Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I must admit to being mildly perplexed by the reaction of the SP to today's news - it seemed pretty positive to me.
I am left wondering whether some with short term horizons were hoping for a buyout before construction, and so sold out because the time to value has increased beyond what they were happy with.
As for myself, here since 2017, so what's another couple of years!
The inflation risks and availability of debt finance will be a barrier for any new Nickel projects going forward. That should put HZM in a strong position when we start production as it will restrict the flow of any new projects, adding to supply deficits.
Ant in the DFS A has a 28 year mine life so no problem with resource on this one.
Agreed both mines producing multi multi billion co but it's academic we'll not get there. I am hoping for a valuation that factors in A2 (call A1+A2 $1.5bn sale value at that point?) without it getting built and then add a bit for Vermelho DFS ($0.5bn?) for a $2bn sale 2024. £1.5bn in real money 30p fully diluted.
Some of us have been topping up for a while now.....
Begining to regret not taking the 9.97p sell many months back....
Which is, & before the bricbats irony....
But this one really has been flat for a long time now....
I normally receive emails when an RNS is issued, didn't get one today, anybody else?
At least we can top up at this price for a bit longer.
Should be a champagne day - currently the Prosecco is flat!
That 1m buy at 7p might give this a push upwards...
$23k
Essentially, when you look across at any other company with 50-60kt output per year (and I get we're not there yet) the valuations are light years from here.
V has a 38 year lifespan and A at least 10.
The price is crazy for a company with finance in place and breaking ground.
Ukraine and Nickel.....hmmmmm
https://twitter.com/AndreaHotter/status/1527180074230890498?s=20&t=tUGOp5f1KY91-HNxl2zGyA
To be fair 2 bags (from here) gets us to $1bn. That's around my expectation for first production - 20p area (before Vermelho and a clear path to A2 which obviously can add to this).
Ant what nickel price are you basing $2-3bn on? Just I don't think you get 100% of NPV in the valuation. Notwithstanding we all agree there are good times ahead at some point we just don't know exactly when. My expectation is a sale > $1bn and hopefully significantly above, eventually ($2-3bn is clearly in this bracket). 30p with shares in issue would be around the $2bn mark allowing for options, convertables etc (I think).
Russian-Ukrainian s war seems a critical factor in Nickel price, Russia produces 7-17% World Nickel supply, probably Chinese the main buyers , Ukrain also produces steel with Western buyers, Disruptions in these countries will keep driving Nickel prices up. Moreover, recent $100k per tonne shoot in nickel price suggests, eventually it will be up again.
LFP - The phosphate part of that battery is under pressure too. Agricultural requirements for fertiliser is products is going through the proverbial roof. So at least short term LFP options are also impacted.
Never a dull moment with Ni..... That's certainly true.
The SP here though is however obdurate in its desire to not move up. Even of positive news as this morning's.
Really has become a long game here it seems. The days of FOMO forcing buying seem well behind it for now.
Back to bottom of draw and sleep here till production, nevermind first ground break it seems .... Zzzzzzz
"One potential concern is that if the Ni price gets too high there will be powerful I'm encentives to seek other supplies or to reduce demand"
That's already happening. LFP batteries are the dominant type in the Chinese EV market and are becoming increasingly accepted elsewhere. The last time we saw a spike in the price of nickel we saw a move from 316 to 304 and then from 304 to 200 series stainless so yes I agree a run away nickel price is not good for anybody in the long term. The recent spike, however, has been short-lived and there appears to be a gradual deflating back down to a more sensible and sustainable level at the moment. Is this due to restricted supply coming out of Russia being offset by a slow down in China's economy? Russia's nickel supply is almost exclusively Class 1 whereas China's nickel consumption is predominantly Class 2 so that complicates things somewhat.
Which ever way you look at it there's never a dull moment with nickel.
TDT
I suspect that we are just at the beginning of the final upward phase of the Lassonde curve - the value will be increasingly reflected in the SP as construction progresses towards first production. Not likely to be as smooth an upward curve as you see in all of the example Lassonde curves on the internet though, and still likely to be bumps in the road along the way.
The value is there though, in terms of the value of the nickel in the ground - and it does look as through the nickel market is beginning to recover it's poise following the short squeeze at the beginning of March.
(One potential concern is that if the Ni price gets too high there will be powerful I'm encentives to seek other supplies or to reduce demand)
Ant1986
Echo that.
TDT
mjb606
You can't help but wonder, sometimes, what its going to take to get this moving. When you compare Horizonte to an empty vessel like Eurasia with a similar market cap it does leave you wondering. What other junior explorer is out there with clearerly defined resource and reserve statements on huge high grade deposits of a metal that's in high demand with completed engineering studies that's fully permitted with all the finance tied up and in place and II's on the share register to die for. And that's before you get into the safe jurisdiction, adjacent infrastructure, ESG compliant issues. It just doesn't make an awful lot of sense sometimes but then again that's the market for you.
It's still only 08.45 so plenty of time to get going.
TDT
A bag or two has taken the company to £260m.
Once the metal is coming out and sold, the sales on a PE basis mean it should trade at $2-3bn.
There is a huge gap to close before production!!
In investing terms of course 2 years is not long to wait. I know many here have waited longer (me included) but we've seen a decent rerate in the last 3 years also so people have had the opportunity to exit in profit or 'slice'. We've had a bag or two from a couple of years ago, at least a bag or two ahead in the next 24 months is my expectation. It's not bad work if you can get it to double your money in these timeframes.
Market is in doldrums, not dropping is a good result in these markets. The news is great news but expect the rerate to happen closer to production personally (and when we have news on Vermelho). Not being negative just reset personal expectations to reap rewards when my investments are producing - posted this on another board also. News seems to get sold off at the moment but production/revenues don't lie. We of course are likely to get taken out around that point or even before but that's where I'm expecting the real jam to be. Horizons around end 2023 then into 2024 Horizonte things will get interesting (and the bids may come) - assuming mine build is executed to the numbers. GLA
@TDT: "At last. If that doesn't move the dial, at least a little bit, nothing will."
Looks like the dial is still stubbornly refusing to move so far this morning, so I hope that your "nothing will" isn't correct!
And possible Vermelho news over the next 12 - 18 months, a possible game changer. Lovely.
Glad this is my only junior miner pre-production. Rocky roads ahead for those looking to raise now and then enter the procurement/construction phase....