Hochschild Share Chat (HOC)

Problem is gold and silver a hedge against any sterling weakness but it’s it’s a bad wicket if interest rates rise globally particularly $ rise as it has no yield- just an opinion!

I hear so much bull---t why gold and silver is going to do well. Since 2020 it is underperform all commodities and will continue.

Affirmative MasterRSI, is this is the week that I should liquidate all of my assets and convert it to silver?

Silver is on the rise today $ 21.8885 +0.276 after a couple of days of a small drop

silver intraday chart... http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=PM%3AXAGUSD&width=390&height=230&p=0&t=23

Peel Hunt is one of their corporate brokers so how you think that's an objective bullish sign is beyond me haha.

Also Peel Hunt raises Hochschild mining to 'buy'

spread 112.10 v 112.40p +2.40 (2.18%)
On the rise today, and looking strong even after the spike and lower again.

intraday chart with Fibonacci... https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u=w6TEET3JEr/HoGZefvdoUOgen9twvTQK8%20PpJ10RzRg=

You can thank Peel Hunt buy signal for todays rise, in a sea of red elsewhere, not much joy owning shares at mo , with 2023 prediction of recession on top

HOC wants to fly today already at 114p

Fresnillo up was a gamma or short squeeze, nothing to do with fundamentals and complete opposite of today's hammering of PMs and miners.

Looking over jealously (also have a holding there so not too green eyed). HOC due a few similar days imo.

Slater, I think maybe you miss the key point that Tornadotony points out: hoc isn’t a long term miner like Barrick or Centamin, with long life gold mines, but in essence an exploration company that is very risky. It’s Peruvian mines are running out and it seeks replacements mostly from others’ cast offs like Snip. This is a very difficult game, but IF perchance they get it right and have great luck the company would of course become a lot more valuable. As it is, it is a tired very high cost miner which in these inflationary times is somewhat unfortunate if still worth a punt,

Gold and silver surely have to bounce soon!!

Tony, HOC sure looks cheap at current levels when you zoom out on the chart. Problem is, gold prices are stagnating and silver prices falling in USD but miner costs are up double digit %; that’s all that really matters here.

Looking at the highly suspect intraday movements it appears more like a trading spiv stock than a hold and put away in a drawer for the grandkids.

HOC has always been more difficult to value compared to some of the other precious miners. The Canadian SNIP project has every chance of producing 750,000 ounces of gold for the company in future years. The Brazil mine acquisition is to yield 27% in future production volume and is partially a replacement of its ageing Peru assets that are themselves being extended for several more years. Volcan project in Chile needs water supplies and one idea is to possibly have a desalination plant that supplies the mine and local farmers and population. If that all comes together they have a workhorse mine with 8M ounces of gold and 1.7 g/t is useful for an open pit. Volcan offers another 25% replacement output on the older mines. Overall the company has a continuation strategy that is migrating over time from Peru dominated production into Brazil, Canada and Chile as its major sources of income along with its Argentine mine. The Peru mines once hugely dominating the company will gradually have other national mines in friendly host countries taking greater proportion of the annual outputs. There is perhaps a back drop of decreasing risks for HOC when compared with the two previous years.

Overall HOC is my smallest precious miner investments and I feel the 100-120p range is not to far a good entry to hold.
As for silver and gold prices, nobody knows how well or badly central banks will mange inflation or recessions. For those of us living in the UK, recession risks appear to be rising, our currency is getting weaker, inflation is going through the roof and the geopolitics is not providing much confidence either. On that basis HOC is a decent hold for me. It may not see the dizzy heights of 200p but it should supply a divi and hopefully deliver an inflation breakeven return for those buying the stock at this time.

Silver doing rather well? It’s down more than 20% YoY in an environment in which it’s supposed to thrive. If US enters recession and nominal rates keep rising I really would not want to be long silver or its miners, they will be toast.

It’s not a loss until you sell…

It is frustrating though because there’s the double whammy of subdued PM prices but also miners becoming disconnected from said underlying prices.

