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Trek, thanks for your detailed input on this and the points you’ve highlighted. Much appreciated. GLA
Main point I think.
With third party fund (management fee) and historical performance. Every 1 pound they invest today is worth 3 pounds in 27m. You then project what the value of 3 pounds reinvested in 27 months time 5-6 pounds.
If you look at it like this it is exceptionally cheap. Headcount is not a big deal and they won't issue equity, it is simply not worth it.
Peter,
I had a quick look over coffee. I would normal spend many hours researching and looking at peers as well.
The interims presentation is very comprehensive and covers most questions...
https://www.lcmfinance.com/shareholders/investor-presentations-results/
The securing of the $50m finance on what looks to be cost in terms, net of resolution expenses is favourable.
They do seem to have a good throughput of resolutions and an increase with 266 on the books.
What would help is some average dwell time measures so you have an idea of churn. They refer to natural smoothing as volumes increase but then you need to know about tails. Those slow cases that may be costing them. How many cases are in the tail?
This data may be available if one digs deeper.
Also with this growth what is the headcount like? Recruiting skilled professionals in this field is not easy. It’s difficult to see if they are in danger of growing to quickly. The current macro lends itself to this type of business. If interest rates creep up there could be even more work for them.
All said it looks like a steady investment albeit light on cash from what I can see. The RCF is fine if you know how regular the cash flow is. That is currently erratic. If rates do increase so will libor. So equity or a mix of equity and debt may be preferable.
They only have 116m shares and I am sure just £5m cash via an accelerated book build with a small discount would be very well supported and double their cash position. That would give them more breathing space for what is a busy schedule and pretty sure to recruit.
The chart on the 5 year shows a strong handle which is very bullish.
I would have a punt here but fully invested elsewhere.
Usual caveats
Trek
OK cool, any specific items I should read?
GST already has extremely strong financial sector ties, their advantage in disrupting the banking system is obvious once you scratch the surface.
I actually worked in investment banking for 20 years. Risk teams were looking at block chain for few years, I think you need a good advantage to sell into them. I am no expert so I stay away on it
Thanks.
Personally I don't mind exchanging names. I found great investments this way :)
GST is my tip. New to blockchain. I don’t generally cross ramp though (and find it irritating on the ARB board when others appear and do it) so that’s all I’ll say.
If you want copper look ar arcm.
They are copper explorer in last stage of making deal with Anglo american. They just countered anglo's offer. This was on a live investor call yesterday,it will go on website soon
Anglo are interested and so are other major mining companies
Rothschilds m and a, are structuring negotiations with no win fee structure.
Potentially they have some gauge tier 1 deposits.
If you have a tip I am listening :)
Well my bank balance and I missed argo!!!.
Not many uncorrelated assets out there with big potential. That is why I like this
I came from Argo, this does feel safe, as does Argo to be fair.
funky finance quoting a target of around 6 pounds is helping alot.
we have to remember that this guy has been recommending, crypto and argo blockchain. these things are up in the 1000s%
the investors are washed with cash, not afriad of momentum stocks. this probably feels uber safe to them and their money could easily continue to flow here, especially when second fund is announced.
Yeah this has plenty of room to run!
This board had hardly any activity and now there is some we have an argument. Can we focus on the company?.This has share price target of 120/130And a market commentator stating potential 8 bagger