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Went out today with the wife and daughters family seven in total,daughter had booked a table at a lovely pub near her home called the Navigation inn at Stoke Bruerne Towcester right next to the canal,when we got there it turned out to be a Marstons inn,she had booked a table for one oclock they have a very large garden at the front ,one at the rear and six or seven tables on the towpath ,by the time we had sat down every table was full with most people eating and the large carpark had very few empty spaces,the food was very good and all social distancing was being used ,,,,and I also got to use my share holder 20 per cent discount card ,
However, in previous times a trip to the pub was not seen as detrimental to your health (well, not short term anyway!). At least MARS has a nice supply line setup to the supermarkets to soften the blow, unlike JDW or MAB.
I know from the past studies that have shown when times are hard for people Beer sales increase.
Perhaps we should wait in expectation and see if this flows through to the UK Market. If so we will benefit here.
It seems clear the basic structure of the JV is not properly understood.
In return for Marstons transferring ALL it's brewing and distribution facilities it will recieve a Total of £273m ( £34m of which is withheld and payed in 1 year when agreed conditions are met).
Marstons will then own 40% of the Newly created Company, CMBC ( Carlsberg Marstons Brewing Company)
There are other conditions which if breached can give , in particular, Carlsberg an opportunity to enforce pre-determined actions, which could damage Marstons. Clearly that is an extreme situation but the possibilty is there. Make no mistake Carlsberg are no push over, just look at their previous JV agreements.
You conveniently forgot to reflect the massive debt that they have. Marstons will be sold off piece meal and will not be around in 10 yrs. the question is what will they get in total LESS repayment of loans to get true value
Sales I cannot help with. From a friend whose partner works there however, her shifts are back to normal.
Initially they were reduced on re-open, however now she is back as normal. Make of it what you will :)
I’m going to assume you missed the question mark within the post I think you’re referring too. Was trying to get my head around the equalisation payment as the post before that was suggesting the 273m was for 40% which clearly it isn’t.
If the question however is in relation to the £1.50 I threw out then likewise I am also confused as 42p at the time of posting to £1.50 is not a 10 fold increase unless I’m missing something. You appear annoyed that I’m invested here. The funny thing is I don’t need a reason or have to explain it to anyone, I shall remain invested and likely even increase my holding until such a time I see fit to do otherwise.
Atb - PP
I can see why Boris wants to protect our hard work for foreign high exposed areas. It is also good to see we are under control even with the Pubs open.
Can't wait for an update now on overall sales for Marstons beers and their World sales.
Funny how the no's have fallen with the pubs open - Perhaps drinking beer is the cure? Fancy that?
I am probably being very thick here, (please excuse me), but how do you think we are overlooking the fact that thes nav of these shares will rise tenfold because of the equalisation firures you quote ?
I have looked at the accounts, and am no expert on them, but the numbers I see are very much what Fairdealer quotes.
What am I missing ? What is the rest of the investment community apparently also missing?
I just don't get it.
Well can’t see Estrella renewing their deal with Marstons for the distribution when/if this JV goes ahead, their nose has been pushed well out of joint with the Calsberg move with their baby San Miguel!!!!
I must Admit I had heard of all of the International beers they distribute (apart from American shipyard) but am pleasantly surprised at the overall depth of variation of the distribution including therefore real ales and lagers. It makes the CAMRA objection to the Carlsberg JV look a but naive if you ask me. Marstons are in fact in favour of a larger distribution and not less. The rising pound I can see will help us with that imported for sale in the Uk. Good luck to all & a nice trickle up today -perhaps the start of a long and sustained recovery back up to pre-pandemic & £1 levels would be nice!
We only brew the Ichiban under license, estrella is imported in (bottles and cans), tankered over from Spain and we keg it at Bedford. Warsteiner and Founders only distributed through us
See below to this years earlier announcement I did not know Marstons made so many International and Japanese Beers "KIRIN" and European beers to be honest "ESTRELLA DAMM, WARSTEINER, and AMERICAN (SHIPYARD FOUNDERS") see link :-
The Gerald Pontificus version is the one I quoted, has me in stitches every time. Small things please small minds though :)
There’s an age old video on YouTube called Buy The Dip. Pretty self explanatory and ties in with sheesh and giggles.
Opposing views are great, it’s what makes the market. My gut is fairly accurate overall and so my stubbornness sits alongside it. At the end of the day I’m following my own intuition as opposed to anyone else so on a win I take great joy whilst on the reverse I only have my self to blame both scenarios of which I can live with whilst learning along the way. It is what it is and will be what it will be. We can only position ourselves accordingly. GL mate
"What we have here is a failure to honestly and openly communicate whilst trying to buy the dip."
Pitterpatter please explain this statement?
Some rely on facts and not hyperbole. Anyone who seriously believes CMBC will be worth circa £8billion within short order are in cloud cuckoo land and needs to examine and explain how such a valuation is to be achieved?.
