Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I agree with this post, dolphin are the most likely option. I would hope for a fair deal with RRE but i think that is unlikely especially after this weeks bloodbath, RRE probably have a lot more opportunities available to them
Good summey ggg.
A dolphin deal which is not probable as we are going to farm out soon, might be the best and looks like dolphin are interested in such deal, but it wont be a partnership, i3e will keep its 100% ownership, dolphin will develope the field and will get royalty's.
Every 1% royalty is 50m$.
Closed period doesn't count for much IMO. Followed companies before that have used this as an excuse for management to not buy shares with their own cash and to keep the lights on/keep drawing a salary.
I think reading between the lines you aren't that hopeful. May be a bounce on some news but that's it. The conundrum is whether to buy sufficient to bring down my average enough that a 100% (as opposed to 1000%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) uplift brings me back above water.
Gamblers dilemma - chase the loss or leave the table.
I would describe our bod as greedy, arrogant, and incompetent. I don't think they're crooks, but that will be revealed to us in the not too distant future.
Hi Flabby, to be honest I think there's a couple of ways forward, but it will require extremely good negotiation by Graham and Majid for us not to get heavily diluted by way of ownership of one or both fields.
I think a f/o is the best way forward for both fields however for reasonable terms it will require OGA agreeing Serenity is connected to Tain, and/or there's interest in our acreage from more than just Repsol / RRE. Otherwise I agree with Wmsjames post that we'll be rinsed by RRE and will give up +50% of Serenity for one, maybe two (best case) free drills in Serenity. Sad thing is worst case scenario here is still better than where we currently sit.
The other way forward is we get Dolphin Drilling to agree to some form of partnership in Serenity for 1-2 appraisal drills. This would mean we can move forward and hopefully prove-up the field, with a view to raising capital closer to 40p further down the line. It would require a leap of faith by Dolphin, however they're more likely to have an idea of the size of prize than most. I also think the 'leak' came from their team so in a way they owe us something.
As for Liberator, I'm not sure the best way forward with this conundrum. There's definitely a deal to be done, but I think it's highly unlikely we'll be able to raise the +$50m to develop the 11m barrels ourselves. No-one will part with that money given what Majid has done with the appraisal money invested in the field. We could try to bring in a partner, however that didn't work the last time and we've gone backwards in terms of reserves after we drilled two holes into nothing. So to be honest I think the 11m barrels isn't worth all that much. Maybe we could get $20m if we were to sell but can't imagine anyone would want to partner us unless they take next to everything. As I've said before Majid & Graham should be quartered for what they've done here.
The only good news is we have two fields with hydrocarbons. The bad thing is we still don't have a clue as to how much we have in both fields. We have a negative balance sheet. We have a bod that no-one really believes in or trusts (not great for raising capital). And we're operating in an environment that is quickly turning against oil (long-term), and in the immediate term is severely depressed with no horizon on when it will change, all thanks to a f@cking super-flu (feels ridiculous even typing this). So overall I'd say Graham and Majid have got us in quite a pickle.
Is it really run by crooks or did they just have an unlucky drill bit?
This post is taken from RRE board, i asked the question iF RRE were interested in I3E ? I thought it was a good reply
Andrew isn’t a speculator he won’t deploy capital on I3E. By its nature it’s a junior explorer and AA has stated multiple times he is not in the business of undiscovered hydrocarbons. If any transaction occurs between I3E and RRE it will be exclusively for Serenity which is a discovered hydrocarbon field near (not yet proved to be connected but could be) to RRE’s 50% owned Tain field. I can tell you right now that if I3E do sell they will not be on the strong side of any negotiation given their current state. AA is also a bargain hunter so he will only buy if it offers extreme value to RRE as demonstrated by all of his previous transactions - whatever he buys is skewed to RRE’s benefit that’s how he turned a 50p IPO to current SP with only 4-5 transactions.
Good post GGG; why don't you email Majid your thoughts as would love to hear what the so and so has to say about everything. Seriously, he should be told what we all think
Do you think we are reliant on Serenity now or can Liberator still be developed by the CO?
Juxtapose, what you've said is nothing other than head in the sand rubbish. Majid is a f@cking joke. If you want any rational metrics, just take a look at the share price, even before Coronavirus took off. Yes he managed to get finance sorted in a creative manner, although I think our resident banker Graham is probably more responsible for this. But then look what they did with it. His job isn't going out and convincing people 'there's gold in them hills'. It's about proving there's gold in the f@cking hills that's his job. And if he cannot do that, he's either incompetent, and/or a fraud. So far mgt has taken money that was primarily raised for Liberator with a bonus drill for Serenity. They drilled at edges and missed targets on Liberator. And they got lucky with an exploration well at Serenity. So we have nothing for Liberator and an un-appraised well at Serenity for £40m. You telling me that's a good result? By their own words Liberator should be producing oil by now. Liberator drills were almost certainties. Perhaps now you can understand why we have dropped from over £1 to 6p? Look at what they've said, and look at what they've delivered. At the moment the market judges them as abject failures.
