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....to be fair if buying now you've got a better chance than many of making some profit ..... there are many here though (not myself) that are well underwater & probably needing a £1 per consolidated share to break even..... I'll be satisfied with my profit at that although based on what these Muppets have achieved over the last 5 years & how the market seems to view just about anything Lenigas linked I'm beginning to think even that's becoming a rainbow chase now....
Fair enough @Bannor. I'm only trying to be helpful. @Frankie persuaded me to share and help fellow suffers, I mean long term holders, even though it's not actually in my personal interests to do so at this moment in time. And it seems that doing so has come up trumps from various angles this weekend. Hopefully the share price doesn't react until I get a chance to change my sex to non - but if it does, c'est la vie eh?
Yada yada yada..... I'll wait until I see an RNS confirming this, that or the other has been confirmed to have happened .... I've yet to see this BoD succeed in progressing successfully anything they've put their minds or pen to or have promised ...... unless of course you include launching torpedoes at the SP decreasing the Share price with unnecessary levels of debt & dilution & undermining our assets of course!!
I really cannot express my dislike, loathing & distrust of our BoD (both past & present) enough & the sooner they become history rather than present the better...... & I wouldn't be surprised if others felt the same & at least partly accounts for our decline over the last 5 years .....
LoL @Bannor! I don't blame you. For the benefit of others (I know you won't believe anything until you see it in an RNS or money in the bank) I'll spell it out using more words.
2020 $30m to the project from iron ore stock piles (this is more like $35m at today's prices)
2021 $30m to the project from iron ore stock piles (this is more like $35m at today's prices)
2021 $138.30m of (mostly) debt raised for the remainder of the CapEx. This will likely be paid back over the life of the project, something like $15-20m a year?
===[
Rehabilitation to be completed by the end of 2021 with new production in 2022. Full production by 2024 of 5.3 million tonnes ("Mt") of iron ore per annum.
]===
2022. Revenue from new production - minus CapEx repayments. = potential free cash flow
2023. Revenue from ramping up of production - minus CapEx repayments = potential free cash flow
===[
At full production and using US$61 per tonne of 62% Fe Amapá is forecast to have:
- an average net revenue after shipping of US$266 million per annum,
- and an average EBITDA of US$136 million per annum.
]===
That EBITDA is very conservative based on today's prices which are around 50% higher than those used in that calculation.
===[
The JRP schedule contemplates the majority of the historic liabilities will be paid from free cash flow in years 5 to year 17 of operations, which represents a discounted NPV10 debt value of approximately US$106 million. The JRP also caps the trade creditor liabilities.
]===
2024. $136m - minus CapEx repayments, and minus around $40m in historic debt repayments.
Estimate of historic debt repayments is my own take. If an average is used the $40m is less.
So depending on Fe prices and the ramp up to full production we might see cash flow to KDNC in 2022 and probably by 2024. But as I said, it might be beneficial overall at that point to reinvest in the project to double the 5.3m ktpa. Of course there might be no harm in taking some cash out then if this is more beneficial to us than reinvesting. Perhaps we'll use it to take us to 49%?
Ob.
.... I'm sure you'll forgive me if I refer you to my earlier (personal) assessments on the answers from your calculator of many numbers based essentially on assumptions, guesswork, hype & hope coupled with my trust & faith in our BoD.
Thanks @degsie. Fingers crossed! :-)
@Bannor. It's worth running through the numbers if you believe it's 7 years before the project has free cash flow. By my reckoning it could be 2023/4 depending on the CapEx debt repayment schedule, and Fe prices at the time. We'll be wanting to reinvest it though to increase the ktpa if this is an option. But even if it is as far away as 7 years, I'm pretty sure our share price will rerate significantly on the way to full production making equity raises less and less painful. Are you able to follow my calculations?
What I mean was ... we all know there was/is a debt settlement plan in play I just didn't think it would suck all the profits out for 7 years & we'd be able to realise a percentage of it to run the company rather than having to sell something cheap or face more dilution....
Obs . W H Ireland included 27% of Amapa discounted by 70% in their valuation.
...personally I was expecting no income taken for a couple of years ... but wasn't expecting it to be what looks like it could be up to 7 years !!
I hope the HAS raise is to buy us out .... hope more that the Sonora JV's go the same route ..... I'll gone & maybe .... just maybe assuming this Minigas BoD don't run the company into the ground first I may look at it again in 6 or so years ... hopefully the BoD will have disappeared & they have a proper one in place.
