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War started *mid to late February
Lack of information in rns is an issue agreed. However management have come out are doing a q&a investor presentation and all the questions will get answered I assume so that seems a responsible and effective way of getting all the information out there to shareholders.
Clearly buying cycle has changed somewhat for farmers. Q4 traditionally quietest quarter so not sure why we would have had a huge carry ons from q4 21. It seems war with Ukraine which started mid to late June had an significant impact in q1. 30kt sold on 28th feb. War started 24th and people were aware of potential a week or 2 before. If I was a farmer and knew Russia supplied a large part of worlds fertilizer and we’re heading to war I’d be trying to stock up on my fertilizer supplies asap. In the month of March we sold 40kt. This ties in with that. Yes First 6 weeks of year sales were up 1000% or whatever it was but these are on very low volumes. Not sure there’s much more to it. Just my opinion of course.
Whether the company knew about the huge increase in sales they were going to get in q1 or not, (I don’t think they did) I don’t really understand why it matters tbh. We’ve sold 117kt going into strongest quarter traditionally. Company stated we’re going to exceed target and ramping up production to 200kt. With 2 price rises already this year. Really not sure what’s not to like?
t1995 without any warning or explanation it looks like sales orders slumped (relatively of course) when the whole world was going mad for fertiliser ... looks weird. Lack of information as usual.
How does anyone know they were carry ons from 2021?
I really should remember that nothing is what it seems when things seem to be going well, they are sure to try to overegg the situation, causing a massive spike and then bringing the house down on those who weren't in the know .
trading4 they should have been transparent and instead of saying there were massive sales in January as the ceo did, simply say they were carry ons from 21. But that wouldn't be like harvest would it ? over promise and underdeliver is their modus operandi (unfortunately)
Sussex…. If Q2 had been 689% up we’d have sold out the mine capacity half way through the year, have a massive backlog of orders and angry customers. Investors would all complain that the product was being sold too cheaply. The sales team would be turning people away and the production contractors and drivers would all be wanting overtime.
Instead we’ll sell out capacity steadily, flattening the production bell curve, all at an increased price to happy customers who’ll return next year with their friends.
Chique, Q1 sales were a 689% increase compared to the same period last year and Q2 was a 165% increase . Hence my comment. As the Russian invasion of Ukraine largely impacted Q2 I was at least hoping for a similar robust sales performance to continue.
Your post most likely an innocent one but have to say you are the only poster that expected better than Q1 sales which were phenomenal :-)
trading4good, who are you calling the trolls? We all know about smalleyus, so the plural concerns me.
I am hoping it is not me, if it is please read my past posts on HMI. Even here I tried to provide a balanced statement. I saw both the financial report for 2021 and the H1 2022 sales. Was not overly happy with both. I was waiting on the results to make a decision to increase my participation. Part of me was hoping that the Q1 sales growth would on a par with those of Q2 and it wasn't. I was hoping that the lack of potash delivery from Belarus through Lithuania would have caused the Brazilian farmers to rush to HMI, as an alternative. In fact the supply chain problems should have been been more beneficial for HMI in Q2 than Q1.
I am a LTH and work on macro economic issues. I am not close enough to the company to use it as a play.
Wonderful, and they did say for Q2/22 '....Harvest sold 47,339 tonnes....' is that a first, Harvest saying how much they 'sold'?
But how much did they say they 'sold' in Q1/22?
The answer is somewhere between 0t and 70,200t.
Not sure I follow with the lack of sustained sales in Q2. Obvisouly we had some pull forward of demand q1 as farmers wanted to get ahead and guarantee fertilizer supplies. However at 47kt tonnes for q2- is 165% increase on q2 2021- after the pull forward of some orders in q1 this year. Pretty impressive if you ask me.
117kt for the year is already a 40% increase on last years total 85kt and we’ve 6 months of the year left- with traditionally q3 being the quarter we sell the most product. Company stating we will exceed 150kt. Even if we matched the 47kt of q2 in q3 we’re sat at 164. Add in q4 and I would imagine 175-180 kt is a very realistic expectation. If we achieve those numbers- q2-q3 and q4 sales would equate to a 35% increase on full year 2021 85kt figure. This is all after the big q1 70kt update. So for kp fertil product is clearly growing on its own merit from farmers who have tried previous years and every single one comes back for more.
Don’t like predicting share prices too often but I suspect those buying and holding this for the next 3 years will see £150m mcap+ and up near £1 share
reasonable summary Sussex engineer .. but I'd add that there generally is a seasonal effect in sales as a rule here, and that my guess is Swingy won't be far off - a small bit too bullish maybe - with his prediction of annual sales of 200,000 t .. and given the revenue and profitability maths around that, 10-11p currently is just far too low a s/p for hmi.l.. so the markets being awful right now is a big factor in this s/p lowness imho.. eg in decent/good markets I think this s/p would be in the 14p -18p range now.. and how bad the markets might be in the second half of this year is a more a pressing question in my mind than will hmi.l broadly deliver what I expect in the second half.
Everything has a price level. The upset appears to be the constant draining of money by senior management and the lack of continued sales in Q2, compared to the great performance in Q1. The hidden good news is that the company has written off the legal case, at the request of the auditors, that could come back in and boost income at a later date.
or top up instead of locking away.. and in the 10'sp I just couldn't resist doing my first top up in ages here..
While I'm very cautious on overall market over summer, 10's p here was just too tempting for me to resist.. and if it goes lower again i'd add more again back too ( gutted as i am by the current share price, I believe strongly in this share now and have the patience and deepish pockets to take advantage of price weakness here generally )
Interims in 3 months!
This market is barmy, news good or bad and shares are getting hammered on very little volume. It's no wonder people are reluctent to invest at the moment. A cynic might consider the market is somewhat manipulated.
This is a lock away and forget for 6 months now.......