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totally silent here and feel the death.
Thank you for Sharing that. I know what you mean. Sometimes you see things and they appear TGTBT. So unless you use real money and complete / you never actually really know. Bizarre state of affairs but everything occurs for a reason and somehow you will have played a part. I am thinking of those who bought in the 4’s 5’s and 6’s. Those are surely locked in now. Only to be handed over for an Asset Sale or ridiculous temporary Over Valuation (Won’t happen IMO). The Dividend will further lock in those Buys.
They have to deliver on the Dividend.
Fastfood,
I dont intend to sell out at this level - however, I noticed that the offer price was temporarily below the bid price and I wanted to see if I could make the trade i.e. sell out and buy back at a lower level which I did. I agree that now is a risky time to trade with more news imminent. Anyway - good luck and lets hope we see the value we think there is.
Tony. I can see this moving up 25% in a week so I wouldn’t dare be Selling in the 8’s. But we all have our own freedom to decide.
I am thinking about Serenity and how the BOD have played it down. I’m thinking about how they were forced into staying alive by their backers and moving into Canada. Deals just appeared and so did the money. More money. When there was none. Money was not a problem. The deals were done. The Insurance Policy could be realised. Can we make a Profit from the North Sea ? (We’ve lost lots of cash / millions so far) The U.K’s 99% Energy Security has positions waiting to be filled. All to be revealed Starting Q2.
volume volume volume. sign of build up position.
Fastfood,
Not only a Philosopher but now the voice of reason - a man of many talents ! Anyway whilst you were meditating - I just pulled of a bit of arbitrage to cover the cost of another 4 pack of Magners. The two transactions below were mine - but interestingly - the "buy" was actually a sell and the "sell" a buy. No wonder everyone is confused with the reporting of the trades.
09-Mar-21 16:20:02 8.23 100,000 Buy* 8,230
09-Mar-21 16:19:06 8.20 100,000 Sell* 8,200
Good question GGG - from prior interviews 0.4p was the number sounded out - £2.8m/$4.0m. I think that was 10% of the share price at the time. We only had the Canadian assets for just over 3 months. If FCF was estimated about $17m at the time, then $4m/25% sounds about right. Hopefully, like you say, a little uplift with +ve POO numbers etc.
Keep Calm Keep Calm. All friends here. All in it together. Share Opinion.
Fastfood,
There was no lip - I asked an innocent question to understand the relevance of the post. Kane clarified that it was nothing more than to highlight that deals were being made in the North Sea. If it came across differently - then my apologies to Kane.
I've said this before - the psychology on these boards is fascinating - had I responded to Kanes post and said great, this puts a valuation on I3E of 12p a share. No one would have batted and eyelid, Id've have got half a dozen likes and there would be a follow up discussion on whether it should be actually 14 or 16p a share. You post something that is not in line with the prevalent view and it is thought of as negative, de-ramping or told to go take a break and unscramble your head !
I think it was Carl Icahn that said that he only paid proper attention to Contrarian Views - with the reasoning that he would learn nothing from someone telling him what he thought he already knew. However, a contrarian view gave him the opportunity to re-test his thinking. I dont understand why some take such offence at a post offering a Contrarian View.
Also a lot of time spent here talking about value and then looking at Companies that couldn't be more different from I3E. Logically you would think it easier to select a number of Companies that were as close a match as possible and try to factor in the differences to come up with a "current market value / estimate". Just sayin - but everyone is of course free to post whatever they like whilst hopefully being respectful.
Cheers ff!!
In Tony’s defence he did later go on to say
“I agree with Kane that this demonstrates deals are happening in the North Sea which you would assume bodes well for I3E”
GLA!!
And I don’t understand Kane getting lip from Tony about North Sea deals. Fact is it proves up that U.K. 99% Self Sufficient in Energy have no intension of reducing that figure and thus Investment and Ownership has to be robust. Points towards a need to sure up and be Risk Focused on replacing existing depleting Fields. The 99% is good for us and our Prospect. Cheers Kane.
Hi Tony, I agree the read across to Zennor has little relevance to us unless we hit a reasonable amount of oil with Serenity. It may then become a somewhat useful reference point for valuing i3e's Nth Sea assets. Regarding 15p jump if Serenity appraisal is successful, I do think this is possible, however it would obviously depend on our sp at the time (for instance if we're still quite under-valued), and how much oil we prove up. If we're sitting on 12p, poo is in the mid to high 50's, and they hit +100m recoverable (and we retain 30%), then I do see this sort of a re-rate initially. As for any bid by Bybrook, I simply don't see it happening first of all. And if they did make a bid I highly doubt they could get other IIs and/or PI support to accept 10p when we're grossly under-valued at 8.2p. As you've pointed out this is my opinion, but it's certainly not something that I'm thinking could happen now or in the near future. I do however think a lot about the divi and how much longer we need to wait for a f/o agreement. The former I wonder about how much they'll pay for the maiden dividend, and hope they decide to reward their long suffering PIs with a generous first payment. I tell myself the latter is taking more time because i3e didn't want to give up their acreage for peanuts, and now with poo so strong they're playing hard-ball. For all Graham and Majid's flaws and past mistakes one cannot say they're not good deal makers. I'll take off my rose tinted glasses now. GLA
“Sheeeeee ‘ll beeeeee ... comin round the Mountain when she comes!!”..