Official source of the news release at:
"Government signs agreement to resume mining activities in Amapá" (Tuesday, December 03, 2019)
https://www.portal.ap.gov.br/noticia/0312/governo-assina-acordo-para-retomada-das-atividades-de-mineracao-no-amapa
===[
“We have already deposited $ 2.5 million in the judicial reorganization process. As we have the vision of the most sensitive points here in the state, we agreed to enter only if it was possible to fully pay the skilled workers in recovery. There were some conditions to be released. One of them was this Term of Agreement. Now we have to close the negotiation with the bank for the release of these values, ”he said.
]===
I wonder just how close we are to having the banking negotiation signed off? Personally I'm a little disappointed in @Kiran that the above news wasn't announced last week. Hopefully it suggests completion of stage 1 taking our holding to 20% is imminent! :-)
This is great news. Thanks for sharing @CHRH!
@Bannor as well as what @tomcat wrote the reinvestment also corresponds to this from the last RNS related to Amapa: "It is estimated that these stockpiles have a net realisable value of approximately US$ 60 million, which will be reinvested in the restart of the Amapá Project.". It's no surprise to me and is why I've been following the Fe price so carefully recently, that $60m is more likely $70m at today's prices.
Profit from revenue flowing from sale of the stockpiles into the CapEx requirements should mean that the rest of the CapEx can be raised largely as debt rather than equity. There will be some dilution for KDNC for sure, but the higher the Fe price the less the dilution. The rail road was the one piece of the jigsaw that I had most concerns over as it was the piece I believed we had least control over the outcome.
@degsie, remind us again what the WHI discounted valuation for KDNC was based on us owning 27% of the project? ;-)
Ob.
....2,000 jobs and 6,000 indirect jobs....this is going to be a big company.
that seems to concur with what was noted in the last rns bannor...
the jrp schedule contemplates the majority of the historic liabilities will be paid from free cash flow in years 5 to year 17 of operations... which represents a discounted npv10 debt value of approximately $106 million... the jrp also caps the trade creditor liabilities...
that article is from wednesday 4th... and a photo of kiran signing on the dotted line... does this suggest we’ll get the news tomorrow... confirming the two conditions have now been met to release the monies... and transfer of amapa shares into the pba jv co... it’s the 9th tomorrow...
The Pedra Branca Alliance PTE Ltda business group is responsible for the Recovery Plan approved by the São Paulo Court of Justice. With 90% approval by the involved creditors' meeting, the plan, estimated at US $ 200 million (R $ 900 million), aims to revitalize the railroad, recover the port terminal and the mine to resume activities. . As an initial part of the process will be the release of US $ 2.5 million for workers' payment.
With the agreement signed and the decree of annulment of the Amapá Railway (EFA) forfeiture, Governor Waldez Góes underscores the importance of companies reinforcing the care with social issues involved in the Recovery Plan.
“We have done our part and now, on the social issue, there must be a great deal of caution, because after all this time the misuse of the railroad has taken place, and we must be aligned to invest and put the plan to the best possible execution.” , said.
The companies Cadence Minerals PLC, IndoSino PTE Ltda and DEV Mineração must initially pay a portion of the debt left by the former management of the mining activity in Amapá.
The representative of Pedra Branca Alliance, Washington Luiz, spoke about the conditions to make the payment.
“We have already deposited $ 2.5 million in the judicial reorganization process. As we have the vision of the most sensitive points here in the state, we agreed to enter only if it was possible to fully pay the skilled workers in recovery. There were some conditions to be released. One of them was this Term of Agreement. Now we have to close the negotiation with the bank for the release of these values, ”he said.
The plan foresees as a safety measure that all iron ore sold is in the port or mine, and the amounts will be fully reversed in investment in the project. In addition to workers, local lenders are on the priority payment plan, and within 7 years debts will be fully paid.
“We have a total investment forecast of US $ 200 million over the next 5 years. In addition to recovery, there is cash generation and movement in the economy. The project will generate about 2,000 direct jobs and 6,000 indirect jobs, ”said Washington, representative of the group responsible for the Recruitment Plan.
hmmmm years not tears...... although !?!
hmmmm if translated accurately this bit raises some concern though!
The plan provides as a security measure that ALL iron ore sold is in port or mine, and that the figures be FULLY REVERSED in investment in the project. In addition to workers, local lenders are in the payment priority plan, and within 7 years debts will be fully paid.
So another project with several tears to put money in the bank!! Happy for any contradictions !! :-/
This Tuesday (03), the governor of Amapá, Waldez Góes, signed a term of agreement with representatives of multinational companies that will make investments to resume mining in Amapá.
With the approval of the term in the lawsuit, the government gives conditions for release of US $ 2.5 million (approximately R $ 10 million) to pay, before the end of the year, workers and companies that were not received after the stoppage of activities in 2014.