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I think what is important is an open mind by investors tbh in that KAV may well need the time to determine what they have drilled. Hopefully something visible to report will be great.
Also, KCB to go at so not short of options. Quite the opposite.
Personally my portfolio would be impacted materially on any move down but my personal strategy is more conviction based than diversification. Won't get them all right but don't need to if the risk reward ratio is strong enough. I can even get most investments wrong and make a profit (albeit thankfully I don't).
My strategy with kav is hold. If it drops I'll stay measured, assess why but likely add on weakness as other investments allow / enable.
Fingers crossed I won't have the chance to add more here though but can only wait.
Atb
JP2000
Re this passage from second hole;
"At end of shift at 0500 today, 17 September, Hole TA2DD002 was at 821m. So far the Company has encountered 170m of continuous Proterozoic mafic/ultramafic rocks. Kavango's senior field geologists have continued to make visual inspection of the core and have reported visible alteration and interstitial blebs of chalcopyrite in different sections of the hole. The lithologies range from coarse grained to extremely pegmatitic, the latter logged in zones that extend 20-30m in thickness"
Would you expect a section like that to be thick enough given what we are looking for (Cu/Ni/PGe/REE)? Of course grades will be the key factor.
Cash
I think it will stop at the planned TD 650m and the reason is the drill is angled north ie away from GRS and away from the feeder zone. Think of a book standing vertically at 60 degree angle, the drill was designed to hit the middle, to go through the thickness and then deeper so any DHEM can get a good look at the structure. One of the key things to look out for on the results other than Cu, Ni, PGE, Au(?) and any grades, is the true thickness of the structure which is a measure of deposition; a few meters thickness isn’t great, +10m commercial, 40-50m bonanza. I’m ignoring the feeder zone and GRS Proterozoic until they drill later in the year.
BCB
I believe, based on what we have seen so far, we will a good outcome here.
Durgh... Angel Heights.........
My money is on the drill going deeper to hit both the Karoo and Proto......
If its a Hit,,,, Angel Falls @ Hole Town is gonna be mine........ :)))))
The current drill is only targeting the karoo. If we don't hit a conductor where expected with this drill then Kavango will have some difficult questions to answer regarding their exploration strategy on the KSZ. If we find a conductor at the right depth but it is not an economic metal then it will be disappointing but not so detrimental to KAVs future on the KSZ as not finding a conductor at the anticipated depth.
Truth machine.......homing in.......
We will all be finding out....
What we have in the great red spot.........
Not been seen for 180m years......
I’m comfortable with my position and risk but am thinking about possible outcomes. We all know what happens if they hit massive sulphides and we all know what happens if they hit nothing. But what if they hit, say, magnetite with disseminated or blebby chalcopyrite and xrf gold, pointing like an arrow at the base of the GRS? Suspect the market would take that as a bad result, but it might actually be another indicator of something even better than hoped
Sorry...and Kav is not a one trick Pony..... Its a 5 trick pony...Going for Copper.. nickel Gold... PGM .. Rare earth elements..
Orange and Legal...... Come on guys...If you cannot afford to lose the investment you should not be investing in any Aim Companies...... period
If you are well researched here you will know the upside and downside and position accordingly.....
Its a given....... A link to a gamblers helpline on the adv board is all that's required.......
And its not a good comparison , its a one trick pony...... .
And its not
Great responses guys.
That was the point of my post, to tease out / verbalize the risks that we face. We know what the rewards should be, but we need to have our eyes open.
I am forever thinking of adding more here, but I have enough for my risk appetite. I will be cursing if we find our norilisk/iocg duo, that I did not invest more, but I am happy with the size of my investment.
But.... Norilisk/iocg on top of each other.... :-)
Hi Orange - the ADV situation is pretty bad. A number of investors sitting on massive losses and wondering how it happened, and most tragically, one poster expressing feelings of suicidal ideation, having promised their loved one (who is unwell) that they would de-risk before the ADV drill results, but then not sticking to that plan. Pretty depressing and emotional stuff.
Having read some of the difficult stories on the ADV bb, I feel a little compulsion to offer some views in response to what you have raised.
1) I completely agree with F79 - risk level, risk appetite, and consequences of losing money, is very much an individual thing.
2) I would NOT risk anything on this drill that you can't afford to lose - this is easier said than done, when the potential upside is so alluring. That's the seduction of AIM.
3) Stick to your strategy - hopefully we all have one?
4) If you have invested a large sum, DO NOT forget to tell any loved ones, who also have a legitimate interest in that money - about the situation.
5) Be prepared for the share price to fall here if the results are not good. MM will have their fun, like they did with ADV. Yes of course KAV can/will bounce back, but that won't happen overnight, so you have to be prepared to tough/wait it out, because nobody can say how long it might take for the share price to recover. (Again, this depends on your average, taking us back to point 1 above).
ADV had its 95% COS. KAV has its 11000 Siemens. Both = Risk.
For me, if you can (comfortably) handle the downside and it won't significantly upset your portfolio, then go for the possibility of significant upside. But if you REALLY don't like the thought of the downside, or it would cause you issues, then de-risk.
All IMO and GLA.
Orange cannon.
Firstly investing and risk is a personal thing. So right and wrong is subjective IMO.
I have a lot more than 3-5% of my portfolio here but I have an element of protection in that I have a decent average plus my position is in a pension pot I've done very well in, and have time to hold as can't retire for some time.
Regarding ADV I have genuine empathy for those who are struggling following those loses.
It does demonstrate what can happen. Personally i believe if KAV don't hit a target then we will likely see a drop, albeit not at the level of ADV IMO.
For the reasons above though I'm going to hold my position for news. KAV also have the benefit of multiple assets and targets so it's not the same as ADV.
I'm still hopeful of a find but open minded. Had the stock risen more ahead of results I may have taken some of my position off the table but not at this price. Even with no result from this drill I think kav are worth this price. It's still early in their journey and I like a lot about KAV.
No harm in taking some off the table if you feel exposed though. Must always be your own decision.
Ngt and atb
O/C ADV was completely binary - all the risk on one drill. KAV has its risk spread over a range of different projects.
I'm happily invested here, with crossed fingers... I have about 3-5% of my portfolio here as I feel the force is strong with kav.
But it can all go wrong....
I've been listening to the portfolio matters you tube channel. Their latest video is 'my worst trade - adv'.
Or how to lose 85% of your money in a day.
We all hope for boom, but you have to be prepared for bust.
One of the most interesting points was people with limit orders in, hoping to catch a dip in the share price ahead of any news.
Well, the news came in, it was bad, the share price plummeted, and those orders got filled on the way down giving those investors instant 70-85% losses. Ouch.
Im feeling a little exposed, but the conviction seems high, building evidence, and other prospects if this fails.....
Thoughts..?