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A fairly old statement back in June so not really a position for the market to react, I believe the market driving slightly down today amongst other factors is that tomorrow will be the results of the anticipated figures so driving down then should pick up tomorrow with perhaps a further announcement later in the day or possibly within days of the RNS we've all been waiting for? Perhaps Fiona was right there might be a day of delight with multiple RNS delivered this week.
Lets hope for all that we can finally unite as a board and hold a glass up rather than the ***-4-tat of late. Not expecting amazing things but a glimmer of LT on the horizon.
With respect to Marstons, think they could we right and it's writedowns that could take this down.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/shares/2020/06/26/marston-s-40m-viral-hit-with-more-to-come/
Got MARS on my radar and have for a few months, gutted I didn’t get in before the Carlsberg go ahead but seems short lived as nothing confirmed yet, even though it’s pretty nailed on. Not sure if wise to get in before tomorrow and hope for better than anticipated results, or let a few bed setters drive the price down first. Hands down believe the company will be solid once working with Carlsberg but I’m betting on there being a few more drops before a bug rise. Pubs will always be a thing and alcohol will always be around as long as people are, even with restrictions in the short to mid-term.
I think we can guess a lot of what's coming to be fair, as it won't be anything too much unexpected trading wise. That said 2 redeeming features are likely to be the Carlsberg update and the off sales uptake at supermarkets et al.
Squeaky bum time praying for good results tomorrow!
Worth bearing in mind for a 'post-covid' recession/depression that bars are traditionally viewed as a safe haven/defensive stock in hard times. Can't afford that £1000 holiday?....take your pennies down to the bar and drown your sorrows in company.
Some decent after close buys .
Barchid,
Yes something I have tried to highlight for a while. One suspects Funders will be anxious to get updated values.
You mention Christies are down-valuing on average 20%, it is a different kettle of fish but understand many commercial properties are being down-valued considerably more than 20%. Of course location can make a big difference. It is probable smaller rural pubs can sell well as converting to Residential finds, at this time, a ready market whereas the larger Beer Houses can be too big for individual convertion to find an end market. Strange times .
Fair dealer
I am sure you are correct, this is the usual time in October for them to give the update. What I doubt we will receive this time though, is a revaluation of their estate, which we really need to work out their nav. I was reading a report this week from Christies, who are apparently pub valuers in Scotland, & even before the latest lockdowns they were down valuing by about 20%.
Clearly one can not do a read across to MARS but it is not likely to be pleasant for any pub owner to reveal up to date valuations in the current toxic climate.
Should hear more on the CMA clearance and its financial impact.
Shore Capital: "We view the formation of Carlsberg Marston's Beer Co (CMBC) as a masterstroke by management. It provides a significant initial cash injection (of up to £273m), an annual ongoing cash contribution (circa £20m consistent with that as a standalone entity) and upside from potential future cost and revenue synergies through its retained 40% stake."
Jed...pretty sure it has been brought forward to it's usual timing ( 2nd Week Oct) because the CMA determined the JV ahead of their Statutory deadline, (20th October).
Judging by statements from others within the sector, don't expect too much
So why bring the trading up-date forward, it's either better than everyone is expecting or it's bad and they want to get it out the way so everything is looking good for the next qtr.
and recover to 50p when the worst of the coronavirus is confirmed to be over, likely to be sometime after April. From there it can hit 75p on evidence of ''effective synergies'' between the ''two companies'' It will not hit £1 for a long time because whilst the virus will be on the way out soon, the recession that will proceed will last a long time.
The last quarter should be a great quarter with good weather and the eat out to help out
Forward statement is going to be nasty
Carlsberg deal is the the one that sets this alight... solid from here
Jed not sure the size of a company gives the resilience it once did. Just look at MAB, who have a larger estate than MARS and look how they are having make resource reductions.
The brought-forward trading results will be interesting on Thursday.
Following clearance from the Competition and Markets Authority earlier than anticipated, on the proposed joint venture with Carlsberg, Marston's confirms that it will now announce its trading update for the 53 week year ending 3 October 2020 on 15 October, rather than 21 October 2020 as previously announced.
For many pubs is very sad if they have to close , lose money lose jobs and never open again for all the owners and staff , unfortunately it will hit many small independants and owner / runner pubs more than the big groups.
But if that happens in the long run many big groups like marstons could come out of this with less competition and as such make more profits.
The new rules just regulate social distancing behaviors. Mars momentum still good imo, sentiment a bit jaded by cv.
It has been clarified that pubs serving food CAN remain open even under tier 3 (severest) restrictions. Drink can ONLY be served with a 'substantial' meal (cheesy quavers ?!?) which perversely could drive sales.
In areas of the country subject to the highest levels of restrictions pubs are to close but it appears that restaurants can stay open. Additionally the new guidelines state that: 'Alcohol can still be served under the 'very high' alert level but it must be purchased with a meal'. (presumably intended for restaurants)
I'm just wondering if this offers our food-led pubs a workaround? Perhaps pay the council a smallish fee to reclassify if required.
Lol. You forgot the usual market complete over-reaction to news of impending restrictions. Changes nothing for Marston's value at all. Good chance to top up though!!
Statement from Carlsberg UK!!
Tomasz Blawat, managing director of Carlsberg UK, said: "We welcome the decision by the Competition and Markets Authority and wish to put on record our thanks to them for the thoroughness of their work in recent months.
“The joint venture between Carlsberg UK and Marston’s PLC to form the Carlsberg Marston’s Brewing Company, unites two historic brewers with shared values, history and heritage, to create a company with a sustainable future in UK brewing.
“Today’s decision is a significant milestone in the formation of the new company, which we believe will create significant value for employees, customers and beer-drinkers in the UK, and we look forward to moving to the next stage on this journey.”
60p, that’s rather optimistic of you, but a 54-55 should be realistic and I will be very happy with that.
Vaccine??? I don’t think it is a very good vaccine, by most accounts. If it does come, it’ll only be available to 50+ and the vulnerable who are most at risk.
We shall see, but SP should be 70p+ when deal is done at the end of October.
Good Luck All.
The business will continue to recover and £240m incoming. Carlsberg knows the value here and what they are getting. otherwise they wouldn't have bothered in May when things looked real bleak!! Exciting time as vaccine news is due in next 30 days.
CV is still a risk, yes. Good that it looks like only tier 3 (hotspot) geographies might close pubs, but not restaurants. That says to me the business operation and momentum will continue to build/ recover. My only regret is not buying more at the lows :-(