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Oh bother. Hit 'send' too quick.
I don't know where I got the idea that ESP VSD equipment commissioning was previously supposed to be in Jan / Feb. But I know I didn't dream it. I've a feeling it was in the quarterly report from November last year. Or maybe the interim financials. Or some other document. But back-checking all such stuff is tedious, I haven't saved all of it, and anyway it's the past. Doesn't alter what is now.
JoeSoap,
"So when did they get more information to decide that they would not need to commission the ESPs?"
Easy. When the wells were actually put onto production via the FPSO. Performance was even better than during the initial DST's, indicating that the DST periods weren't long enough to fully 'clean up'.
"But the whole story of why they have still to be commissioned is a bit of a conundrum, because they had planned to use them from the outset "
Yes, and that puzzles me as well. Sure, as someone else has posted, one would have expected the actual 'surface gubbins' to have been factory-checked prior to installation on the boat in Dubai. And also for some of the relevant technicians were down there at the time, ensuring that power from the FPSO's generators were properly plumbed in to the VSD's.
Nevertheless, it's not all plug and play. There's a big difference between (possibly) running the VSD's against 'dummy loads' in a shipyard, and checking that all's well when plugged intothe pumps themselves 2000 metres undeer the seabed, with all the extra cabling from the boat to the wellheads, etcetera, etcetera.
I suspect what MIGHT have happened was that the results immediately post-foil were so good that the job was postponed and put off, rather than interrupting the initial flow-testing. But of course, that's just guesswork. But now, obediently obeying Murphy's Law to the letter, now it's (maybe) found that having at least one ESP tested and running, CV19 has prevented the extra required one or two people to go out to ensure all's OK ! And that's all it would require. One or two people.
Again, this is just blue-sky thinking on my part. But it fits. But just like a piece of featureless sky in a jigsaw puzzle. If it fits, it may possibly be the right one.
DC retrieved a previous ESP post 28 May 2020 15:59. I too recall that post, but I do not recall any similar communication from HUR, who have been happily stating that they are not using them.
Yes, it was in Edison's update, "The commissioning of the electrical submersible pumps (ESPs), planned for commissioning during Q220, has been delayed as a result of restrictions in manning levels due to COVID-19. This will be carried out as soon as practicable and is an aspiration for 2020."
HUR said in the CMD, Lancaster -- next steps (pg 23)
-Further long term testing to optimise well performance and commission ESPs
but no indication of timeline.
Then in Finance outlook, pg43 the footnote reads:-
"Bluewater costs are those within the Bareboat Charter agreement and fixed costs do not include workovers, which would only be required if ESPs were to be used."
and therefore is not allowed for in the annualised Opex per barrel cost, which it surely would be if it was an intended charge for this year.
But the whole story of why they have still to be commissioned is a bit of a conundrum, because they had planned to use them from the outset according to Section 2.8.2 Artificial lift of the ES (pg36) as "The natural flow rates indicated that unaided production of oil would not be sufficient to make the development economically viable without potentially damaging the integrity of the reservoir".
So when did they get more information to decide that they would not need to commission the ESPs?
However, the 6March RNS quoted DrT "In addition, the Lancaster EPS is currently producing at 20,000 barrels of oil per day and I look forward to providing an update at the Capital Markets Day on 25 March 2020." which was the goal set and oft used in PI's offloading calculations. Looking at the CMD data it can be seen to be short-lived. I hesitate to suggest a timely PR stunt, but opportune certainly, and there was nothing in the CMD to suggest why it had not been possible to maintain that level, but the guidance had been 'massaged' to 18k 'ongoing' and just 17k for the year, from the 18k in the FY Report. [Remember it was going to be 20k July CMD]
Although, checking the Finance slide 18mbopd is 6.6mmbbl for 2020, so it was not downgraded, nor Opex increased...
This unexpected water is starting to play havoc with bopd from both wells; compare and contrast with "To date, water cut has not impacted on production guidance" in the FY Report .
If only HUR had said #6 was in line with the water production that had been seen over the previous weeks, rather than #7z which they then shut-in.
jimo
joe
proverloop,
Your post from Thursday:
"The plan was to commission the pumps, but restrictions on non essential personnel coming offshore at present has put this on the back burner. I can't see Hurricane actually using them anytime soon,(once they are commissioned) if the well or wells are flowing naturally, especially as we are still in the testing phase."
This is a technical thing which has been vexing my poor little brain for a couple of days now ! But at least it keeps me away from thinking about the SP, which is simply depressing.
My view differs from yours, in that I believe getting one of the ESP's on 7z into play asap might be a good idea. But not (when opened up) to increase production rate. But instead, to act as a 'stabilizing factor' as to that well's flow, which we've been told had become 'unstable', and that due to the excellent pressure communication factor with 6, risks making that well 'unstable' equally. Hence the shutin of 7z for now.
Right now, producing naturally, flow is going through the 'Y bypass' AROUND the ESP's. So the only 'limiting control mechanism' for that flow is the wellhead choke on the seabed. So if (as I suspect) the well is 'slugging' due to the water-cut, all sorts of weird pressure-transients are taking place all along the production string, including below the packer. This could be potentially damaging, especially if some sort of harmonic set itself up, leading to positive feedback.
However, with one of the ESP's on 7z was kicked in, it might (nb 'might', just opinion) act as a 'second choke', a lot closer to the OH than the wellhead choke. In other words, run the ESP, giving the same bottomhole drawdown pressure (ie no flow increase), but against a far more pinched-in wellhead choke setting.
I've a feeling this might not only tend to 'stabilise' things a bit (because you wouldn't have those transient pressure differences going up and down 2000 metres of tubing), but also by the oil / water mix going through the pump, it may homogeonise the 'mixture' somewhat, reducing 'slugs' of water, followed by 'slugs' of oil / gas running through the system.
Just thinking aloud here. Might be wrong.
Like others here, I thought the ESP VSD's were supposed to be in the comissioning phase during Jan / Feb. That was before this 'lockdown' idiocy. I hope it gets prioretised as things ease.
"Wasn't there something about GOR as well which was restricting ESP's working? And/or something to do with oil flowrates fluctuating"
Simples - Two phase pumps. We already thought of that.
The plan was to commission the pumps, but restrictions on non essential personnel coming offshore at present has put this on the back burner.
I can't see Hurricane actually using them anytime soon,(once they are commissioned) if the well or wells are flowing naturally, especially as we are still in the testing phase.
Wasn't there something about GOR as well which was restricting ESP's working? And/or something to do with oil flowrates fluctuating
The announcement that the ESP's have not been commissioned reminded me of a post by someone claiming to have news on their forthcoming commissioning . I have now found it:
Posted 11/12/19 by Jackswan
"Afternoon all. I’m new to this site so bare with me ;) Been trading a few years but relatively new compared to many of you.
I have been told for certain the VSD commissioning engineers will be in board for ESP switch on early Jan. With that in mind I’m surprised the amount of negativity for HUR."
Clearly it did not happen .
All I can say, is when I commissioned ESP VSDs it was under the presumption it was worth undertaking, not just a gamble. I’ve only got small amount in this but have been Following this site last few months, trying to learn something ;)
Interesting if true. Outside my experience but I imagine that means ramping up production to 20k bpd or mb more.
Afternoon all. I’m new to this site so bare with me ;) Been trading a few years but relatively new compared to many of you.
I have been told for certain the VSD commissioning engineers will be in board for ESP switch on early Jan. With that in mind I’m surprised the amount of negativity for HUR.