HOC is nearly 1/3 of its 2020 share price high and FRES a little over half the price of 2020’s high. Both get routinely mauled double digit % but rarely do either put together a decent run and if they do they always fall back. Initially I attributed this to MM games and hedge funds who want to accumulate on the cheap but I think fundamentally big money just doesn’t buy the “PMs to the moon” story anymore. Judging by the graveyard these miner forums have become, perhaps retail is also eventually coming to that conclusion.

No, I do not buy 1oz silver coins at silly premiums, I buy the cheapest possible and use other strategies like Kinesis and low leverage futures/spreadbets. I have added recently. HOC is another story, I fell for the nonsense about miners offering leverage to silver price gains, bought my core positions in HOC in 2016 and 2017 when silver was between $16 and $18. Well silver is up and I have lost over 50% of investment, terrible.

Surely you’re not buying physical silver? The premiums are nuts, $39 for an Eagle when spot is $22 and you’d be lucky to get 70-80% of spot when selling back to dealer. Felt sorry for those buying physical during silver squeezes when they were led down the garden path by Keith Neumeyer and the 101 silver pumpers/shillers on YouTube. They’re probably sitting on 50% losses now.

I did not say that increased demand sue to solar would propel silver to new highs. It should do in a free market environment where investment demand is also increasing. But that is not what we have, we have a pressure cooker of price suppression that will only rectify when demand significantly overwhelms the bullion bank stockpiles and pricing scheme. As nobody knows if or when that might occur I continue to buy the dips in physical mostly, I stopped adding to HOC some time ago as it has been my worst investment ever.

Breaktwister, if you truly believe the silver price is where it is due to suppression and manipulation alone then increased industrial demand for solar or EV batteries isn’t going to be sufficient to propel it to new all-time highs. You can’t have it both ways…

Negative real rates are supposed to be the perfect environment for PMs yet look their performance. If nominal rates continue to rise and inflation cools (perhaps only marginally) then that would be typically bearish for PMs.

One thing is for sure, smart money is not piling into PMs and miners; although the reasons for that we could debate until the cows come home.

Not sure what planet you are on sometimes Sotolo, real rates are DEEPLY negative and will remain so for some time. The macro environment is extremely bullish for metals especially silver due to the increased use in solar. The problem is that the price is controlled to make sure that the miners can just about stay in business. The West likes to steal assets cheaply you know. This will change at some point when physical demand causes a Comex paper seller to scramble. When, nobody knows.

Slater I agree with all you say apart from I believe the charts show that gold does reflect inflation, just not in the short term but over the longer term. So the question is how much of gold’s rise from 2016 outpacing inflation, means quite a bit of inflation is already in the price, and how much may come in the next few years. Of course the challenge with miners is unlike the metal their costs go up with inflation so over the long term they tend not to make money unless they find more gold, which is a challenging and increasingly expensive process, pushing costs up further, and not to be relied on as Hichschild shows. Billie I think in the short term goals moves not with the rate on Treasuries, but the difference between the 10 year inflation adjusted Treasuries and the interest rate, i.e. whether real interest rates are negative or positive. The impedimental gold recently has been these real rates moving from negative to positive Imho

I think elevated price inflation is here to stay but PM prices move more in tandem with bond yields than anything else like inflation data...US 10 Year Treasury yield continues ticking up so the algos sell PMs, it really is as straightforward as that.

I think the inflation hedge card for gold is dog-eared and almost irrelevant now, I know this opinion is not popular here but look at the evidence.

In USD, gold and silver are down 3% and 20% respectively YoY, I know in GBP that gold is up for the year (silver still down 10% though) but that says more about the collapsing pound than anything else.

I also think that price inflation is just too high for PMs to be considered sufficient hedges anymore...Most people are experiencing 15-20% price inflation so gold and silver cannot match let alone outperform that. This is of course also eroding margins of the miners because their cost price inflation is soaring but PM prices are lagging far behind.

Dark PM’s are stuck for lack of buyers over sellers as many big hedge funds expect inflation to begin to reverse later in the year just as interest rates are rising hitting gold so they are selling in advance imho