Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Second drill at 60p?
I'm not with you on 60p if 1st drill fails. I used to read all the posts here - stopped a while ago - way too much positivity for my taste.
Whilst the price would clearly drop substantially I’d be amazed if it dropped that low with other sites still to explore. I’d certainly be adding at that kind of price. Given the experience and knowledge gained with this well I’d remain confident of a significant commercial discovery in the following months. I’m sure some would sell but many others would buy on a large price drop at this point.
skittish. Not deramping. I am heavily invested here. Significant. But its a binary risk. It will either shoot up or fall back to 4p. Thats just a fact. If the RNS says "guys, im afraid only minute quantity of He at 0.01%,, it will collapse to 4p and we hope/pray for the other two wells. Thats just fact. I think we all know that? Ive been invested since Feb. I would hope those who bought in at >20p would also know that.
Odysseus07, didn't mean to offend, but you just appeared a little de rampy ... 4p and all that.
I think that that prospect is some way off, to say the least.
I suspect, even if Tai-1 is a "duster" we will still be around 20p after a few days, even if there were to be a sharp fall after any initial news.
However bearing in mind this is the first drill in a 3/4 well programme, and He 1 is already funded for further drills after that, that we have already found 2.2% He @ 70M, and also helium springs 20km SE of us have been flowing 10.6% He for the last 60 years+ (likely 600,000 years+ IMHO) I think Tai-1, even if not a rip roaring success, will have found enough to prevent the share price from falling from its current levels.
Personally I think Tai-1 will have found enough to be considered a rip roaring success.
If so I would consider that all the calculations done to date of valuations will be so much waste paper.
That we have licenced most of the potential source area for what is a unique global asset, and that other sources of He are likely to be running low (very low) with the ending of mass gas extraction shortly after 2030/2035 could mean that Rukwa is the only large scale source of He from 2035 onwards. He1 is of course reliant on the good offices of the Tanzanian government and people.
I suspect on a major find everything will be reappraised.
And the very active and large scale trading continues without a TR1.
Something like around 7% of the company over just the last 2 days, and that is even without news.
Never a TR1 indicating an increased holding since IPO...
I suspect (but have no evidence, save the lack of any TR!, and the large scale trading) that mass accumulation is taking place, but that the party (or parties) involved have no intention of filing a TR1. Of course the company will say that they've got it covered in the ability to refuse to register the holding(s); but my view is a bit like the bank and the impercunious debtor - if the debtor owes the bank £1M, it is the debtor who is worried, if the debtor owes £100M then it is the bank which is worried.
No doubt it will all come out in the wash.
Feeling upbeat, and I suspect after DM's latest "David Attenborough" style clip, he is also, otherwise why do it?
@BigPlan. You have me wondering now..
I think a Tai discovery derisking the basin will upgrade the CoS on each well, so I expect the unrisked value to remain the same (unless vol% increases) and risked values to increase.
Page 1 of each note..
http://www.helium-one.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/21-03-17-H-P-Update.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2MJEEHJSTn7kmTpW2cScBlZES5EfsYj6XdvPpogMJJbHT3GcdC2SeLJ0M
http://www.helium-one.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/21-05-24-Hannam-Note.pdf
@technical: I had 27000 and derisked/top sliced 90% of capital last time it hit 26p a few weeks back. It's exclusive to you ATEOTD, and only you. Some dodgy Aussie fund manager's short position would certainly NOT sway me in this instance. Whether or not I could afford to lose a few grand would though!
@skittish... why be such an a hole?
You have no idea about me? im atwork and mis-spelled. Are you really so narrow minded? Wow.
I sold 50% @ 27.94p on 7th July and bought back plus some @ 22p a week later - sitting tight now - holding for helium.
Rutka don't exist so will not produce commercial helium.
Rukwa does exist and likely will, shortly.
Great to see the informed joining in, albeit with limited effort.
@Odessey Hold the line, may have lost the battle but not the war :)
@BigPlan
After reading your post again I see a different picture.
21p for other sites inc cash, plus today ~5.5p for Tai, total 26.5p
@Xerxes, its got a while before drilling starts and still things to sort. ADV worth reading the research notes
hey xerxes. Whats your plan/back-up in case rutka shows no commercial He? and goes back down to 4p or so....?
