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SFH300,
Currently they coexist. In the UK delta rates are broadly stable whilst Omicron rates are rocketing upwards as it is far more transmissible. As this trend continues I would expect there to be less people for Delta to infect as more and more have Omicron. Thus delta should start to wane.
Heard some talk of the ability for people to catch both variants at the same time but I think that's unlikely. One will supercede the other.
How do you see this issue panning out?
"On the downside there is a chance that Omicron quickly displaces Delta around the world (very likely) ...
Just to clarify, we now know that Omicron and Delta co-exist. Thus far Omicron hasn't displaced Delta.
http://newsfile.refinitiv.com/getnewsfile/v1/story?guid=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20211216:nPn47lqbYa&default-theme=true just some more good news
They can be held too long or sold too soon. I am hanging on in there with OCDO; I could've sold November and taken profits but only slim ones. My portfolio is like the ocean - much of it underwater.
Cheers OWLS,
Even I'm amazed at how fast the S.P of Halma has risen, although it could be so much more if they split the divisions and float them separately.
No complaints here, whatever they choose to do.
Quite right Chilting,
I still have a back bone of good, solid holdings I've held forever and a day, the serious amount I have invested in Ocado is part of the long term plan.
Amounts under 10k fall into the two year make or break category, where more scrutiny is required.
Bar one recent error of judgment, it's served me well.
Good for your mum and like you I'm in at the deeper end here but feel there's much more to come and we've had many glimpses of what can be.
I think one or two contributors to this board are in that lucky position of investing here when the SP was flatlining around the 250 - 300p mark - unfortunately I am not one of them, but rich rewards are still here for the taking.
Well done with HLMA. CRDA is another similar share. The trick is to find them in advance.
I don't think that the two year view applies to growth shares like Ocado - these have to be a long term hold.
My late Dad brought Ashtead shares back in the late 1980's when they were about 30p - my Mum still has a substantial holding of the originals in her account today at 6464p.
Tell you what OWLS,
I'm so happy that advice was lost on me as goes my 4000 Halma.
S.P through the roof and another decent divi to add to the 30 odd years worth I've already had the benefit of.
2 year's is my usual make or break term, Ocado is a relative new kid on the block for me and will leave well alone to do its own thing.
Not very often I agree with NH but there is a danger in holding stocks too long.
I am looking forward to when the tide turns for OCDO but still in a downtrend at the moment.
Halma, hi and thank you for your wishes, I am pleased you too have had a bumper year.
I never keep an equity longer than 2 years and it has served me well in dividends and equity.
There’s a long winter ahead and preparing for a bumper tree planting in 2022,23 and hoping the public will plant at least one tree each in upcoming promotions.
Good luck
Welcome back Neil,
If Covid doesn't get you, the stock market certainly will,
Glad you're tickety boo and that you've had a bumper year, had one myself and im sure a fair few on here have.
Enjoy the rest of your life.
Personally this has been the best year my trust and I have had in decades! Absolutely delighted!
I hope you all have a great Christmas and happy new year and happy investing!
Yes all that rings true Valueplay.
Basically its a build up of negative factors at a time when markets are weak with no one factor dominating, this has followed on from the purple period for Ocado during the worst of the pandemic.
Fortunes will change at some point - as Halma says we have all taken a hit with our portfolios, but now is certainly not the time to run scared ans sell.
Cheers V.P
I think alot of us have taken hit within our portfolio's but I've seen it all before and toughed out some really bad times, I continue to hold everything I'm invested in and my faith has been repaid because of it.
Good luck all and I'm sure the good times will return at some stage.
Part 2 - General inflationary influenced risk off trade in the general market.
Currently traders are selling stocks with higher risk.
A quote from the below article
"“There’s a flight to quality with companies that you know will weather the storm, not go bankrupt, not have financial distress,” Needham analyst Laura Martin told CNBC."
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/03/worst-performing-tech-stocks-this-week-suggest-us-over-lockdowns.html?__source=androidappshare
Inflation is rising and reducing the growth forecasts of growth stocks. Stocks with low current profits have been sold off over the last week. Ocado has been sold off but others have had steeper sell offs. Pandemic food delivery winners such as Just eat, Doordash (USA) and Deliveroo have been sold off greatly. On the plus side borrowing rates are incredibly low currently and the demand for the best online grocery systems is strong. The online grocery trend will continue upwards and Ocado has a profitable solution for grocers around the world to combat Amazon/Walmart etc.
Where will things go from now?
Ocado is well financed, has income from its ownership of half of Ocado retail UK flowing and also income from the fees it charges of around 4-5% of all the value of goods processed via the 4 active Ocado Solutions CFCs. All the Ocado overseas contracts are progressing well as far as I can ascertain. Ocados management team has been strengthened over the past year.
I believe the current sell off will be reversed. There have been many, many of these sharp corrections in the past only for Ocado shares to push higher at a later date. Retrospectively £29 was a very high pandemic fuelled price for Ocado shares. It will take a while to reach those sights. More realistically a return to £18-19 should be achieved before long.
Interim Autostore ITC patent court case ruling is due on or before 13th Dec. Ocado retail trading statement is due on 14th Dec.
Interesting times ahead. Best to all.
Below represents my views, always do your own research.
Part 1 - The 2 main current drivers to Ocados share price are Omicron and a general inflationary influenced risk off trade in the general market.
Part 1 - Omicron. When Omicron emerged in mid November it pushed the Ocado share price from mid £17 to a top of £19.5 on 19 Nov. Reason being it was assumed the new virus represented a good chance of more lockdowns and a general worsening extension of Covid. Lockdowns/ working from home have a clear correlation with increased sales of online grocery and an acceleration of the consumers channel shift from store to online.
That Omicron boost has worn off. It may boost the Ocado share price once more but there is mixed data emerging. Omicrons higher transmissibility is clear however currently it seems the symptoms are mild. Alpha and delta symptoms though, when they initially emerged, were mild also, then they worsened. As Omicron has high transmission even though hospitalisation rates are lower if the virus circulates more than delta it could lead to higher hospitalisation.
On the downside there is a chance that Omicron quickly displaces Delta around the world (very likely) and that the symptoms are mild, reducing hospitalisation rates and deaths (data unclear). If Omicron becomes dominant and is mild it could end the pandemic early as the key problem for society has been the clogging up of hospitals. If hospitals are not overloaded then further covid restrictions that help Ocado are unlikely.
Many online grocery CEOs have commented that the pandemic has escalated the adoption and growth of online grocery by 5 years. If the pandemic slows then further growth will occur at a slower level reducing Ocados growth estimates and crimping its share price.
Overall I believe Omicron will be mildly positive for Ocados share price. Travel bans, more working from home should boost Ocado a little. Alpha and delta were worse than the variants that came before them. Omicron could continue this trend. Work from home should increase around the world.