You have people on here that have lost over 90% of their money. I'm 70% down after averaging down hugely. I don't give two ****s if we farm-out or get taken out so long as we get to double digits again. That way I can then take a £50k haircut and leave this company and its joke management. They have destroyed all value by getting greedy with other people's money. And they stood by when we had insider trading happened not once, but twice. They owe it to their investors to organise a f/o or sell the lot for +10p if necessary and crawl into a f@cking hole somewhere. Majid has less shares than I do. At least Graham has skin in the game, although I wouldn't be surprised to find out Graham has sold all his shares given the way this company has been managed and the level of trust I have in the guy.
Juxtapose,
"The word is "rational" - noted, however "Judged by any rational metric, this is a sterling performance of a team determined to succeed." does not appear to be supported by any important metric I have seen and therefore I would propose as an irrational statement. Just my opinion.
"You don't appear to be supporting the farm out taking place at the moment." Not correct, It maybe existing shareholders only hope of extracting any value from here - we await with baited breath.
"You object to the placement and debt financing of 2019" - not at all, you have made this up. However your statement "he managed to raise £45 million in a relatively non-dilutive way". Share count has gone from 42m to 177m (if options are exercised). If someone added 3/4 of a pint of water to a 1/4 of a pint of beer - I think I would call that pretty diluted.
"You don't seem to acknowledge any of the innovative financing along the way" - Give me the baby, not the labour pains.
"So, tell us how you, sitting at Majid's desk, would have financed I3E or would you have just sat there and done nothing other than draw a fat salary for doing nothing, the curse of AIM?" It's always easy to criticize after the fact and with benefit of hindsight - however, many have stated the opinion several times (including myself) that the BOD have handled the news flow pretty poorly and dropped the ball on more than one occasion. This is directly responsible for the lack of confidence in the market and hence the current SP. Also the previous equity raises were made at what many of us at the time felt at were at depressed prices again due to the handling of the news flow (IMO).
Tony
The word is "rational"
SP's on AIM are rarely rational: therein lies the opportunity.
You don't appear to be supporting the farm out taking place at the moment.
You object to the placement and debt financing of 2019.
You don't seem to acknowledge any of the innovative financing along the way.
So, tell us how you, sitting at Majid's desk, would have financed I3E or would you have just sat there and done nothing other than draw a fat salary for doing nothing, the curse of AIM?
Try over $20 from last month highs of $71 and todays lows of $50.6
another metric we have not spoken about for a while - Oil Price has gone down +/-$10 / BBL in the last month or so.
Juxapose,
"Judged by any rational metric, this is a sterling performance of a team determined to succeed."
WTF - I'll have what ever your smoking - it must be good sh_t!
Here's a few metrics for you :
Pre Majid (CEO)
SP 40 -60p
Market Cap 20 - 30 M
Debt 0
Share Count +/- 40M
To elaborate on my earlier post, destitute.
Majid Shafiq was appointed to CEO in October 2018, with his first full season in 2019.
In a difficult environment, he managed to raise £45 million in a relatively non-dilutive way, sufficient to enable the active 3 well drilling program and keep the company going in this year, including performing essentials such as the survey, to keep momentum rolling.
2020 has kicked off with the survey, to be completed in Feb, and the data room already opened to try for the least dilutive form of financing, a farm out.
Along the way, there have been creative financing deals, including the latest collaboration with the drilling rig.
Judged by any rational metric, this is a sterling performance of a team determined to succeed.
There are/have been plenty of AIM swindles out there, such as Kefi with not a spade in the ground after 6 years, big salaries and bigger lies, BMR, Ctag and a raft of small oil companies funding management's lifestyle, but I3E has progressed steadily over the last 18 months, despite setbacks.
If this gets to 5p I might buy in again.
Nonsense, destitute.
This is a reasonably genuine company, with a decent discovery out of the 2019 drilling campaign and close to infra structure.
No final judgement can be made until progress on the farm out is disclosed.
The shares are largely in the hands of PIs, in nominee accounts: Lombard and Miton exited at an SP well above the current, which is why we know that even PIs largely have averages much above the current SP.
The volumes here are pocket money: the SP gets taken down, but generate insufficient selling to make the game worth the candle. My assumption on this manufactured SP is that the money is being made on spread betting?
I was thinking on the cheap as being £25 to 30 mill
That is all well and good, provided that everyone bought the "pizza" at 7 pounds, but that is not the case here: we have 7p on minuscule volume and we know that our largest shareholder paid 35p and many have averages over 30p.
The difficulty for the offeror is finding a price at which more than 50% of the shareholders (to gain control in a hostile bid) say yes and that is probably north of 20p.
In any company purchase, of course, the junior loan note debt has to be added in and at that point, this is no longer "for nothing"; RRE/Repsol would be looking at a £40/50 million investment. They might just prefer to take a % for funding an appraisal well at $13 million: less reward, but less risk, but that all goes back to the size of the prise and COS.
The SP will double or triple ? Time to re mortgage the house then..
So far it’s certainly doubled or tripled down. What’s the word for 4 x down ? Arhh yes Quadrupled down. 5 x down ? I dunno that one.
For Long term holders it’s been awful. Deliver Value to SH ? Buy more then I suppose ...
80% of the shares are in the hands of ii and insiders so you have only 20% on the market, if someone just try to take a bite the sp will double or triple, so as good as it sounds in theory its not realistic.
Harold,
I'll use mi Pizza analogy for you to make it simple - You bought you Pizza for 7 pounds and as you leave the shop - someone offers you 8 pounds - you take it - simples.
a cheeky bid imho