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Well said JAdam, I just topped it! The sp is rediculous atm
Easy 5% to bag first thing on monday morning, instead of leaving the extra cash sitting in my account.
If looking closely at HUR buy and sell patterns, it is evident that there is some manipulation preventing the SP to rise FOR NOW, also evident this pattern cannot last at such undervalued pricing that even anyone targeting a takeover here would fully understand/appreciate! My main point here is don't give away your stock at these stupid levels, personally, I am utilising this time as a unique buying opportunity for which I am certain that I'll be handsomely rewarded, IMHO.
Probably due to the drastic drop in rigs working in america, that and the unknown production rates of WTI at the moment.
Cannot believe this is at 6p levels. My first buy was around 11p several years ago, never thought we'd see those levels again....never mind needing a nearly 100% rise to break even on that. Absolute shocker, gone from my best investment to my worst over the last 2 months. Well and truely in the bottom drawer now.....I'm hoping for a takeover, its the only hope of getting out of this shambles any time soon.
A question:
Brent for many months was between a $5- $10 premium to WTI due to quality .
How has that changed to $1 today ?
25:00 by this year end is very possible here IMO, particularly if the global lockdown process easing continues, even analysts at RBC agree on this PT for HUR, Hurricane stock price has recently been pushed down to very unrealistic levels!
https://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/broker-views/index/date/26-05-2020
"These shares were 64.5p on the eve of First Oil, when HUR had no income, hadn't yet even discovered oil at LC, and wasn't yet producing oil from even one well."
It was a case of irrational exuberance and also buy the story sell the fact and herd instinct unfortunately! Shares are rarely valued on fact , its all to do with emotion......everything from "its a gusher" to "its a dud"!
Ive got burnt by that and was fully expecting £1+ by now
I think you have to put things in context and also look beyond recent events.
Drilling horizontal wells, looking for oil in fractured basement, isn't common place,
it's only HUR and the Norwegians, doing it in UK and Norwegian waters respectively,
surely that alone should tell us something; the risk is greater and yes I am well aware of FB in Vietnam.
It's the law of diminishing returns, marginal gain v effort in; drill a hole, noncommercial, WW, WD... LC? ...
Lots of data, yes, present it to 20 different geologists and you wouldn't get the
same answer from all of them. It's not an exact science, so everyone can have a view, but that's all
it is... Plenty of dissertations on the subject I'd guess. Geology isn't physics.
We have the prophets (not profits) .. foretelling, foreseeing, soothsayers and crystal ball readers.
In philosophical terms, the predictions I read, don't have an existence, so can't be a fact, like the sun
coming up, death and so on....these are "facts" we can assume about the future, these are known as
tautologies, a statement of fact that is true in every possible interpretation.
Months ago I asked the question, which I got well and truly lambasted for; "none of it is a stone cold certainty; the EPS flow rate could stutter, in 1, 2 or even 3 months, we simply don't know" The simplest of open statements, with a variable to consider.
Good for day trading, and for LTH's pipe dreams, oil pipe dreams....and that's it.
Certain drops were disappointments - last year's drilling results and the interference between wells 6 and 7. other drops were due to CV and oil price war . However other drops were by a constant attack on the company. it has been a perfect storm.
at present there is not much difference between market capital and cash. so it is not really valuing the assets. there are the bonds but that is 2 years away.
if/when the production of well 6 increases - there should be an increase in SP. providing oil price stays up.
I think people are, as ever, trying to rationalise the share price movements.
The market is not rational.
These shares were 64.5p on the eve of First Oil, when HUR had no income, hadn't yet even discovered oil at LC, and wasn't yet producing oil from even one well.
How do you explain that?
never, what is your understanding of "subsurface"?
subsurface
NOUN
the stratum or strata below the earth's surface.
And also one or more of the large holders selling down their position. The sp reflects the point at which the market is prepared to absorb very large selling.
@Genghis15, You inaccurately state here that "the SP is where it is today due to subsurface issues".
However please note, HUR problems appear not to be due to subsurface or facilities performance - simply due to the specific issues related to the company having two wells producing in such close proximity.
What fundamentals?
The SP is where it is due to PoO and geological uncertainty, after a string of subsurface disappointments. What will move it significantly upwards (or downwards) is unpredictable, bcos those 2 factors will CHANGE fundamentals.
PoO is of course a basic risk I all oil stocks (tho some here have often overlooked it).
But the SP is where it is today due to subsurface issues. We can try to make our best guesses about those, but they are basically uncertain. This will multibag if those issues resolve, and will fall further if they get worse.
Any other analysis is noise, really.
Algorithmic markets often get ahead of themselves, I agree HUR is now way oversold and big bounce back up to be expected, also longer term, personally remain extremely positive here based on all the facts so far.
HUR SP is now clearly well oversold based on fundamentals, PT for me is 25.00 by year end IMO.
GLA