500k just gone through!!
2nd 332k buy today!
barnyards... Regarding tonynorstrom1, although sometimes needlessly over negative. I have come to realize is the most well researched poster here so deserves respect. We're all bullish so no need to fallout.
fu_king hell - I regret waking you up now !
"who knows what will happen"
exactly Tony, so why don't you take a speculative day (or three) off and give your frazzled head a rest :-)
16 dividend days and counting
tick tock
GGG,
My comments on Bybrook are as things stand now - i.e. our current SP at 8.2p and prior to any FO (the status of which by the way has not changed much in over 2 years though I agree - recent updates have been more promising).
You comments on valuation are presumptuous and are merely your opinion as is the case for my comments above.
"But this offer would have to be upward of 20p for them to consider it" - this is an opinion and probably incorrect. As per the admission document, the minimum price they have to pay in a "Mandatory Bid" is the maximum price they paid for shares in the previous 12 months. This is probably 5p. The bid price is of course is subject to Shareholder approval, but with Institutions holding 65% at 5p, its anyones guess what it will take for them to approve an offer. I dont know what it would take but If I was a gambling man, with our SP at 8.2p, I would stake money on an offer being considerably less than 20p. Now if we got a FO and the SP were to significantly rerate - then you would have to revisit that calculation.
And no - I'm not kidding !
GGG,
I think you have misunderstood the question:
"It goes to show what a f/o could be worth just on announcement". The thread was about Zennor and my question was how does this deal relate to the value of a potential farmout of Serenity - imo very little directly other than assets in the North Sea have a potential value which was known anyway.
"I'm not sure why you don't think there will be an immediate jump...?" - To clarify - i'm of the opinion that there will be an immediate jump somewhere in the 2-4p range on announcement of a FO. Maybe a little less if the terms dont meet expectation and maybe a little more if they exceed. I dont think there will be an immediate jump of 15p on a successful drill at Serenity - there will obviously be a jump but imo the full value will be acquired over time.
Tony I agree that mgt probably wouldn't hive off the Nth Sea assets. These assets give them another safe jurisdiction, but more importantly a lot more oil to balance the portfolio. I also agree that Bybrook could cash in for the right offer. But this offer would have to be upward of 20p for them to consider it. If we're paying a strong divi, plus we secure a f/o that strikes oil our sp will be sitting near 20p so any offer will need to be north of this number. As for Bybrook offering 10p and convincing other shareholders to go for the offer, are you kidding? Who the f@ck would agree to that when they know they can get at least double the amount? Let's be serious here, once the divi is announced we'll be 10p. If it's a generous first divi we'll be closer to 12p. Once we agree a f/o we'll be closer to 15p. Once we start drilling we'll be closer to 18p. and if we strike 100m barrels of oil we'll be closer to 30p. At what point would shareholders agree to an offer of 10p when our current sp is over 8p and sp accretive news is over-due on multiple fronts. We often align on our thinking but I just don't see a Bybrook take-over happening, and if it did it would be for double what you're suggesting (which is still only £140m).
I dont mind if Bybrook would like to sell over £300m.
Tony, firstly every time a f/o is announced by a junior partner their sp jumps. Secondly, if we negotiate a free carry on 3 drills that's worth about £35-40m, which provides an actual, immediate value that can be placed on the f/o agreement. If we use 50% of the drilling value this is equal 2.5-3p to our sp. Thirdly, a f/o with a major partner indicates drilling is actually going to take place, which in our case will be far sooner than most agreements and potentially as early as the Summer weather window. The earlier the more immediate value can be ascribed to the f/o as shareholders don't need to wait long to find out whether there's a significant amount of oil in the field. Finally, if the f/o is targeting upward of 100m recoverable boe it means a success story could double or triple our sp. Quite a good risk : reward play if you already have no debt, free carry, 10,000boepd throwing off fcf in a safe jurisdiction, and paying a divi.
Tbh I'm not sure why you don't think there will be an immediate jump...?
who knows what will happen - I dont think Management will be looking for a split or selling off the NS assets - I think they they see more potential in developing the assets - both the NS and Canada.
I think a danger though is the Bybrook - with their holding including warrants - they could decide to cash in if the right offer comes in.
Also if they were to excercise warrants and make a bid for the Company. Hypothetically if they were to offer 10p say, if the other Institutions are on board - they have 65% of the vote, not to mention other recent investors who got in close to 5p. 100% on your money in 6 months would be pretty handsome. It would not matter what the PI's think the value of I3E is.
Someone could takeover and split the uk and Canadian assets realising value far north of £55m