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@sunsurfer
Given today's fall, your sell was a wise move.
I have been bearish on IAG since last Nov, when it was becoming increasingly obvious the airlines would not be seeing any substantial summer recovery. I'm amazed the sp has stood up so well. Even the 'pent up demand' argument is starting to wear a little thin, given that many people are being turned-off the idea of international travel when they see 7-hour queues at the airport and all the additional Covid-related hassle involved.
There is no doubt IAG is a well managed company, which will come out of this leaner and more competitive (and, unlike some of the competition, still operating). I think investors are giving IAG a lot of credit for that - perhaps a little too much, in the circs.
I cannot see IAG paying anything approaching its previous divi, until well into the second half of this decade. That's, assuming, in the meantime, none of the other problems that tend to affect this industry from time-to-time (fuel hikes, strikes, terrorism etc) intervene in any major way.
This would have to fall below 150 for me to risk another buy-in.
A 'recovery stock' needs a recovery, which, unfortunately, is still looking a long way off for IAG.
lol... and i was insulted just over a month ago when I said this could go down as far as 160 and now others are predicting the same! having said that i think 170-180 range is more likely since many destination countries will have better jab stats. however, i'm planning to keep the shares for 2+ years so by then it will make a strong recovery if 1. they can keep losses down short/medium term 2. they take to opportunity to buy up other distressed airlines.
Agree with Teddy100, BA is a totally different airline to Easyjet, Ryanair,etc. BA pax aren't all holidaymakers, they carry millions of people going to see family, travelling for work and of course holidaymakers too. I'm sure when results come in the next couple of quarters some will be surprised at how much BA can make, even now. BA management would not put planes in the sky if they were not profitable, at least. I'm confident this sp will eventually go up once the 2 jabs rule comes into effect. The only thing that can push BA down badly, is the appearance of a new strain to make the vaccines ineffective, meaning new lockdowns. The Delta variant is not such a strain. Fear is our biggest enemy.
Yes Teddy, I didn't even reference the Southern hemisphere during winter and of course Aus and N Zealand will be back on line at some point. I'm only a small term smash and grab investor but some people lament too much. When news stories quote industry reps talking about another lost summer, they are referring mostly to their northern hemisphere largely European based market. BA is a true global, and now free of the EU there might be significant opportunities within China. And that is a huge market for growth.
@BIg Blue Good to see that someone on the BB actually understands the IAG business model. IAG offer full global reach and although the summer market is an extra segment it does not define the success of the airline unlike some of their competitors. Do you think that people are going to hold back until next summer? UAE, USA, Asia, Canada, South America and the rest of the world are going to be on the shopping list this Autumn/Winter. IAG have the metal and consumers have the cash. Unlike some subscribers on this BB, I don’t define a 2.5% drop as catastrophic, even my Nex shares dropped more than than that today. Get a grip and if you think it is going to go further South, start shorting. PS: The late summer start is already baked in.
@Jtan
Thank you. what you've said echoes my thoughts although I hadn't put a number on the lows it does feel to me that the sp will go lower only bc routes are not opening up in time for summer and that is either down to variant numbers or politicians or both. neither of which are easily predictable hence why I dabbled over the last two days but then sold as I couldn't see the SP rising anytime soon so thought better to lose a few hundred than a few thousand and come back in at a lower entry point (whatever that maybe i would already be quids in now as I bought at 193 and sold at 192+... with a small loss.
So the only question I have now is when do I come back in and I don't see any rush there so will sit on my hands, tie my thumbs up and wait. Patience is the key, either as a LTH or as a trader wishing to re-enter!!
GLA
Small cloud on the horizon. You are all forgetting the Autumn market, including the one week school holiday which also includes the weekends. Then there will be the long weekend breaks. What's more, I expect that there will be rules allowing a considerable leeway for family holidays during term time as a one off. I expect the mental health issue to rise strong and the usual bad attitude to term time holidays to be suspended. So the Autumn break could be extended one or two weeks ahead of the normal week, and after. A lot of Southern destinations still have a bit of decent sun in the med. Canaries are reasonably consistent all year round. California, Florida, Vegas, Texas, Mexico.... all viable options and maybe more desirable latter in the year with more tolerable heat levels.
