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Delayed 100k at 82p gone through. Eventually, they'll shift.
Anyone selling now is an absolute clown...
Yes, they've always struck me as short term financiers rather than investors, and they took a slice of the pie only (the subscription) when they knew a newsworthy flow was on the table.
Canaccord Genuity would be my guess too, but I only base that on their track record of selling down as the news flow starts coming in.
Another 150k or so today. Who do we think it is then? I'll go first: CG.
another one where there is an overhang, warrants being cleared, and a value disconnect for those that are interested is ACP
now trading at less than it was before it got its mining license a month ago....graphite...should do well soon
Very happy here at LBE and will look to add if we go much lower
cheers Trek
I am in LND with you and the price is daft now lol
Seen these SP declines on the back of a seller so many times. It usually goes lower than you expect because the MM has to lower the price to tempt buyers to clear the stock. It’s just how it works; often very little to do with value. The same is happening at LND atm.
Stock to be sold buyers to be found. MM doesn’t care about the price. They want to make the market. They may even short their own overhang as they know where it’s going so there is an exacerbated value disconnect until the market is balanced.
When the overhang clears that’s when we can start to gauge value. Until then what I do is set price buy points. If you want 50k shares, break up the trade and buy at say 85, 81, 77 and then put the last in if it goes lower.
If it looks like the price is going higher and you have funds left once the volumes have cleared happy days you can then average up. Your earlier buys will provide a SP cushion.
If you already have a position and the SP is falling you may consider selling a % your holding and rebuying to grab more stock and improve on one’s average. I have done this successfully at PXC, PUR and ECR recently. PXC and PUR are now in the money and at ECR I have an amount that I am waiting to put back in.
I agree it’s not everyone’s cup of tea. Some like to buy and hold just like Warren says. But Warren wouldn’t buy AIM stocks and for every buy and hold success I could fine 2 or 3 where buy and hold would = significantly underwater or failed!
LBE has a descent board, is cashed up and has a good pf spread some of which is now derisked so buy and hold may well work here and averaging in may not get the best price but it’s always worth considering alternatives and having an understanding of why the SP is disconnected from its NAV.
And that’s not just LBE, look at SAVE (suspended atm) but institutions had an average of 36p and yet a bit of selling took the SP down to 7.5p!
For sure buy and hold there will likely soon come good but one averaging down whilst holding a core has a lower SP average and far more shares.
Food for though...
Usual caveats
Trek
I completely agree. I only use that figure because it came from the company as an indication of the value attached per BOE on the NCS. I think that the longer hydrocarbon prices stay high, the higher this figure will drift upwards.
I would argue that a significant discovery of light oil within close proximity of infrastructure in the current oil price environment is worth more than $4/bbl in the ground too.
I agree with all of that. I'd love to see some TR1s so we can at least know how much any seller has left if they're leaving the building.
We raised new money at 75p - giving us a market cap at re-list of ~£43m, with cash reserves of ~£38m.
Since then, we've so far gained net 4.65mmboe at the low end or 11.85mmboe at the high end in combined recoverable resources across the two fields drilled, based on conservative figures, with five more fields to come. At the BOD's stated $4/boe that's a proxy uplift of £18.6m at the low end or £34.4m at the upside.
My view is that the mid point value uplift should be applied on top of the cash levels at a minimum sensible valuation.
£38m (cash)+£23.9m (mid recoverable resources value at $4/boe) =£61.9m, or ~108p, before any management premiums are applied or any value of barrels that may be found in the future, etc.
Yesterday totally derisked this for me. Relax and switch off and wait for lbe mgt to build the business they aim to do
The share price is underpinned now by yesterday’s news
Another two buys for me today, don't look a gift horse in the mouth as they say.
I'm so much more relaxed about the share price now after yesterday. I remember when one of the pension funds was a forced seller in Taylor Wimpey, sometime in 2008 I think it was. They just decimated the sp. I managed to buy a whole load of shares at 7p and sold them for a very handsome profit some months later, so big sellers can be a great opportunity.
I wish we could get some TR1s though, I'm curious to know who the seller is.
There's something so bizarre about thinking that after two oil strikes here I can buy pretty much at my average!
Eventually, value will play out. Esspecially if they keep finding hydrocarbons at the rate they currently are!
Egyptian Vulture has given the company something very significant to work with. Rodhette perhaps a smaller bonus but the true value of both are dependent on further exploration/appraisal. Still 5 well results (including 6 prospects) to come during this campaign - success at a couple of them would be very helpful and would give Longboat a small portfolio to appraise/sell/develop.
For shareholders it might mean waiting for that to play out over the next year or two, by which time hopefully Longboat will have transitioned into the E&P company it wants to become. It will probably take a bit of time though and won’t happen overnight - full value is never achieved from one successful exploration well.
There are still sellers and O&G remains an unloved sector despite commodity prices, but some more success with the drillbit would be very welcome and if that happens the value should eventually be reflected in the share price.
Agreed, the day to day share price doesn't bother me....as a LTH I take my comfort from the management team who succeeded at Pharoe and even in the difficult times of covid managed cheap as chips farm-in agreements in prolific areas they know better than most - 2 drill results and 2 discoveries....and they have plenty of skin in the game which in my opinion creates the perfect investment. Yes a higher risk investment with high rewards....and the investment already now looks de-risked. ATB
I've been doing my sums today mozza and the more analysis I do, the more I realise, I'm not worried about the SP at all. We're massively undervalued as things stand, and with the potential upside on the remaining drills, taking into account COS and Longboat's working interest, I'm guesstimating that the SP value increase to be in the region of 129p, and that's not including the value increase from Rodhette and Vulture, which I'm assuming around the 60p mark.
I'm just going to top up as and when I can afford, assuming we're still at these low SPs.
Surely by mid next year, we should be over £2. But if not, I'll just keep topping up.
It will be really interesting to see how we trade today after the massive volume yesterday. I'm hoping the seller that appeared to be around has cleared so we can move up properly if the volume arrives on the buy side.