Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Although much of what you say is true, I can't say I agree with the sentiment of your post Kaiser. Any serious article about the future of the platinum industry in SA is of interest to JLP investors. Drawing our attention to such an article is helpful and I did not interpret the post as in any way trying to advance the investment case for our company.
The US along with UK, Australia and several other countries, is manifestly trying to distance itself from relying on Chinese technology etc, and the process works two ways. It is more than probable that China will pursue their own supply of PGMs. They will want to control a fully mechanised operation ( one of the options considered for making Twikenham economically viable again) and a long term investment in that area is speculative but feasible.
Your comments about our current operations are spot on - those are what our company is about but they don't belong on this thread which is a discussion of whether, at some stage, our Tjate assets might regain some value. Maybe, maybe not - it's interesting. I'm sure we all agree that currently, however, investors should assign Tjate zero value when considering the investment case.
Kaiser.
I'm not here to fall out with you. We all know the facts, about Jubilee's processing capabilities and that is why I'am here, waiting for that to develop
If Jubilee can secure a cash influx from the sale of Tjate, Leon has said that he will use the cash to develop the Zambian processing assets even faster. Leon's words, not mine. IMO it is worth speculating on that as it is not priced in to the sp.
Lets see what happens over the next few months.
HighlyGeared,
I prefer to deal in facts than absolute speculation. The facts are thus: we ARE a market leader in processing ROM AND tailings spoil. We have great little assets in South Africa, which are are the scone and butter, but we have monster projects in Zambia that will keep us busy for years and that is our jam and cream.
Yes, we have Tjate, but it is worthless to us as it would cost about a billion pounds just to access the relatively shallow 2 Tjate farms for the 70 million ounces of PGM materials and that discounts the Quartzhill deeper dive and figuring that there are ALOT of mines that don't require a new build and ARE readily available for purchase as they are on care and maintainance, which is just a drain on resources as it costs money to not produce any material, will in all likelihood be snapped up by the Chinese well before Tjate is even a thought on that page. Yes, Quartzhill may get bought out, but you seriously can't be pinning your hopes on that and you definitely shouldn't be telling people on the Jubilee Metals page 'to read between the lines' on an article that neither mentions Jubilee Metals or Tjate specifically and only talks about Platinum Group Metals in general.
Kaiser.
All theories are a massive stretch until they become obvious after the event.
The facts are that Amplat's Twickenham mine has been up for sale, and they are progressing a sale. There are only a handful of companies worldwide who have the cash and the skill set to get a resource the size of Twickenham operational again. The two company's in the article are two of those handful, although the purchaser may not necessarily be either of them. As the down dip of the resource, Tjate's future has always rested on the fate of either Amplat's Twickenham mine, or on the adjacent side, Implat's Marula mine. It has always been obvious that Tjate could not work as a standalone operation, so is reliant on the outcome of either of the adjacent properties.
With Amplats stating that they are hoping to conclude a sale of Twickenham in their second half of the year, it ain't that much of a stretch to suppose that Tjate could be included in any purchase of Twickenham or Marula (which is also up for sale). Indeed Amplats almost bought one of the Tjate farms from Jubilee about six years ago. Although just like the conclusion of that particular deal, it may fall through.
Lets see if Amplats can get a several hundred million dollar deal over the line for Twickenham, and if Jubilee can secure any crumbs from the table.
Sumoskier,
I think what HighlyGeared was alluding to is in this statement.
“Our friends at CNMC also share our conviction that an environmentally-responsible and secure supply of critical metals for clean-air and clean-water technologies – such as copper, nickel, platinum-group metals, cobalt and vanadium – is one of the most important hurdles for humanity to overcome as we collectively embrace a sustainable, low-carbon-energy revolution.”
The mention of Platinum Group Metals is there but that isn't as much a read between the lines, as a massive stretch into wild theory territory.
I do agree though that if the Chinese want to corner the market and supply their own PGM's to their own industry, they will need a big supply and the THREE Tjate farms are a pretty good start, because 2 of the them, without Quartzhill have about 70 million ounces in them, so that would be a great result for them.
HG, had a read, couldn’t see between the lines!
Jammer,
Maybe worth reading between the line on this article re Tjate.
https://www.miningreview.com/battery-metals/ivanhoe-enters-strategic-partnership-with-china-nonferrous-metal-mining/
If something decent on Tjate happened as well, that really would be icing on the cake.I hadn't appreciated that things might be advanced. It certainly makes little sense for a prospective purchaser of Twickenham not to be interested in Tjate as well.
Jammer
Great synopsis of the Jubilee investment case. The only thing I would add is that there is a deal being worked on for Amplat's giant Twickenham mine directly next door to Tjate. Amplats did state during their analysts question and answer session on the 17th Feb 2020 that they are hoping to conclude a deal on Twickenham in the second half of this year. There is every chance that any deal for Twickenham will also include Tjate. The Twickenham deal has been in progress since approx May 2019, so hopefully that will be concluded this year, if not early next year, which would hopefully give Jubilee an additional boost to the projects you have mentioned. Although there is always the chance that the deal might fail.
Have to admit that I'am disappointed that no news has been forthcoming on the commercialisation of the PGM's at DCM, as Leon did state that he was hoping to conclude the permissions several months ago. Hopefully not to long to wait on that front.
It is so easy to get wrapped up in the short term issues whilst being blind to the astonishing transformation that has occurred in the last 12 months. I have no doubt that will start to be reflected in the annual figures due in November, but even more so by the time the first half 2021 figures are delivered. Copper was only spoken about as a possibility a year ago, now we have a credible step up production strategy to reach a target of 24k tonnes of copper cathode a year within 4 years.Who would have thought Leon would be publically predicting that earnings in Zambia will be larger than in South Africa within 2 to 3 years. A year ago the Kabwe tailings project was to be the big one. Just imagine what would have happened to the share price if the project had been significantly delayed as it has with COVID related issues. The fact it is now just an inconvenience, and is in relation to the copper projects of little significance, in itself shows how far Jubilee has come. The management must take a huge amount of credit for not only starting to deliver in general what has been promised, but also to be able to continue operating as though COVID is a minor inconvenience. I am amazed that the small company I knew about 4 years ago is now a trusted partner of one of the biggest chrome mining companies in the world, which is prepared to commit over a million tonnes of its ROM ore a year to Jubilee for a minimum of 3 years and probably much longer. One of my major concerns was the relatively short remaining life of the known resource to feed the PGM cash cow side of the business. No longer. Jubilee will be producing over 1m tonnes of chrome concentrate next year, with not too much exposure to the variable chrome price. The huge feed of upgraded PGM material which will result and be made available to its Inyoni and Windsor operations seems to have slipped under the radar. Now what would complete a very good year? Having a commercial strategy to monetise the PGM upgraded tailings at DCM, a definitive timetable to get the Sable tailings processing underway and meet what must be by now some politically demanding targets from the Zambian authorities. and an exit from the link with BMR, which might be well underway now CB is installed as its new boss. I know Jubilee's 30% shareholding in BMR has in effect enabled it to strongly influence BMR since the lost licence fiasco, but it would be nice to actually see if we can get some tangible consideration back for the £2m of BMR shares Jubilee purchased. In general a very pleased long term shareholder. But please Jubilee get the new PR manager to sort the website out.