Once the JV is finally approved Marstons will recieve £239m, a further up to £34m will be recieved in 12 months given certain agreed conditions.
Currently the combined EBITDA is £65m ( Carls £21m, Mars £44m).
Under the JV agreement MARS will recieve 40% which with the likelyhood revenues remaining, on average, static over the next 3 years, Marstons will recieve £26m.pa
To maintain existing brewery earnings from CMBC in year 3 , growth needs to be +22% pa . A level never achieved in recent history. OK strip put projected cost savings in yr 3 which are off-set by almost equal consolidation costs.
Any comparitor with pre-Covid market prices are erroneous as many of us know who are in at a higher SP based on a generous Dividend payment, which at a time returned 7% ( dependant on average holding price).
Just look at Rolls Royce, Royal Dutch Shell etc, whose share prices were significantly higher pre -COVID. Any number of Blue Chip company's would be double, triple their existing SP were it not for CV-19.
The World has changed and will continue to do so and those investors who have arrived since lockdown , believing fortunes are to be made using COVID Loans/Grants, are one suspects becoming nervious and trying to influence prices.
These boards do little to move Share prices....the Market will as always determine value within any stock looking forwards.
As always DYOR and NEVER invest more than you are prepared to lose.
New to Mars having just bought a £100,000 at price that I feel is a bargain. 41p is a great investment and looking at the recent director buys I don’t think they’ll be wanting it to stay at these levels.
Yes and no. Carlsberg are a big name, especially to sit alongside the likes of Marston’s - so yes 60% with a juicy cash payment is plausible for a 40% return on top referencing the brewing side. Positive also considering the current environment.
As for shorting, we’re all aware of the spike it’ll cause when the shorters close and suddenly have to buy millions of shares back including the negative posters. One whiff of unexpected positive news and it’ll turn quicker than many are able to get back in whilst looking for rock bottom. That’s the risk the opposing side take.
What we have here is a failure to honestly and openly communicate whilst trying to buy the dip.
I’m in for a fair bit and will add further on weakness, seems rude not too. Each to their own though. I do not for one second buy into the notion that negative posters are here or anywhere looking out for PIs interests, they are here looking out for their own interests. None of us were born yesterday
Marston’s were £1.06 p/s before Covid took hold and averaged out around £1.20 + p/s for the 5 years before that. Again huge numbers to be throwing around but it is what it is - stick a Carlsberg JV on top and we have to end up somewhere more realistic than 20p per share moving forward. My best guess is that Carlsberg did SPs, we’re looking at £1.50 +
There are some huge numbers being waved around here, but do you think that if they were remotely likely ;
1 Would RF have given up 60% of the jewel in the crown ?
2 Would the "city scribblers " not have worked it out but only the posters here ?
3 Would hedge funds be shorting the stock ?
Just a thought......
Mark you Fairdealers numbers have always been consistent and accurate
Bearing in mind that the £273m is an equalisation payment for 10% are we overlooking the fact that it values the new venture much higher than both the existing £580m and £200m combined over time ? Like 10x that initial figure
If Marstons are receiving a couple of hundred million for their 40% and Sandyman you have worked this out to be for their share then that values the whole deal at 102.50p a share? Please also remember this is only for the Brewery distribution side of the business, the 1200 odd Pubs, etc that are also owned by Marstons in freehold. i.e not leased will increase the share book price further outside of the JV deal. Whatever way one looks this is one cheap share at the moment only cheap because of a temporary situation. Longer term this has tremendous upside where I anticipate the share price will at least double, as do many other fund managers.
I have seen this share price fall to 41p (where it gains support) and then recover back up to 51p very quickly. You do not have to be a scientist to see that when large fund managers such as standard life/p/o Aberdeen Asset Man, have this as a growth stock to their savings/pensions schemes then it will have support particularly towards the end of the month in line with pay rolls.
Sentiment will also improve later with the Feds announcement regarding further impetus.
But the SP will soon be under 20p, but in due course will recover to 41p
According to Company accounts debt amounted to over £1.3bn as at 30th September 2019, loss for 1st half to 31st March 2020, increased temporary facility of £70m.
Although there is value in Property assets, from recent disposals they have been overvalued......the sale to Admiral came with a significant discount to book value. It would be no surprise that the estate is being re-valued to satisfy Lenders.
Whitbread are in predatory mode and looking to cherry-pick sites that fit it's portfolio........they have a significant "War-chest".
The company ( MARS) have many sites (Pubs) which are at or below break-even and therefore classic candidates for disposal.
If the Estate is worth anywhere near the figure being quoted, are shareholders too expect a windfall dividend!!!!!
At present, with the SP at almost the same level as the JV cash injection, the company's entite estate net value after debt £1.2bn, and the curent brewing business, valued at £580m (13x adjusted 2019 ebitda of £44m), are thrown in for free. The estate is worth £1.75 a share, so even if substantially discounted that's a huge reserve. People forget that property can be sold and that Marstons had a brewing company that does not rely solely on sales through its estate!