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;-) Like I said, i went for the option where there are current facts and figures on which to draw a realistic valuation for just one arm of the operations based on todays market. If they pull it off the market potentially grows 5 times in the uk alone as if its cost effective it could be the fastest most effective way to cure patients of leukemia which could actually save the NHS if you take a holistic look at the cost of treatment without using bone marrow.
That said.... The mice I dont really want to speculate, again however any rough valuation blows away the market cap,and we know they have already been using the mice...
You can buy existing mice from other companies for like $1k and I doubt they are as good as ours. from google a litter is average 7 pups, 10 litters per female a year and takes 12 weeks to mature.... If they have the orders they could breed 100's of thousands of mice a year, I dont imagine much difficulty getting customers considering they are useful in many fields not just leukemia, also Covid-19 for testing antibodies, vaccines, CDX......
Really depends on the orders coming in but I imagine some of the big pharma will be buying these mice by the thousands, if the profit per mouse is somewhere in the £500 mark then selling 50k of these will mean in mice alone they cover their market cap.... Just in mice... Something they never actually intended to sell, it was only for internal development until they realised how good they were.
Absolutely JHFH, these are the sort of calculations guesstimations that give you an indication of the companies potential.
If we’ve developed further improvements the our already ground-breaking mice how do you value that? Well, speculating at their impact let’s say that they Reduce the pre-clinical testing period by half. Let’s suggest that the pre-clinical testing with our mice becomes so ruthlessly deep and affective that is significantly reduces the chances of failure during human trials. Let’s say that as a result of our incredible mice testing human trials half in timescales as less work is needed to tweak it as they’ve got it so right in pre-clinicals.
How much is that worth to a single Pharma who spends tens and sometimes hundreds of mIllions throughout the drug development process?
How much is that worth to a number of pharmas? Many big pharmas? Most big pharmas?
Why wouldn’t they all want the mice?
So, I want an update on our mice developments with GlobalCo. What additional drugs and treatments are we able to test and model on the even newer and even more improved super mice?
Great to see the norm for the board again.
Pingu, nice to see some science, maths and facts coming back to the board :-)
I did some really rough back of the napkin maths a while ago to see if hemo was undervalued when it was like 2p, some of its guesstimation some of its based on a very quick google.
I picked the Hu-PHEC pipeline because it looked close to stage 1 clinical trials, and now looks like will be starting in the next few months.
Considering Hemogenx approach and lets just pick ONE disease leukaemia (This has wider applications)
Lets narrow it down to JUST the UK where over 2,000 people in the UK are in need of a bone marrow or stem cell transplant every year.
That number would be much higher if bone marrow transplant was a first line treatment, because of complications its not the first line.
Now look at the cost which is about £200k per patient. So there is maybe £400mil being spent on bone marrow transplants in the UK in a year? Now in terms of royalties, lets assume something like Hemos Hu-PHEC became the norm in this scenario your talking what? No idea what the % would be, lets call it 10% for easy maths, £40m per year for licencing their treatment thats about to go into Phase 1? When the market cap today is only £28M
Now consider: I picked UK because its much much smaller than the US so the numbers of treatments here is tiny in comparison.
I picked 2k people require the treatment AT PRESENT, in reality because the patients own cells are used the risk from rejection or complications which limit this as a treatment option disappear, so this moves from almost a last option to a first line option.
With what 10k+ people diagnosed a year with leukaemia the market gets alot bigger.
That said, I am not a scientist or a doctor, just a keyboard warrior with some money to invest. My first aim is to protect my investment which means investing where the risk is low. Based on just ONE single strand of work that Hemo are working on the potential market in JUST the uk is more than the current paper value of Hemo PER YEAR.
Include the USA or CDX or bring in Lupus treatments or perhaps some Covid work............
@delano on your suggestion I have read your previous posts. When the sp was about 7.40 you said:
"The covid ramp has pushed this to fair value" and
"At 2p the company was way oversold. Current levels about right. Not a short term play here."
with no fundamentals having changed, other than an extension, and the price now lower than your previous comments you're now saying:
"29m is too high for now" and
"This has already multi bagged ..... and not on the back of reality. Covid hype. This will move higher when human trials work. It is a gamble until that time. This was a bargain at 2p but not now..."
So exactly how are you suggesting:
"Mine is a balanced view as always"
What a load of bs.
So let me get this straight. You invested 2yrs ago when HEMO was literally at the outset of designing a product portfolio. Before any positive testing results. Before the mice were developed. At 2p a share.
But now, after HEMO has reached the cusp of quite frankly a transformational period for the company, products lined up knocking on the door of phase 1 testing, with exemplary results throughout the pre-clinical testing, its “too risky”?
Someone needs to stop telling porkies. Or needs to give up the game!
And sorry, if GlobalCo says no? How much confirmation do you need! Read that last RNS again! Two years in and then they decide its not for them?!?
Are you being serious?
I know lots of pharmas have humanised mice. But I don’t think you understand how good ours are.
One of the main updates I’d like to hear is the improvements made to the mice as part of the GlobalCo deal agreed in October. I expected an update to come with the GlobalCo announcement and the CDX work. I hope something is released soon.
Lots of pharma companies have humanised mice. I agree with the other points you make that’s why I said I’m waiting for human trials. 29m is too high for now. Nothing achieved as of yet but this is work in progress. I need to see far more before adding. This is Red or Black at the moment. Put another way, if the global co say no, this is back to a penny. I’m running free so am will to spin the wheel.
Delano. Do you understand the phenomenal powers of the humanised mice? One key feature is that they allow significantly more testing and validation than any other animal testing out there. These pre-clinical tests provide and a significantly enhanced chance of human trials succeeding - proving the treatment is successful in said mice.
Why would you wait until an official announcement to invest on triple the SP when the details of potential success are right in front of you?
CDX, proven to work on ALL and in particular AML, which has no other treatment currently apart from chemo and radiotherapy. What would you say that is worth?
And our £29m MCAP is too high? On a single Successful treatment alone that gets blown out of the water.
What about the HuPECH stem cell therapy being Developed and delivered via ORGS through their point of care hospital partnerships?
What about our HEMO Car T Cell therapy? A version currently sold by Novartis at $375k a pop.
What about our mice? How did Eli Lilly swoop from nowhere to speed through pre-clinicals to reach human testing of neutralising antibodies So fast?
One central theme (well 2)... neutralising anti-bodies.... and ApbHC.
DYOR.
Day traders... lol.... none of what you say here is true. Mine is a balanced view as always. I can assure you I don’t need a lower price. I won’t be buying here until the human trials start at the very earliest. GLA
Makes me laugh, when people say I've held for a long time. Then turn around and say negative things against the share. You can spot the day traders or people trying it on to get a lower price!!. Suggest you check your history Delano as it shows your plans of getting in prices!!
@jester.... I have reduced significantly but still an investor here.
I have held Hemo for a long time if you read my posts. This has already multi bagged ..... and not on the back of reality. Covid hype. This will move higher when human trials work. It is a gamble until that time. This was a bargain at 2p but not now.... GLA
Sell up then dont tell us.. some people need their head testing if they invested on a gamble
Spot on. You will probably get some stick now! A few people on here are very sensitive to anyone not in agreement with their views. It is not clear at all that this going well. GLA.
HEMO a gamble? If your investment timescale is a week maybe. If you’re investing for 12-18m then I have not found any other share with as high a Multi-bag potential with such little downside risk. DYOR.
Mcap too high at the moment. New shares to hit the SP if agreed raise happens. This is becoming a gamble Red or Black? Global co has been talking about for two years now. Little disappointing to be honest. Not for the faint hearted this one.