Just a question - from Alexander the Great ;)
@dai, hahaha, im balls deep here mate, no real spare funds until this is a winner unless i top slice or spreadbet it :)
@dai yeh agreed hopefully the value comes in more.
Also DM did say that if Tai comes successful it derisks the entire Rukwa basin. Does that mean the valuations of all components become unrisked, at which case the SP can fly. That's what I want to know from the next H&P report.
@Xerxes, after I have bought in I will let you know, I dont want you to push the price up :)
@BigPlan, Mmm, yes it could be read as you say, I need to improve there..
I was just saying H&P have Tai unrisked at 31p so taking 27p to derisk is not bad, it is close to the ATH.
If Tai is successful 52p, now that I am not convinced. :)
If successful my research suggests Tai could have 8-10% helium, and then speculation of a $200b resource will be in the air.
I hope so anyway, as its all speculation :)
@Dia,
I agree with some of what you're saying however would challenge the below quote:
"We are close to 27p just 4p from Tai's unrisked value so its not a bad price to de-risk"
So using H&Ps report and numbers purely and not speculating any further, they have the whole NAV at risked 25p. Of this 25p, 4p relates to Tai. They have Tai unrisked at 31p.
If Tai is successful, surely the value of the SP will be 52p (i.e. Tai's 31p plus all other drill targets risked value of 21p).
Therefore from today's 26p share price, the potential is to double if Tai comes in successful exactly to the numbers H&P state and should the other 3 targets come successful, then its £1plus right?
I have taken your quote as saying is Tai comes successful, the SP will go up to 27p plus 4p extra. Apologies if that's not what you meant however.
BP
Not sure why, in a land of 60m+ people, you're nervous about one very small short being opened. Seems akin to going outside and worrying about being hit by a meteor. You do realise shorts are a pretty common event, and as pointed out previously, there is a reasonable chance that short was opened simply to counteract a holding thereby mitigating risks both ways.
Hi Dai, interested in hearing the other stock with multibag chance plz mate
@Technical
My opinion, only an opinion as I dont really know
Nothing has changed this week other than that tweet has ignited interest again. That hash tag Discovery was just referring to the discovery James made IMO, and what He1 will make at some point, which well/site and how many is the question, again IMO.
So same risks as before the tweet..
Since we are at a high the shorter is probably betting on low 20s as thats where the price was before the tweet, especially if they have the same opinion I have about the tweet.
If you look at KETL on the dates the shorter took positions the stock did fall a little, but overall the stock went up, so they were'nt there to make a big killing, may be they lost out
We are close to 27p just 4p from Tai's unrisked value so its not a bad price to de-risk if your up, and especially if it gives you a free ride, plus there is another share with multi bagging potential available at the moment..
If your shares were funded by profits is one thing, or by needed money another, and a loan something else..
Write down the different scenarios
100% or top sliced
Tai Discovery
Tai Dry, next drill a discovery......
Some guys here invested with the intention of buying more than they intended to hold, sold those extra to get a free ride or reduce their risk.. most just dont say..
No disrespect, Technical, but if the same post that you just published was published by any of these guys I would start to worry. Until then, just read the previous comments posted here and make your mind up, I would say. IMHO and DYOR.
SGF
DBD
Dai
Seismic
BP
Myoung
PJohnsey
Noob
Inthevoid
...and many other reliable contributors my memory is too old to remember right now (apologies my dears).
It sounds like you are not feeling comfortable with the risk here. This is a high risk stock with a lot of un-knowns. Trust your gut as it probably knows more about your situation than any of us. Good luck.
My opinion is... do your own research and create your own investment strategy, including any de-risking, accordingly. I don't think anyone else can really inform regarding a comfortable point to top-slice, exit, etc. as it'll be individual to you.
For what its worth though, based on my research and understanding of the company and its fundamentals, the short position mentioned has not changed my own strategy to hold.
Lots of opinions and discussion in the open thread. Not really sure what else to add to that honestly.
Bit nervous about the short that it was opened on the same day as our last twitter video. Do they know something that we don't? There was another poster here who was also suspicious of the twitter video. Not sure what to do with my 23946 stock holdings. Thinking of top slicing about 50% to be on the safe side. Opinions are welcome.