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Yes, you can see Ganfeng are trying to swallow BCN now on the cheap before the project is built and the output increased, smart move by them.
No doubt the "accelerated efforts" increase the value of the Cadence JV portion too as it will be needed sooner. Like I say surprised Cadence hasn't had a similar offer yet given it's so low market cap and China also looking to corner the rare-earths market. This is really starting to heat up but I feel it's just the beginning.
http://www.asianmetal.com/news/data/1665396/7/Shanghai%20Ganfeng%20to%20acquire%20Bacanora
After the deal is finished, Bacanora will accelerate its efforts to put Sonora lithium clay project into production.
@Bannor As usually, well said.
Quite a few missed rns now, there maybe more news they are waiting on before releasing them but tbh I think our position can only improve as time goes on .
...... when did KM say that our Sonora JV was valued in such a cack handed manner, which is now irrelevant if BCN are being bought as the value of the project in production in the years to come versus the value of BCN today under a takeover scenario (whether considered good or not) can no longer be tied together so using BCN's TO value would no longer work regardless IMO ... I recall him stating that he felt the Sonora was in his view worth $200M to us at the same time as he stated Yangi JV was also worth $200M to us (he didn't specify currencies but I assumed CDN & AUS).... this was when he was trying to explain how he felt we could reach (within 3 months from when when he said it) the 2.14p (pre consolidation) target for all their tiered options to vest ..... admittedly they got nowhere near achieving the lower vesting limit let alone the higher but those are the last valuations I recall being mentioned irrespective of whether it was appropriate or realistic at the time...... when/where & on what media did you hear what you've indicated below?
Yes you can easily work out the value of EMH/MMS based on the direct % we hold of them (which may or may not now be what they were in the last RNS's relating to them .... we are due more though so I'd wait & base it on the % to be announced rather than those that have previously been.
Amapa we don't own anything of yet but there are plenty of values being bandied about for when we do - take your pick ... in a fluctuating & volatile commodity one if them might actually be correct at some point IF/AS/WHEN we do actually own some if it.
Oz assets - who can guess if anything if ever ....
We could do with a corporate update with all the news pending (HAS/MMS/BCN) but most importantly & vital we could do with some real progress on the taking of a slice of Amapa.
Hasting market cap. $360m KDNC has 30% interest in 3 Mining Leases, 6 Exploration Licences, and 2 General Purpose Leases. That is a lot of expensive assets. Add that to the pot and we are talking a very big SP.
Wow that’s a spectacular SP all calculated at lowest 3 points of Ganfangs cheeky offer price, historical iron ore price and Anglos impaired valuation
Be bold and hold IMO
Patience my friends Patience
@Ivans - several folks have had a go at KDNC valuations in the past. Someone did a really good (and extremely detailed) job of it but I forgot who it was (apologies, and hopefully someone will refresh my memory!).
Here's what I can contribute:
1) BCN
KM has said in the past that the value of KDNC's JV is 30% of 70% of BCN market cap. Using Ganfeng's "cheeky" offer this will be around £54.6M (70% of £260M = £182M ; Then 30% of £182M = £54.6M)
2) EMH
This should be easy as its 12% (I think) of the EMH market cap. So 12% of £133M = £15.96M
3) Amapa
I had done some calcs recently (feel free to look up historical posts) which evaluated the value of KDNC's 20% ownership ONLY using Anglo's impairment value of $660M. This came out to be around £96M (which BTW would contribute 64.7p on its own to KDNC's share price). Granted this is a very conservative valuation as it does not take into account the recent surge in Iron Ore prices, but I'd rather be conservative in my estimates.
4) Hastings + McArthur
Not doing the detailed calcs, but I'd again be conservative here and add another say £2M for these assets.
5) Copper
Do we have any Copper assets?!
=================================
TOTAL = £168M
KDNC share price = £1.12
=================================
I see the above as a very conservative valuation, owing to:
- Use of Ganfeng's cheeky offer price
- Surging Iron Ore prices
- Use of Anglo's impaired valuation
Happy for everyone's collective thoughts on this.
now, can the expert LTH breakdown estimated values of these assets for KDNC?
we have two lithiums - JV with BCN and also stake in EMH
These two alone if to value currently will be worth several times of our mcap.
then add on top, our iron ore amapa
and then rare earth
what about copper?