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As in its not binary because a second drill is planned if that does well the sp could be 60p. Its way from binary. The balance is clear. People want it to be binary because thats easier to understand and dont like rigour. I did post a link with the COS in btw.
Thanks for reading my post telling me you don't read posts. ;)
Whilst the price would clearly drop substantially I’d be amazed if it dropped that low with other sites still to explore. I’d certainly be adding at that kind of price. Given the experience and knowledge gained with this well I’d remain confident of a significant commercial discovery in the following months. I’m sure some would sell but many others would buy on a large price drop at this point.
skittish. Not deramping. I am heavily invested here. Significant. But its a binary risk. It will either shoot up or fall back to 4p. Thats just a fact. If the RNS says "guys, im afraid only minute quantity of He at 0.01%,, it will collapse to 4p and we hope/pray for the other two wells. Thats just fact. I think we all know that? Ive been invested since Feb. I would hope those who bought in at >20p would also know that.
Odysseus07, didn't mean to offend, but you just appeared a little de rampy ... 4p and all that.
I think that that prospect is some way off, to say the least.
I suspect, even if Tai-1 is a "duster" we will still be around 20p after a few days, even if there were to be a sharp fall after any initial news.
However bearing in mind this is the first drill in a 3/4 well programme, and He 1 is already funded for further drills after that, that we have already found 2.2% He @ 70M, and also helium springs 20km SE of us have been flowing 10.6% He for the last 60 years+ (likely 600,000 years+ IMHO) I think Tai-1, even if not a rip roaring success, will have found enough to prevent the share price from falling from its current levels.
Personally I think Tai-1 will have found enough to be considered a rip roaring success.
If so I would consider that all the calculations done to date of valuations will be so much waste paper.
That we have licenced most of the potential source area for what is a unique global asset, and that other sources of He are likely to be running low (very low) with the ending of mass gas extraction shortly after 2030/2035 could mean that Rukwa is the only large scale source of He from 2035 onwards. He1 is of course reliant on the good offices of the Tanzanian government and people.
I suspect on a major find everything will be reappraised.
And the very active and large scale trading continues without a TR1.
Something like around 7% of the company over just the last 2 days, and that is even without news.
Never a TR1 indicating an increased holding since IPO...
I suspect (but have no evidence, save the lack of any TR!, and the large scale trading) that mass accumulation is taking place, but that the party (or parties) involved have no intention of filing a TR1. Of course the company will say that they've got it covered in the ability to refuse to register the holding(s); but my view is a bit like the bank and the impercunious debtor - if the debtor owes the bank £1M, it is the debtor who is worried, if the debtor owes £100M then it is the bank which is worried.
No doubt it will all come out in the wash.
Feeling upbeat, and I suspect after DM's latest "David Attenborough" style clip, he is also, otherwise why do it?
@BigPlan. You have me wondering now.. I think a Tai discovery derisking the basin will upgrade the CoS on each well, so I expect the unrisked value to remain the same (unless vol% increases) and risked values to increase.
@technical: I had 27000 and derisked/top sliced 90% of capital last time it hit 26p a few weeks back. It's exclusive to you ATEOTD, and only you. Some dodgy Aussie fund manager's short position would certainly NOT sway me in this instance. Whether or not I could afford to lose a few grand would though!
@dai yeh agreed hopefully the value comes in more.
Also DM did say that if Tai comes successful it derisks the entire Rukwa basin. Does that mean the valuations of all components become unrisked, at which case the SP can fly. That's what I want to know from the next H&P report.
@BigPlan, Mmm, yes it could be read as you say, I need to improve there.. I was just saying H&P have Tai unrisked at 31p so taking 27p to derisk is not bad, it is close to the ATH.
If Tai is successful 52p, now that I am not convinced. :) If successful my research suggests Tai could have 8-10% helium, and then speculation of a $200b resource will be in the air. I hope so anyway, as its all speculation :)
On tai-1 hitting the other numbers shouldn’t change intrinsically IMV, but they are bound to as the general likelihood of mineable quantities eksewhere would go up, so 50p now you’d think would go to 60-70p as others have stated.
However, depending on the quality of the discovery, speculation might drive the SP much higher - into 3 figures, again as others have stated
Not sure why, in a land of 60m+ people, you're nervous about one very small short being opened. Seems akin to going outside and worrying about being hit by a meteor. You do realise shorts are a pretty common event, and as pointed out previously, there is a reasonable chance that short was opened simply to counteract a holding thereby mitigating risks both ways.