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Thanks whl2
T1995
If you go on the ADVFN site there's a new thread created today where you can post questions
Gotabesirius, what’s the best way to submit any questions we have?
See post on ADV.. from the company
Asking for questions for up coming interview.....
I'd encourage you to engage with the company...as I have. Then you'll have your answer
gotabesirius your moniker is a sad reminder of a particularly atrocious bit of investment for some people. I would echo the question as to what is a positive response to the question of the selling price of kpfertil ? Not what the future market cap might be if all goes to plan.
Imagine when we get some limestone in there as an added bonus :-)
Next year sometime according to Brian
Thanks. That really highlights the importance of the price per ton.
just looked - yes 40 and also 45
I doubt it as it's a bit high 40
Chique - do you have a p:e of 40 in your calculator? I keep losing the link. what does 200KT with a p/e of 40 come out as?
by year end we should be picking up some forward PE rating given the company has proved it can deliver substantial net profit making sales
I will be very very surprised if our share price isn't WELL OVER the 26p you suggest
Verde's current p:e is 44.55 (source google npk tsx search).
Minimum. And double that in 12 months.
Thanks for the correction. If all plays through by year end this should be around £50m market cap
A better question is what is verdes current forward PE which is what you have worked out for HMI. The answer I'd around 7 for verde.
so what was the feedback?
Mike, I asked investor relations this morning if circa US$80-$100 was around about the wholesale price so far this year and I got a very positive response back.
In all fairness, as I've said before, if you consider last year globally, blended NPK fertilizer was selling at around $400 per tonne. This year it's selling for circa $1000 per tonne so far. Kp fertil has around 10% of the recognized units that a blended fertilizer has. so you can apply a 90% discount rate to this product on the global market. (However it has many other minerals and trace elements which help balance the soil, which makes it a much better product per unit, but lets keep it simple).
So with the above in mind...... NPK blended fertilizer last year was circa $400 per tonne. Apply the above discount for KP Fertil and you get $40 per tonne which just happens to be the recognized price in the results for 2021. Now apply the same methodology to this year and KP fertil should be trading at around $100 per tonne. However I think $80 is probably nearer the mark given it's a newish product and looking for market exposure/share.
So if we presume Hmi match H2 last year (worst case) it takes 2022 production to 170k tonnes. Multiply by US$80 and you get annual turnover of US13.6m, less opex of around USS2m and administration and running costs at circa US$3M. You are left with cash flow of circa US$8m and a PE of 3 at current valuation.
Personally I think production will come in at nearer 200k.....but you get the picture. What is Verde's current PE?
actual cash cost per ton is 12 AUD as it contains 20% depreciation etc
*Declared tonnes sold
Revenue works out exactly as expected based on declared shares sold and the expected price per tonne.
Cost per tonne works out at slightly less than $15aud
This bodes extremely well for the coming year.
If we sell double last years tonnes and reach 170,000 tonnes and assume a modest 25% price increase we are looking at revenue of at least $12m aud this year and probably cost per tonne of approx $10 per tonne or $1.7m total so a massive gross profit increase.