capital up for 3 years. Average return 733% per annum.
If you had held since the start you would have made a 833% return (still very impressive) but you would have had your capital tied up 11 years and would have had some very worrying drawdowns during that period. Average return 76% per year.
If I had followed momentum and bought and sold Ocado shares countless times over the years there's no way I would have the profits I have today. After I first bought the share price plunged 50% for a year duration. So easy to sell up and move on but I saw something bigger in the future. The Andover fire, very confronting and a certain sell point for a momentum investor but selling was not the correct move then. Ocado publicly promised an first overseas CFC contract. It didn't then materialise, huge drop in share price. I could go on, hold was the correct move not selling. Long hold has rewarded me very well. Tough period currently but I see more upside to come..
"I believe we are near the bottom of the current range. You can wait for £21 but that would be missing the profit from here until £21. "
Value, you have been bullish on this since it was well above £21 so you will have lost a lot over the last few months. Nobody knows what the bottom is, follow the 200 day rule and you won't suffer too much, you won't get in at the bottom or sell at the top but you will limit your risk.
Following the 200 day rule would have had you buying at £11 in March 20 and selling at £23 in February this year.
Top advice and many thanks Discern
I'll see how tomorrow starts and might jump back in
Great thread! Personally I like to sell a proportion short term up to half my shares and keep the rest long term. I will top up again if SP dips to £16.50 then take some profit around the 21 mark which seems to be the ceiling... Although I'm currently overweight overall I am still in profit.
Thoroughly agree with VP & others that there are indeed so many opportunities for O to shoot up at any time.
Good luck Halma.
Currently, now that the share price has subsided from its pandemic over inflated high, there is a great entry point into Ocado shares. I wouldn't encourage others to invest in Ocado for the short term. Over the years I have seen so many others sell out after a loss only then to see an even greater rise later on..
Cheers to all of you,
I openly admitted that I'd come in way too late to the party and nearly paid a hefty price for it
Long term begins at your starting point, not mine.
I have the fund's and will no doubts be back in but I need to be more certain of the direction before committing the amounts we're talking about.
Well said Halma and well played as they say !
The charts help here - anyone who invested before the end of February 2020 is still showing a very healthy profit - those who invested in the last year are showing a loss because the trend since then has been down.
So it comes down to investors assessment of the company fortunes for the long term.
My assessment is that a very good base for growth has been created and that it is only a matter of time before the SP starts moving forward again. Therefore, there is a good chance that the current SP is at or near the bottom of its range.
Halma - remember as this is a growth share, you will always see more volatility - just invest in the dips.
Fair enough Halma. I've held the vast majority of my Ocado shares for 4 years with small top ups on the way. 490% return so far on my investment. It's the long term Ocado and myself are focussed on not the day to day ups and downs.
Am looking forward to more anticipated upside..
The sheer volatility of this share can take it either way at the drop of a hat and for this reason I changed my mind about any long term here, after all we're investing large amounts of capital to make money, not lose it.
I believe we are near the bottom of the current range. You can wait for £21 but that would be missing the profit from here until £21. This share in August went from £17.8 to £20.9 within 2.5 weeks. It can do that again. The share, as it's done in the past many times, could pop significantly upwards at any moment.
There are so many successful strategies out there. Best of luck whichever you choose. Still long term hold for me.
Cheers OWLS
I'll do just that.
Wait until it is above the 200 day SMA, currently £21.
I take my hat off to you Jimmyroyal,
Upfront about things and rightly so, I too, had concerns when I was a 'few grand' down but lucky for me I held my nerve and it came back to a profit situation, a decision was taken and I sold the 1000 out but held the funds just incase I could get back in at less.
That happened and I jumped in again for my 1000 and sold out again at £17-74 2 days ago for another small profit and my outlay back, now wondering when buy again but where's the bottom here?
I think I'll wait until it starts showing signs of going the other way and keep that happy feeling inside, knowing I didn't get burned.
Good luck Jimmy
Lots of good news in the pipeline - could take off at any time.
Never traded this one, an ideas for an initial entry. This level is intriguing me or is it still in a bear trend?
Opinions welcomed for a quick heads up. Not advice. Thanks in advnace anyone who follows this one.
Thanks Neil have a great day ! Off to play 18 soon happy days….
I've made some and lost some on OCDO, but ultimately I've made more than I've lost.
It's a rollercoaster this one!
Good luck to all.
Good luck Jimmy!