And then there is the Christmas shopping, the skiing and a lot of people with early retirement and redundancy cheques and many tourist markets will simply re-invent themselves for a delayed season. Certainly there is going to be some big names crashing and disappearing. The amount of traffic will not makes everybody rich, but there will be income if people are allowed unrestricted travel. So I would say all is not lost, it will just be reduced a little.
Businesses that rise and respond to a changing market survive and can even prosper. Businesses that just expect it be laid at their feet as ever - fail.
@ Rogue & Jtan
As you know I posted a few days ago my buy for xxx shares at circa 193, i sold yesterday at 192.5, few hundred quid loss as I thought this might have bounced but the writing was on the wall... gotta agree with you even if I don't like what you say I think you are both right. Since it is becoming clearer every day that the whole summer will be lost to BA (ergo profits for IAG) do you think this will be going sub 160 given that we are soon going to be heading into the 'low' season and shares typically are only 6 months forward looking... by that calculation this SP will dip significantly to rise again around November/december ready for next summer... what are you thoughts near term (next 2 months) & 6 months from now?
GLA
I am amazed it is 188 watching the board on HL it should a lot less
It looks like the market may have finally dug out their calculators. IAG is still priced for a summer recovery. Given that we are already a third of the way through the summer, with no substantial return to international air travel in prospect, I think this still has further to fall. I don't think we will see any dramatic change until the next IAG trading update though.
Who knows? If the next update is better than awful, as has happened with the last two updates, there might even be an uptick, but it's difficult to see how, unless IAG have found some further (very hefty) cost savings.
Mararab, if you think this will crash, what are you doing on this board? You can short if you wish, you can wait for £1.60 if you wish, that's your choice..I made my choice as I have done my research which i will not share with everyone. thank you.
So, fingers crossed for good amber list rule changes to get my Easy J up [with RR] so I can dump and be ready to buy in IAG ahead of US route news. I've been looking for a decoupling of Easy J and IAG for some time, but all the airlines have more or less been moving as a block. I think the decoupling is about to happen briefly allowing my long awaited switcharoo. However, need to scan the US information and releases. Whilst double vacced UK citizens may not have to quarantine on the return leg, it is all down to when the US will open the routes to UK visitors. EU will be putting a great deal of pressure on the US to stay closed to UK but open to EU. Oh yes they bloody well will be! This is turning back into a political gamesmanship again. Remember when trying to interpret the information, EU will do anything to score points and be ahead of UK. It is critical they do so to create the illusion that Brexit is a failure somehow. They are desperate, they will do absolutely anything!!!
190p could turn into resistance. Unless it closes at 190p or above today
sundezena can you not handle real news get a grip
Retirement plan, a paper loss is a paper loss..This will come back. The doom and gloom brigade are out in force and they are trying to guess the bottom...and they will get it wrong. Just relax and wait. When the markets realise the number of flights and passengers are soaring, this will go above £2 in no time. It's a matter of time. DYOR on number of flights , i have and it's very encouraging.This is another tree shake to get people to leave the building. I am sure the weak will accept a loss very soon. And then , it's up and away. I bagged a few more today at 1.87. I am happy with that. That means I can reach my target quicker and able to sell before the masses. Good luck everyone.
Malta government has put the boot in with quarantine, might be something to do with the market volatility.
Right, time to shut down for the weekend.
Seems little point in looking at the Paper loss getting bigger and bigger on this crap.
Will check later to see where we closed and cry into a can of Fanta :)
Looks like my targets prices and reasons are coming through now despite the naysayers! Still maintain the bottom end could be as far as 165 with 175 very possible. Ill be re-entering sub 185 depending on the bull mood to catch the move.
Q4 will be better, santa rally.
Tell you whats boys this is a hard one to predict where this is going with the current news
Look out for auction shortly, then we'll know
After market news perhaps?
Pro traders smell blood here and Jet2
Holy moly, its capitulation now
Low and behold RR dropping as well umm might see more to drop thoughts any one , p.s my allegiance is making money where you can
Jtan too true bud i was going to come in at 185 but with the current EU block on uk tourists this might be down sub 180 im holding like you could be a nice enty point earner in low out by xmas