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I concur, growth and reduction of debt. Although no one knows what the government’s next move will be and how this will effect business things that are certain is Non-pub sales are exceptional in areas locked down and the JV will certainly bring in cash and make this business more attractive. Hopefully the market see’s the positivity here. GLA
Exactly as predicted
Steady as they go
Not bad at all, I was expecting much worse!
Very positive news and a good read. Let’s see how the market reacts.
Not the greatest nor worst
https://www2.trustnet.com/Investments/Article.aspx?id=202010150700021211C
Back to 50p will be a massive surge in my book Investingnewb, but a welcomed one for sure.
It is exciting when you know news is coming out and your unsure on how it’s really going to go, but you have a feeling it will go your way ????
The bonus could well be the £273 million, that Marstons are to receive as a payment upfront from Carlsberg, when the JV deal is signed.
The past results for the last 53 weeks up to Oct 3rd, won’t look good compared to previous years and it is already out there that the JV has been given the green light, so nothing really there in that.
BUT.... If the results do show a positive forecast and a big talk up on the JV and the possible revenue boost for Marstons, I can see a possible jump to 48p.
Let’s hope the results are positively received by the market. GLA
I personally think it’s going to be some positive news with the announcement tomorrow but I’m very unsure what this additional bonus could be that was talked about. Just wanted to say thanks to the response also on my prior messages from fairdealer, barchid and supercharger. I think this is definitely going to be a strong one for holding with the new deal! Although I think it will be positive results tomorrow though I don’t think we’re going to see a massive surge! I think we could be looking at being back to 50p again and slight increase at the end of October when it’s officially signed off.
Interestingly in line with what the Marstons press office told me a few weeks ago, Morning star have the final results being published on 25th November and they are as we know the adviser/notifier for the LSE. So perhaps Proactive investors have wind of an earlier update but I cannot see it officially published anywhere? Good luck to those braver than me!
I can see off sells being very good but pub sales must be down on last year, but lets face it better than when the last results were published earlier in the year during the pandemic. I regret that we could still have a full lock down with the numbers growing and I feel I will wait for further news. I was told a couple of weeks ago the full results would be published on 10th December so I will get up early tomorrow to see whats happening being safe.
Crucial is that Marston's brewers have done good off sales as this will carry forward and confirm income from the 40% in the future.
Demand for country property is up post and during covid if they sell off the estate.
My opinion is that not only do these earning reports detail the results from the past, they always project a future earning forecast and business outlook. With the JV now highly likely to close this month the future outlook will be significantly enhance with the additional funds the JV will bring. This should be seen in a positive light by the market and I believe the SP will rise tomorrow. It therefore could be the last chance to buy in at these levels before the deal closes and the SP rises significantly. I could well be wrong and this is just my opinion. For this reason I’ve opened a position here. Should it dip tomorrow then I’ll just be holding tight for when the JV deal closes. GLA
If pub sales are down on last year (almost likely) but have helped since March (as we are now open) BUT supermarket sales and off license sales are substantially increased (more likely) what happens to the share price?
Just wondering as most dealers like me will already have cashed in but are wondering whether to come back in for a punt?
My risk is do I invest now on a 6% fall and take a chance for tomorrow, or wait for the results bearing in mind that if the results are good for off pubs sales then this thing will rise? Interesting conundrum. Either way this is a very good longer term investment but without a vaccine could take 6 months to a year to start making real progress. Discussion invited.
It is possible that traders who jumped in on confirmation of the CMA OKing the JV are likely profit taking.
What on earth is happening with the marstons share price? It’s crazy! The JV news is positive and then the share price immediately goes back into free fall. Hard to argue it’s a market thing when Weatherspoon’s price goes up - all they’ve been reporting are job losses! There seems to be a constant negative overreaction on the price. I can’t fathom it....
A fairly old statement back in June so not really a position for the market to react, I believe the market driving slightly down today amongst other factors is that tomorrow will be the results of the anticipated figures so driving down then should pick up tomorrow with perhaps a further announcement later in the day or possibly within days of the RNS we've all been waiting for? Perhaps Fiona was right there might be a day of delight with multiple RNS delivered this week.
Lets hope for all that we can finally unite as a board and hold a glass up rather than the ***-4-tat of late. Not expecting amazing things but a glimmer of LT on the horizon.
With respect to Marstons, think they could we right and it's writedowns that could take this down.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/shares/2020/06/26/marston-s-40m-viral-hit-with-more-to-come/
Got MARS on my radar and have for a few months, gutted I didn’t get in before the Carlsberg go ahead but seems short lived as nothing confirmed yet, even though it’s pretty nailed on. Not sure if wise to get in before tomorrow and hope for better than anticipated results, or let a few bed setters drive the price down first. Hands down believe the company will be solid once working with Carlsberg but I’m betting on there being a few more drops before a bug rise. Pubs will always be a thing and alcohol will always be around as long as people are, even with restrictions in the short to mid-term.
I think we can guess a lot of what's coming to be fair, as it won't be anything too much unexpected trading wise. That said 2 redeeming features are likely to be the Carlsberg update and the off sales uptake at supermarkets et al.
Squeaky bum time praying for good results tomorrow!
Worth bearing in mind for a 'post-covid' recession/depression that bars are traditionally viewed as a safe haven/defensive stock in hard times. Can't afford that £1000 holiday?....take your pennies down to the bar and drown your sorrows in company.
Some decent after close buys .
Barchid,
Yes something I have tried to highlight for a while. One suspects Funders will be anxious to get updated values.
You mention Christies are down-valuing on average 20%, it is a different kettle of fish but understand many commercial properties are being down-valued considerably more than 20%. Of course location can make a big difference. It is probable smaller rural pubs can sell well as converting to Residential finds, at this time, a ready market whereas the larger Beer Houses can be too big for individual convertion to find an end market. Strange times .
Fair dealer
I am sure you are correct, this is the usual time in October for them to give the update. What I doubt we will receive this time though, is a revaluation of their estate, which we really need to work out their nav. I was reading a report this week from Christies, who are apparently pub valuers in Scotland, & even before the latest lockdowns they were down valuing by about 20%.
Clearly one can not do a read across to MARS but it is not likely to be pleasant for any pub owner to reveal up to date valuations in the current toxic climate.
Should hear more on the CMA clearance and its financial impact.
Shore Capital: "We view the formation of Carlsberg Marston's Beer Co (CMBC) as a masterstroke by management. It provides a significant initial cash injection (of up to £273m), an annual ongoing cash contribution (circa £20m consistent with that as a standalone entity) and upside from potential future cost and revenue synergies through its retained 40% stake."